1 minute ago, eaim said:

There's nothing wrong with keeping informed, people can stay informed without watching news channels 24/7.

Please don't become dependent on Faceplant!  More false info doesn't help things.

Not sure if this has already been posted.  My apologies if it has.

But here is Bill Gates EXPLICIT call-to arms 5 years ago (2015) warning about the dangers of a coming pandemic, and the then complete lack of SUFFICIENT preparedness (at every level) for dealing with this eventuality. 

<iframe width="1280" height="720" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/6Af6b_wyiwI" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Gates could not have been clearer, and more level-headed. 

But .......

Nothing much happened in the way of urgently responding to Gate's warming.

Moving to now, I speculate that one of the reason's why China's response has been so swift, decisive, and competent is that the Chinese leadership have a VERY different outlook to the West on preparing the civilian population to survive a Nuclear War.

The West has the general attitude that such a conflagration is simply not a survivable scenario, and that therefore, if we (the West) can assure any transgressor that they also will NOT escape the similar fate of annihilation, then ANY would-transgressor will "surely" conclude (because they "surely" are "also" very rational, sensible people who would think "just like us" in this scenario, that it will be pretty stupid to engage in such a war.  No problem then!  Everyone's on the same page, huh!

Therefore, in the USA and many other Western countries (UK for example) there is actually very little worst-case civil defense planning, or even a national budget, or full-scale trials or practical simulations (even at just a state-wide level) to prepare - or TEST the efficacy of the preparation of the population for such an Armageddon scenario.  Sure, there is usually local-hospital planning for limited scenarios like an isolated terrorist incident, or aircraft or train crash, or mass-shooting events, or tornadoes or flooding, but no scenarios of nation-wide "wholesale enemy destruction".  It won't be happening!  Nobody would do anything so stupid!  So don't waste money.  And don't alarm the general populace.

The problem is that ALL of this very logical thinking  rests on VERY frail  "assumptions" that are widely regarded as facts, when they absolutely are NOT!

Both the Chinese and the Russians consider a nuclear war to be survivable.  These will, they concede, certainly have devastating effects on the civil populations in the metropolises, but - given sufficient prior planning and the effort on execution of these plans - the Chinese political belief is that it will be possible to ensure the large-scale survival of many of the population.  A scenario that will decidedly NOT be the same for the enemy (read USA).  

To this end, the Chinese have built - literally, and country-wide - THOUSANDS of kilometers of deep, special-purpose, military grade tunnels for safekeeping of their military assets, and also the key civilian assets and political leadership at local level. These tunnels are not just converted coal mines and the like.  They have been specifically designed for this purpose.  And they have been constructing these tunnels for over TWENTY years.

The USA by contrast?  Has done absolutely NOTHING in this regard!  They have a lone NORAD command center buried in a mountain, a few nuclear missiles in hardened silos, or on submarines, or flying command centres in the air.  That's it.  Civil Defense? And a resilient infrastructure for the aftermath?  Non-existent!

So to bring my ramble to its point:

The Chinese tactics for so successfully dealing with the Corona pandemic (they have now - unequivocally - set the Gold Standard in this regard) is "just" a NATURAL outcome (and a crucially important validating test!) of the success of their active, robust civil-defense planning for handling the outcome of MAJOR country-wide catastrophes - be it germ warfare, or nuclear holocausts.  You handle one competently, and then you got a pretty good handle on the other as well.  You can see a similar thread in the fast, aggressive Russian response to this pandemic.  The same thinking applies there.

Time for the West to wake up from their slumber.  Civil defense is not a capability you can just order off the shelf.  Or develop once the situation arises.  China's success in this matter arise from at least 20 years of sustained effort to this area.

<End of ramble>

 

Edited March 17, 20206 yr by Jonnoxx

1 hour ago, Jonnoxx said:

Moving to now, I speculate that one of the reason's why China's response has been so swift, decisive, and competent is that the Chinese leadership have a VERY different outlook to the West on preparing the civilian population to survive a Nuclear War.

