7 hours ago, G-RFRY said:

I suspect MONEY had something to do with it, remember they lost interest in flight simulator and the ACES lost jobs, now they want to launch a new XBOX and outsell PS5 if they can, if it could not go on the new XBOX I don't think Phil would have brought it back.

I think you are talking about something different.  I was just talking about paying for Alpha testing access.

Yeah I’d be amazed if it wasn’t delayed at this point, but really who cares in the grand scheme of things. 

Paying for Alpha access is not going to happen. End of story. 

On 3/13/2020 at 10:52 AM, GlideBy said:

The death rate from Corona is much, much higher than flu.  Huge difference.  

"The death rate from seasonal flu is typically around 0.1% in the U.S., according to The New York Times. 

The death rate for COVID-19 appears to be higher than that of the flu. 

In the study published Feb. 18 in the China CDC Weekly, researchers found a death rate from COVID-19 to be around 2.3% in mainland China. Another study of about 1,100 hospitalized patients in China, published Feb. 28 in the New England Journal of Medicine, found that the overall death rate was slightly lower, around 1.4%.  "

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

Your first link is GoDaddy.com website.  Hardly reliable.

I don't know why you are posting the NCBI link.  That may mean less were infected in China where the test was done.  But then that means the mortality rate is higher than reported, since less actually had it.  And we already had reason to not trust the numbers from China anyway.

Please stop posting it is a hoax.

I don't remember posting a Godaddy link?

I never said the virus is hoax, I said the hype is the hoax.

Quote

COVID-19 DOES NOT have a 2-3% mortality rate. That number comes from the Chinese Wuhan data. The issue is that that number represents mostly sick people tested for the disease versus total deaths. Regrettably, that’s NOT how a mortality rate is calculated, which uses all that have contracted the disease as the denominator.

The outside of Wuhan mortality, where there was wider testing of most that had contracted the disease, was 0.4% based on a report published by the Chinese CDC (7). Mortality on the Princess Cruise outside Japan (the only place so far where you can be sure that you tested all exposed in a closed environment), was 0.85% and only those over 70 died (8). In South Korea, which has tested more than 100,000 people,  the case fatality rate is 0.65% (18). Germany has announced that it’s mortality rate is 0.2% (20). So what’s the real mortality rate? Under 1%. 

https://regenexx.com/blog/coronavirus-myths-debunked/

Well first world problems for me admittedly, but MS2020 is about the last thing on my mind now. I will unfortunately be sticking with FSX on my old machine indefinitely now. A month ago I was really looking forward to building a brand new computer and enjoying MS2020 after running FSX for a decade now on my first generation Core i7 machine that I built back in 2010. Fast forward to today though, and apart from suffering the same fate as anyone in a superannuation fund (read 401K for US readers), I actually had a small separate fund put aside especially to cover my long term transportation needs in retirement and a new computer to replace that ten year old desktop and an eight year old laptop (the latter now held together with Gorilla Tape!!).

But talk about the worst timing on the planet. Literally two days before the markets began crashing, that small fund for the future car and computer decided to close down - not due to any actual problems with the investment - but because they were concerned the stated 0.2% management fees per year were going to have to go up - to 0.4% per year. Two days later, the equities the fund leveraged into dropped like a stone and as of today, that fund would be worth about 70% of what it was a month ago. And now by law they have declared the fund closed and have to dispose of their equities by August. So unless a miracle happens and those equities are recovered in value by August, there goes my computer money. Plus about the length of a car up to around the firewall 😵 (do they still make Smart cars)? 

As i say though, first world problems. I suppose I am lucky that I do not have this virus, though getting toilet paper is another issue perhaps a bit more pressing at the moment than trying to see if the ball on the tennis court 1,500 feet below on the latest MS2020 screen shot is in or out of play. 

There is a problem with using "active" cases in determining fatality rates, since the outcome is as yet unknown. That an MD would use active cases in his analysis makes me think he's a bit of a knucklehead. I also noticed he's been written up on quackwatch.org.

We could try to throw out all confirmed but "active" cases and use only known-outcome cases:

Fatality % = 100 * deaths/(recovered + deaths)

Applying to Diamond Princess (Wikipedia data) we get 100 * 7/(7 + 456) = 1.51%

South Korea (Johns-Hopkins data): 100 * 72/(72 + 510) = 12.37%

These are wildly different results and likely bogus because the useable sample sizes are too small. We also have problems with other data sets because some countries are only testing higher-risk individuals, as compared to widespread testing like in South Korea.

Bottom line is we just don't know yet, we don't have enough good data.

