1 hour ago, dave2013 said:

The influenza virus kills thousands of people every year, even in first world countries. 

The rate of mortality for influenza in the U.S.: 0.1 percent.

The rate of mortality for coronavirus worldwide: 2.0 percent.

Clearly not an apples-to-apples comparison, but that's still a bit of a difference.

Again: coronavirus is not just another flu.

1 hour ago, Ron Attwood said:

Next Friday. So I heard on the internet

EDIT: I think it was a forum somewhere.

Well, we've heard from an MD on this thread.  I've got a masters in health policy, I studied epidemiology as part of my coursework, and I worked in NYC hospitals and with Burroughs Wellcome during the early years of the HIV epidemic. 

So there are those of us here that, to mention a certain American TV insurance, know a thing or two because we've seen a thing or two.

Oh, and since we're talking quality of information - about your sig: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/weather-vs-climate

 

12 hours ago, SierraHotel said:

Well, I don't know where some of you are getting information about CoVID-19? Because it is "nothing" like the flu

It's the flu and I'm taking it lightly.  Read my CDC post.

45 minutes ago, Jim Young said:

It's the flu and I'm taking it lightly.  Read my CDC post.

Your post is well researched and well presented.  There's only one point where we might differ - the US flu mortality figures are from a much larger affected population.  Mortality rates within the much smaller coronavirus-affected population also need to be taken into account.  Mortality in Hubei province is currently 2 percent, which would put it on par with other pandemic flus like the 1918 Spanish Flu  (the rate is lower elsewhere).  Adjusting for population size, mortality in the coronavirus population is much higher.

I agree that coronavirus doesn't represent the threat of imminent death for most people, and that a lot of the current panic is exaggerated.  But the fact that death isn't imminent is actually a major part of the problem.  Coronavirus is something of a worst case is a slow-moving infection that spreads readily, and that mostly doesn't kill its hosts.  A reservoir of that size can easily kill off vulnerable populations (the very old and the very young) while maintaining itself in a lot of survivors and carriers - with the risk that it mutates into something else down the line.  The bigger risk isn't what happens next week - it's what happens a couple of years down the line.

Here are some stats that I found. I actually read the same stats within a respected news source, but unfortunately I do not remember. These stats prove that this is not all doom and gloom and reinforce basically what I said earlier:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
 

To summarize; age, underlying health problems and gender will determine mortality. As someone mentioned, mortality worldwide is ~ 2%. Canada, where I live is 0%. Same person mentioned worldwide ~ 2% indicated .01% US. Italy is the oddball. 
 

This isn’t the apocalypse that everyone is making it out to be unless you are a male, in the 50-90 year old range with a pre-existing health issue.

Health sciences are far more advanced than they were 20 years ago.

Social media is directly/indirectly more responsible for deaths than this.

25 minutes ago, Groovy_Kincaid said:

Same person mentioned worldwide ~ 2% indicated .01% US

Good points - the only correction is that the US .01% mortality figure is for seasonal flu, not coronavirus.  So if coronavirus did in fact establish itself at a 2% mortality rate, that would be a radically higher mortality figure than for flu.  Unclear, of course, whether that's going to happen - but we'll find out, because if there ever was a point where it could have been contained, we're past that now.

Males 50-90 is a pretty big population (with a lot of flightsimmers in it, too...)

3 hours ago, Jim Young said:

It's the flu and I'm taking it lightly.  Read my CDC post.

We may be young enough and healthy enough to take it lightly, but for the sake of the older, less strong population, we probably shouldn’t. The regret of having infected one’s parents with it may not be so light.

19 minutes ago, KevinAu said:

We may be young enough and healthy enough to take it lightly, but for the sake of the older, less strong population, we probably shouldn’t. The regret of having infected one’s parents with it may not be so light.

There's also the possibility that mortality doesn't stay confined to the traditional targets.  One of the features of the 1918 Spanish Flu was extremely high mortality in people aged 20-40, who had been healthy and didn't present any obvious risk.  When strains mutate, anything's possible.  More here: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html

And...one of the major lessons of epidemiology is that everyone's connected, even if we don't want to think we are.