 

It’s less to do with nuclear war and a lot more to do with having had to deal with SARS in a much higher way than we in the west did. Taiwan, South Korea and Japan all had plans put in place after the last major outbreak that they were able to enact.

Edited March 17, 20206 yr by goates

57 minutes ago, Jonnoxx said:

Moving to now, I speculate that one of the reason's why China's response has been so swift, decisive, and competent is that the Chinese leadership have a VERY different outlook to the West on preparing the civilian population to survive a Nuclear War.

 

This would be the China from which previous epidemics  came due to their unhealthy markets and failed to change how they worked, the China that initially covered up the virus, the China that charged the doctor who tried to warn people, the China that issued artificially low figures about the rate of infection and deaths before finally making a big correction to their figures after the peak had passed? If China had got off its backside earlier then perhaps we wouldn't now be suffering this virus. 🤬

29 minutes ago, SamYeager said:

This would be the China from which previous epidemics  came due to their unhealthy markets and failed to change how they worked, the China that initially covered up the virus...

I think it's absolutely right to blame China (the government, not the people, who are suffering) for their role in this.

But at some future point, some pathogen will bubble up that has nothing to do with any nation or government or set of cultural practices - just some sort of hot zone thing that gets loose.

Which means that, whoever or whatever is to blame, we need to get much, much better at how we plan and respond.

A bunch of global missteps have made this much, much worse than it needed to be.

Edited March 17, 20206 yr by Alan_A

26 minutes ago, Alan_A said:

 

Which means that, whoever or whatever is to blame, we need to get much, much better at how we plan and respond.

A bunch of global missteps have made this much, much worse than it needed to be.

I remember to have written around 2002/03, in a former life, that we should fear the day when a virus would emerge with the lethality/incurability of the HIV and the contagious nature of a flu-like virus. We are not here yet (hopefully) but we are balbutiating to respond to a biological threat oft the COVID-19 magnitude. We don't even have a consensus on global solutions re: the hot debates about herd immunity, confinement etc.

Edited March 17, 20206 yr by domkle

3 hours ago, goates said:

It less to do with nuclear war and a lot more to do with having had to deal with SARS in a much higher way than we in the west did. Taiwan, South Korea and Japan all had plans put in place after the last major outbreak that they were able to enact.

Totally agree the experiences from SARS directly informed the current response (this for everybody).  The problem for the West is that while they did indeed also learn from SARS, and also Ebola, they FAILED to apply the lessons in any meaningful way (ie have a well-considered national action-plan for this now-recognised possibility) when the next pandemic (Corona) struck.  This wasn't even just a possibility.  It was a certain eventuality!  Just nobody knew how, or when.

Why is that?

Why do intelligent nations SEE the lesson from others - right in front of them - and then FAIL to apply this knowledge???

I circle back to my thesis that it is mainly ONLY the nations that have PERSONALLY experienced the visceral pain of TOTAL DESTRUCTION on their HOMELAND, that react with REAL vigour to this tragedy. 

The others only TALK about what they would do.  I argue that the USA and the UK would have a very different attitude if they had experienced actual invasion on their home-soil and the dreadful loss of MILLIONS of their populace, and the total gutting of their civil defense infrastructure.  They would NEVER forget that.  And would be DETERMINED to make sure they are prepared for the next time! 

Russia, China, Korea, Japan, Finland understand the awful consequences of war at this visceral level.  The general populace of the USA and the UK do not have this experience.  The UK were bombed (and only slightly compared to Europe) and though threatened, were not invaded.  Big difference to the national psyche when that actually happens.

 

2 hours ago, SamYeager said:

This would be the China from which previous epidemics  came due to their unhealthy markets and failed to change how they worked, the China that initially covered up the virus, the China that charged the doctor who tried to warn people, the China that issued artificially low figures about the rate of infection and deaths before finally making a big correction to their figures after the peak had passed? If China had got off its backside earlier then perhaps we wouldn't now be suffering this virus. 🤬

All of this may well be true (and it pretty much is!). 

