48 minutes ago, FPStewy said:

As of today Italy with the 8th best health care in the world and in total lockdown the CFR stands at 7.3% and they are now triaging patients.

That doesn't mean much however. We can't know the real death rate because we don't know the number of total infected. The death percentage is higher because it is based only on those infected and hospitalized, and it is increased by the fact that most of those are the ones suffering the most from Covid19, elderly people. The average age of the deceased is 80 years old.

Also we are not at triage yet. Right now almost all the ICU beds are filled in Lombardy and patients are transferred to hospitals in other regions too.

 

You can check up to date data here:
https://www.iss.it/documents/20126/0/Infografica_15marzo+ENG.pdf/791a803e-78bd-0c3e-eecb-0ff1826fa457?t=1584298825219

 

Edited March 16, 20206 yr by Pastaiolo

Here's a wake-up call for the "it's just a flu / hoax" crowd. Obituaries on a northern italy local newspaper.

Translation:

Hello, dear friends. Just to give you an idea of what the situation is like: Eco di Bergamo, sunday 9th febrary. One page, and a bit. Now let's look at today's edition, friday 13th march. One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten. "Just a flu". Thank you.

 

Edited March 16, 20206 yr by nikita

But it is "just the flu". A flu to which no human has a natural immunity, and for which there is presently no vaccine. Hence the elevated rates of transmission and death. The fact that the average age of those killed is in the neighborhood of 80 years old should tell you something about the disease's virulence. 

Should we gather the names of the 50,000 Americans killed by the regular flu last year, make a short video on YouTube, and insist that everyone panic and hoard toilet paper?

I dont understand you people who insist we aren't sufficiently panicked. What else would you have us do that we aren't already doing?

4 minutes ago, Noodle said:

I dont understand you people who insist we aren't sufficiently panicked. What else would you have us do that we aren't already doing?

People are still going out to bars and restaurants in a lot of places. That’s not a good idea, and is going to get people killed. Social distancing is the only way to keep this manageable, so it doesn’t overwhelm health systems. Does that help you understand?

James

1 minute ago, honanhal said:

Does that help you understand?

James

No, it doesn't frankly.

How would me panicking change the behavior of young healthy people exercising their individual right to make poor decisions?

 

47 minutes ago, Noodle said:

No, it doesn't frankly.

How would me panicking change the behavior of young healthy people exercising their individual right to make poor decisions?

 

There’s a lot of reporting about older people who are making those same poor decisions, but leaving that aside...

I’m not asking anyone to panic. Panic is not helpful. However, taking this seriously as a grave, once-in-a-generation threat is.

That includes telling anyone you know and have influence over not to make any of those poor decisions. It’s not enough for each of us individually to do the right thing, unfortunately. A critical mass of everyone has to do the right thing, and that only happens if they hear from people they listen to, whether that’s public figures, politicians, experts, friends, family, social media influencers — whoever! — that this is not to be taken lightly.

There’s been too many people in too many places taking this lightly. If that’s not you — my mistake.

James

1 hour ago, honanhal said:

It’s not enough for each of us individually to do the right thing, unfortunately. 

There’s been too many people in too many places taking this lightly. If that’s not you — my mistake.

James

Well, I think getting EVERYONE in a free society to do a particular thing is impossible. The onus is on each of us, individually, to do what we think is best for ourselves.

Again, everyone I know is doing what we've been asked to do. I don't see the point in stoking fears and making dubious claims about mortality based on incomplete data just to scare and coerce people into action.

Taking preventative action and acting out of an abundance of caution is fine, but the constant hysteria is causing the less rational among us to panic. Panic is detrimental to the end goal here.

This isn't about me, by the way. I'm writing from my living room couch, not my local bar. I'm just annoyed when people act shocked when the predictable happens. We know the number of reported infections is going to increase exponentially both as a function of the spread of the virus and as we ramp up testing. We know this. This is expected. Nothing is actually "changing". Yet the news outlets and certain alarmists will inevitably start screaming at the sky and incite further panic.

I am not at all worried about the stupid new flu. I am terribly worried about the desperate reactions of large numbers of people cut off from basic services as a result of ridiculous policies.

People are dangerous.

Edited March 16, 20206 yr by Noodle

DELETED [Responded to an obviously out of date posting]

Edited March 16, 20206 yr by Donstim

42 minutes ago, Donstim said:

And you're endangering not only yourself, but others for doing so.  I hope you are still paying attention to the CDC.