Good article here discussing meaningful statistics on the virus and what we want to know versus what we do know: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

See also: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#correct

23 hours ago, tweekz said:

We are close to Italy here, so that's what I hear most about. The most deaths I read about are people >65. It might be too early to draw definite conclusions, but my common sense tells me that idea sounds about right.

Sure, there will be younger people who die from the virus. There are also 40 year olds who die from a heart attack. But I think there is a tendency.

 

I live at 60 km from the french-italian border 😉.

A chief infectionologist of a hospital in Paris publicly confirmed what I reported yesterday from hearsay in the profession, that they see at a disturbing rate people in their 30ies and 40ies in an extremely serious condition (« gravissime » in French) without any pre-existing pathological or genetic other conditions. Normal young folks. We are now at stage 3  and I feel that the medical professionals are a little unsettled. 

This is not to be argumentative but to say that the recommended precautions are not set up to protect old folks but everybody, even those with little or no interaction with the older population.

 

 

Edited March 15, 20206 yr by domkle

16 hours ago, strider1 said:

I don't remember posting a Godaddy link?

This is a GoDaddy site.  

  

On 3/13/2020 at 7:47 AM, strider1 said:

Coronavirus: ‘Sight of nature nearly brought tears to my eyes’ – after lockdown, people in Chinese cities are getting out, and booking trips again

https://www.scmp.com/lifestyle/travel-leisure/article/3075040/coronavirus-sight-nature-nearly-brought-tears-my-eyes?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_content=article&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1584076375

So that is right up there with someone's blog post.  

 

16 hours ago, strider1 said:

So what’s the real mortality rate? Under 1%.    https://regenexx.com/blog/coronavirus-myths-debunked/

And then you post a blog link.

Do you really think this information is reliable?  You are going to trust one person over organizations like the World Health Organization?  I am one person, should I make a blog post?  Would that convince you?  One doctor said vaccines cause autism, and look how reliable that information was.  When 100 doctors say one thing, and one doctor says something very different, why think that 100 are wrong but that one is right?

 

16 hours ago, strider1 said:

I never said the virus is hoax, I said the hype is the hoax.

Hype can't be a hoax, hype is just people talking about something.  Unless you think people aren't really talking about it, I think you mean some data or information is wrong?  I assume you think the 2-3% mortality rate is wrong, and it should be 1% or under?  

You do realize that 1% is still ten times worse than the flu?  And as of March 3rd, WHO reported a global death rate of 3.4%

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-rate-is-3point4percent-globally-higher-than-previously-thought.html

https://www.sciencealert.com/covid-19-s-death-rate-is-higher-than-thought-but-it-should-drop

Bottom line, we are talking about people.  These people have family and friends.  Even one life is too much.  But over 5,000 deaths is significant, and 34 times the flu rate, is also significant.  And if this "hype" can save one life, then it is worth it.

Edited March 15, 20206 yr by GlideBy

The level of sheer ignorance dotted throughout this thread is frankly an embarrassment to this otherwise generally intetillgent community.

When all of the ventilators in your local hospitals are in use and one of your loved ones suddenly requires one - whether due to this virus or not - will you still be thinking 'this only affects the old', 'I've had flu, so I'm good', '99% of people will be ok', 'this is just a media hoax'...

That is just one of the numerous consequences this pandemic could have on YOU and those around you. Overloaded healthcare services affect everyone. Overloaded supermarkets as a result of stockpiling and lockdown affects everyone.

Thanks captain obvious. We're all washing our hands, coughing into our elbows, and stopped licking doorknobs. Beyond that, offensive initials not allowed do you want people to do? Scream at the sky?

Settle down.

I have no idea why anybody would want to pay to an Alpha version release! To pay for something that is probably incomplete & in a testing mode.

Really?

9 minutes ago, Wobbie said:

I have no idea why anybody would want to pay to an Alpha version release! To pay for something that is probably incomplete & in a testing mode.

Really?

I do not understand anyone who buy something without knowing the full facts, scammers like people like them.

13 hours ago, GlideBy said:

You do realize that 1% is still ten times worse than the flu?  And as of March 3rd, WHO reported a global death rate of 3.4%

As of today Italy with the 8th best health care in the world and in total lockdown the CFR stands at 7.3% and they are now triaging patients.

1 hour ago, Wobbie said:

I have no idea why anybody would want to pay to an Alpha version release! To pay for something that is probably incomplete & in a testing mode.

Really?

I would pay for this alpha without thinking. Like shut up and take my money! 

Rather donate to AVSIM.. your money will be of more use there.