But this line of thinking is both IRRELEVANT and UNHELPFUL!

If the West had the first-class expertise and preparedness that you imply, then the responses in Europe and the USA would have been aggressively faster, and much more decisive.  Instead they have been shamefully INCOMPETENT and BEHIND the curve.  I tip my hat to Italy for their initiative for being the first Western nation to impose a draconian national Chinese-style lockdown.  There was some real political bravery and leadership to do that.  The rest of the mice were stunned that a Western country would get away with doing that to their citizens.  And especially so that it was the Italians - who are (in)famously independent of listening to bureaucrats.  The political leadership by Italy made it easy for other western nations to make similar decisions.

The troubling problem exposed here is that it was the WEST that was caught with their pants down, when it came to both speedily recognizing AND reacting to the first trickles of knowledge of this pandemic that suddenly appeared out of nowhere.  There are NO excuses in this department from the USA and Europe!  They have the epidemiological expertise (the USA is pretty much the world leader in this field.  Well, used to be perhaps, because it is now the Chinese that have the most hands-on experience (in spades!), and used their own home-grown plans to now set the gold standard for how this is dealt with.  And good for them and everyone else that they are now actually actively co-operating (in both directions) with western experts in this field. 

Look at how Russia reacted for example.  No crybaby stuff and loser-nation excuses about "if only the Chinese had been better behaved and given accurate information from the get-go, THEN we would have been OK".  They were on it immediately PRECISELY because they EXPECT - and TRAIN for - the really nasty eventualities that we are in denial of, and have the up-front planning expectation that they are NOT going to get a polite advance-warning from an aggressor.

Why didn't we do the same??

That is my point.

.

Edited March 17, 20206 yr by Jonnoxx

4 hours ago, domkle said:

we should fear the day when a virus would emerge with the lethality/incurability of the HIV and the contagious nature of a flu-like virus

Absolutely.

When I took my hospital staff job, in 1984, there was pretty strong evidence that HIV was very difficult to transmit.  But it wasn't certain, and people, including professionals, were still worried about airborne contagion.  The HIV patients were locked in their rooms behind big purple universal precaution signs, and the staff that went into the rooms wore heavy protective gear.  Some staff refused to go into the rooms at all.  During that summer, we had a hospital strike, and as a techincally-management new hire, I rotated through a bunch of jobs.  One of the least hair-raising - but in some ways most disturbing - was working in food service, where I had to telephone each AIDS patient every day to take their food orders, because we couldn't get food service staff to go into the rooms. Those were some difficult moments...

As it turned out, of course, that level of precaution was unnecessary (and actually cruel, given how sick these people were, and given that there was no treatment except to slow down some of the infections a little).  But I've always remembered that and thought about what it might be if you had an airborne equivalent getting around.

We're not all the way there right now.  But we're in the neighborhood.

3 hours ago, Jonnoxx said:

If the West had the first-class expertise and preparedness that you imply, then the responses in Europe and the USA would have been aggressively faster, and much more decisive.  Instead they have been shamefully INCOMPETENT and BEHIND the curve. 

The strongest possible YES to everything you posted.  Well spoken.

If Asobo are keeping up with this thread...then I'd just like to say for those of us locked at home/respecting the quarantine we are very much looking forward to the next update..even if it's just some screenshots of Alpha testers that is good enough. You folks will help us get through these tough times and i hope people are understanding of the global situation and not demanding too much of you as you're in this together with us all.

Edited March 17, 20206 yr by highflyer2020

The cultural difference between societies exposed to widespread destruction during times of war versus those who haven't is an interesting theory. Probably some merit there.