 

Edited February 26, 20206 yr by Alan_A

The 1918 "Spanish" Flu pandemic killed as many as 50 million people worldwide, and an estimated 675,000 in the US.  Approximately 28% of the US population contracted it.

The Spanish Flu virus R sub zero (the basic reproduction number, roughly speaking the number of infections expected to result from a single infected person in an unprotected population not taking control measures) is estimated at somewhere between 2.0 and 3.0, and its mortality rate was ~2.8%.

COVID-19, aka SARS-CoV-2, has an estimated R sub zero of 2.2 (within a statistical range of 1.6 to 6.0), and a mortality rate of ~2.3%.  https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.4.2000058

Unlike the 1918 flu, COVID-19 can be spread to others prior to an infected vector becoming symptomatic, so implementation of any effective quarantine scheme will require 2+ week immobilizations of large numbers of asymptomatic people in the vicinity of any outbreak.  Seems to me that there is a non-trivial possibility for some draconian, albeit temporary, disruption to economies and activities.

The epidemiology, notwithstanding the fake news sensationalizing, posturing and spin, says this is threat is nothing to...ummmm...sneeze at.

 

My last thoughts/comments on this horrific event in our lives is that our membership has thought out and researched some information about this event and are not posting just a lot of made up information or making silly assumptions. It's a serious event and we all hope it will not last much longer.

Best regards,

Jim

https://www.tomshardware.com/uk/news/coronavirus-update-ram-resistor-prices-effects

The latest news it has spread from Italy in to other parts of Europe at this rate the Tech shows may be cancelled. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51628990

I follow F1 at the moment they are testing in Spain but European races could be under threat if this is not controlled as country's will start shutting the borders.   

Edited February 26, 20206 yr by G-RFRY

2 hours ago, G-RFRY said:

The latest news it has spread from Italy in to other parts of Europe at this rate the Tech shows may be cancelled. 

Right, because other european countries didn't have cases before, right? WRONG.

There is a massive difference between now reporting some infected italians travelling to other countries and saying that it is spreading because of italians travelling to other countries.
I'll state again what have been said before. You find coronavirus where you look for it. Italy have done tons of lab tests on people, which lead to more people with coronavirus being found. The difference is quite big (over 5000 tests done by now compared to France doing around 500 for example).

The fact that the coronavirus have symtoms similar to the influenza for most people also means that, without lab tests, most won't even know they have/had it and this is exactly why in the other european countries there are less cases reported so far.

It should be clear by now, also considering the coronavirus seems to grow for over 10 days in each individual before showing symtoms, that it has been around Europe for quite some time and blocking flights to/from China didn't help at all as long as people were allowed to come from Cina via other mid stops.
 

Edited February 26, 20206 yr by Pastaiolo

2 hours ago, G-RFRY said:

I follow F1 at the moment they are testing in Spain but European races could be under threat if this is not controlled as country's will start shutting the borders.   

I used to follow F1, got tired of all the rule changes every year.

The world is reacting in the “better safe than sorry” manner. This happens quite often.

For example, excluding the MAX issues,  when there is a loss of life due to a plane incident, people keep flying.

An autonomous car gets into an accident and kills someone, the entire program gets shut down.

25, years ago, where I live, an animal rights group claimed to put strychnine in turkeys forcing retailers to issue a mass recall at Christmas and offering free turkeys in replacement, thereby nullifying the animal rights groups’ manifesto. 
 

Point is, we as the human race will overreact to things. We all fear the things we cannot control.

Fear spreads faster than the disease. I completely understand the world’s reaction, but spreading fear isn’t going to make things better nor is hunkering down in a bunker. Common sense like using hand sanitizer or washing your hands properly and avoid touching your face is the best preventative measures one can take. Be aware but don’t be paranoid. As they say, paranoia will destroy ya. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/51641149

I think this is a very serious issue because of modern life style people masses aglomeration.

I'm in South America exposed to dengue and sica which are more lethal, however a mass propagation of CORONAV will cause trouble in my opinion.

Im very concern of MFS release date postponed as I dont think this title will allow workers to work from home.