In fairness to Jim, his post dates from three weeks ago, which is an eternity in this timeframe.  IIRC, he was persuaded by some of the data in this thread even at that time.  To be honest, I wasn't as focused on it the same way back then, or responding the way I am now. I was taking it seriously but more as an abstraction, something to be watched carefully but not necessarily acted on yet.  I ate in a restaurant and went to a play as late as March 7.

The next day, things had changed sufficiently that I decided to start shutting things down.

As of today, everybody I work with has done the same.

Not enough people are compliant yet, which is frightening.  But many more of them are... which is something.

1 hour ago, Noodle said:

We know the number of reported infections is going to increase exponentially both as a function of the spread of the virus and as we ramp up testing. We know this. This is expected. Nothing is actually "changing". Yet the news outlets and certain alarmists will inevitably start screaming at the sky and incite further panic.

I am not at all worried about the stupid new flu. I am terribly worried about the desperate reactions of large numbers of people cut off from basic services as a result of ridiculous policies.

The balance has tipped over.  While the initial panic was in many ways exaggerated, at this point, knowing what we know about the prospect of exponential growth, extreme social distancing is absolutely in order.

What's changed is our understanding of the capacity of our healthcare system and the massive, immediate risk that we're going to overwhelm it.

The thing to worry about is our failure to flatten the curve.

 

3 hours ago, honanhal said:

A critical mass of everyone has to do the right thing, and that only happens if they hear from people they listen to, whether that’s public figures, politicians, experts, friends, family, social media influencers — whoever! — that this is not to be taken lightly.

Agree - but we're getting beyond the point where we can wait for people to come to their senses.

Here in Maryland, Gov. Hogan has just ordered all the bars, restaurants and movie theaters closed.  Which is what every local authority should be doing everywhere.

We can't enforce good judgment.  But we can take away the places where bad judgment can be exercised.

That's where we are now.

8 minutes ago, Alan_A said:

In fairness to Jim, his post dates from three weeks ago, which is an eternity in this timeframe.  IIRC, he was persuaded by some of the data in this thread even at that time.  To be honest, I wasn't as focused on it the same way back then, or responding the way I am now. I was taking it seriously but more as an abstraction, something to be watched carefully but not necessarily acted on yet.  I ate in a restaurant and went to a play as late as March 7.

The next day, things had changed sufficiently that I decided to start shutting things down.

As of today, everybody I work with has done the same.

Not enough people are compliant yet, which is frightening.  But many more of them are... which is something.

Yes, thanks.  I had just started reading this thread and didn't look to see when the discussion had started. I decided to delete my post, but unfortunately you were quicker to comment on it than I was to delete it!

Thank you also for the informative posts you made in this thread.

Edited March 16, 20206 yr by Donstim

1 hour ago, Noodle said:

Well, I think getting EVERYONE in a free society to do a particular thing is impossible. The onus is on each of us, individually, to do what we think is best for ourselves.

Again, everyone I know is doing what we've been asked to do. I don't see the point in stoking fears and making dubious claims about mortality based on incomplete data just to scare and coerce people into action.

Taking preventative action and acting out of an abundance of caution is fine, but the constant hysteria is causing the less rational among us to panic. Panic is detrimental to the end goal here.

This isn't about me, by the way. I'm writing from my living room couch, not my local bar. I'm just annoyed when people act shocked when the predictable happens. We know the number of reported infections is going to increase exponentially both as a function of the spread of the virus and as we ramp up testing. We know this. This is expected. Nothing is actually "changing". Yet the news outlets and certain alarmists will inevitably start screaming at the sky and incite further panic.

I am not at all worried about the stupid new flu. I am terribly worried about the desperate reactions of large numbers of people cut off from basic services as a result of ridiculous policies.

People are dangerous.

In some ways in the UK, the Government shouldn't be just advising that people don't go to bars, theatre's etc they should also warn about people watching too much 24 hours news channels, it's in the channels best interest to whip up a frenzy so people feel compelled to watch even more news which causes people to panic buy etc.

@Donstim - You're welcome - and understood.  If you'd like, I can take mine down, too, but it might be a good thing to let people see everybody (and of course I include myself) struggling to come to grips with this thing.  I always feel like I'm a couple of steps behind - that's how fast it's developing.

Hope you're staying as safe as you can - hope we all are.

@eaim - It's a really tough balance to strike.  People need to be informed so they can take steps to protect themselves.  Shutting down information makes things worse, as we've seen in some of the international responses, especially in the early stages.  But you're right, that carries with it the risk of panic and other forms of bad behavior.  Which is why, in the short term, we're probably all going to have to have some kind of enforcement - quotas on buying goods, possibly curfews.  It's not the way any of us wants to live.  But on the other hand, we do want to live... so...