But to say that the West has not learned any lessons isn't the whole story. There's also the fact that, at least in the US, our government just isn't empowered to do some of the things the Communist Party of China is empowered to do. The Chinese people are not free, nor are they armed. The US government can't just roll out the tanks and guns to FORCE its population into quarantine. We can't just grab doctors and journalists off the street, and we can't just cover up the spread of the virus and lie about the numbers.

I dont think China is setting any kind of "gold standard" unless your definition of gold standard is an totalitarian crackdown.

There's a cost associated with having a free society. I just wish Americans were more responsive to requests to be responsible. If they were, we wouldn't have to scare the ever-loving bejeezus out of them in order to coerce them into doing the right thing. Without that injection of fear, perhaps the markets wouldn't react the way they have, Amazon Prime would still have delivery slots, and grocery stores would still have toilet paper. Among other things.

Edited March 17, 20206 yr by Noodle
Can't say s n a t c h, apparently...

5 hours ago, Jonnoxx said:

The problem for the West is that while they did indeed also learn from SARS, and also Ebola, they FAILED to apply the lessons in any meaningful way (ie have a well-considered national action-plan for this now-recognised possibility) when the next pandemic (Corona) struck.  This wasn't even just a possibility.  It was a certain eventuality!  Just nobody knew how, or when.

 

I can only speak for germany, but so much has happened in the last few days, parties left or right work together today against the virus, i haven't seen that in decades.
Almost unrealistic after all the years of arguing fight they had on TV every night.

1 hour ago, Noodle said:

The cultural difference between societies exposed to widespread destruction during times of war versus those who haven't is an interesting theory. Probably some merit there.

But to say that the West has not learned any lessons isn't the whole story. There's also the fact that, at least in the US, our government just isn't empowered to do some of the things the Communist Party of China is empowered to do. The Chinese people are not free, nor are they armed. The US government can't just roll out the tanks and guns to FORCE its population into quarantine. We can't just grab doctors and journalists off the street, and we can't just cover up the spread of the virus and lie about the numbers.

I dont think China is setting any kind of "gold standard" unless your definition of gold standard is an totalitarian crackdown.

There's a cost associated with having a free society. I just wish Americans were more responsive to requests to be responsible. If they were, we wouldn't have to scare the ever-loving bejeezus out of them in order to coerce them into doing the right thing. Without that injection of fear, perhaps the markets wouldn't react the way they have, Amazon Prime would still have delivery slots, and grocery stores would still have toilet paper. Among other things.

There is very LITTLE philosophical difference between a national Medical emergency, or a Military invasion.

BOTH require an immediate, aggressive, all-out DRACONIAN response - because the outcome (and the enemy) doesn't care about "what your culture or society holds dear".

Lose EITHER of these "wars", and the "culture that you hold dear" is GONE!  Immediately.  And just like that!  There isn't any "in-between" middle-ground.  Ask Poland, Russia, Japan.

Imagine if Germany and Japan had succeeded in WW2, and successfully invaded the USA, we would now have a very different world.

We have to be clear-eyed here about handling dangerous pandemics.  You CANNOT pussy-foot around in a desperate, fast-changing scenario - where every DAY of delay and INDECISION - is ACTIVELY fueling the ebbing tide of opportunity AGAINST you.

The ONLY way to handle a pandemic of this nature (where there is no cure, and scant information about how it is spread, and is spreading) is ISOLATION - as IMMEDIATELY as possible.  Every hour matters!

The Gold Standard is to recognize the enormity of the problem as quickly as possible.  And act as aggressively as necessary.  There is no reward for compromise!  THAT is the Gold Standard.  And is exactly what China did.  Did they make mistakes?  Did they have indecisiveness? And delays?  Could it have been better?  Oh yes.  But compared to the rest of the so-called experts, they got their act together very quickly, and are now coming OUT of the worst part (while the rest of the Western World is still wondering what hit them, and still only ENTERING the initial phase).  The UK is already mentioning the calculation of 250 000 fatalities.

Winston Churchill's famous quote applies “Sometimes doing your best is NOT good enough. Sometimes you must do what is REQUIRED.”

Your statement: "There's a cost RISK associated with having a free society." 

That biggest (and seldom-stated) risk is the LOSS of that society - because NOVEL, previously unexperienced threats can expose inherent weaknesses in the society that make it LESS equipped to deal with the threat it faces.  The (western) jury is still out on the alternative type of society whose structure and philosophy we disdain as inferior "as a matter of principle". 

Darwin stated the survival of a species was proportional to its ability to ADAPT to its CHANGING environment.  This theory applies equally well to the survival of cultures and nations. 

I think the present laid-back laissez-faire outlook of the US civil society of today will be fundamentally changed after they have finally won the war against this pandemic.  It will certainly not be "the genteel self-indulgent society as before." 

The same changed attitude will apply to every successful survivor nation of this pandemic.  The more harrowing their struggle to succeed against the odds, the more deeply this emotion will be institutionalised into their national psyche.

I could be very wrong, but at the moment, this is my 2c

 

Edited March 18, 20206 yr by Jonnoxx

7 minutes ago, Jonnoxx said:

BOTH require an immediate, aggressive, all-out DRACONIAN response - because the outcome (and the enemy) doesn't care about "what your culture or society holds dear".

 

Sorry, but I don't consent.

We live in a free country where we are not subject to the whims of a totalitarian government. We recognize that we are all created equally and endowed by our Creator by certain unalienable rights. Liberty among them. The US Constitution restricts the government's power, ensuring that the power rests with the governed.

You're wildly exaggerating the danger. Our culture will not be "gone"...nothing could be further from the truth. We're going to be just fine. Lots of people are going to be infected. Some will be sick. Relatively few will die. Relatively few might mean hundreds of thousands over time.

That's unfortunate, but we don't give up our rights because of it. I understand your emotional argument, but my rational answer is no.

1 hour ago, Noodle said:

You're wildly exaggerating the danger. Our culture will not be "gone"...nothing could be further from the truth. We're going to be just fine. Lots of people are going to be infected. Some will be sick. Relatively few will die. Relatively few might mean hundreds of thousands over time.

This complacency is dangerous! 

What we have before us now is a text-book lesson on the very real danger, and the potential enormity, that a REAL pandemic presents.

It seems possible that this Corona Virus may (hopefully) turn out to be a relatively MILD pandemic.

But the lesson to learn isn't to pat ourselves on the back at our success with the easy stuff.

It's to recognize the GRAVITY of what COULD arise the NEXT time.

Imagine if we were now dealing with the EBOLA virus.  This is an horrific fast-moving virus.  Only luck prevailed in containing the previous outbreaks in Africa.  If we were dealing with an outbreak of this virus in Europe and the USA (the ghettos particularly), there would be an overwhelming state of ABSOLUTE PANIC and social unrest at the progress of the pandemic, when the populace sees an overburdened health service forced to triage the sick. (the very worry that forced Italy's hand).

It is ONLY a matter of time before an even worse pandemic hits the world (and truth be told, there are governments actively working to develop these as weapons of mass civil destruction).  No guesses here, but Russia and China spring to mind.

Complacency and an over-confident Belief that our culture has the INHERENTLY superior structure to be the BEST choice to survive these future threats could well be the DEATH of us!  Just like in the aftermath of any accident or disaster, there must be an audit of what worked well, what was a problem, what was really stupid, and what needs to be done to get on top of these problems in the future.

We may need to make drastic changes AHEAD of this coming curve.  Or else.

If other nations (China being the case in point here) handled this FAR better than we did, then we should try to take (or adapt) those lessons for ourselves.  We need to be enthusiastic about speedily learning from others, and changing ourselves if that is necessary.  There is real virtue in being humble about this.

I suggest the naysayers and Doubting Thomases should watch Bill Gates TED video again.  He's 100% on the money.

Edited March 18, 20206 yr by Jonnoxx