Do we Cancel Everything? You still Travelling??

[Alan_A 1,650]

18 minutes ago, hjsmuc said:

Mortality rate is relative to cases. So it's 3 deaths out of 100 infected. For 1 million deaths you would need 33 million infected people. We currently have 57 thousand active cases. 

Since new people keep arriving in the thread - which is a good thing - I'll link again to this post about how to work with the numbers.

EDIT: Thanks, @goates - we cross-posted.  Just put up the link to that post.  The numbers are hard to work with.  Lots of people - including some in positions of power - keep getting them wrong.

Edited March 12, 2020 by Alan_A

[Bob Scott 7,721]

Back to the topic, a new research report from NIAID just concluded that the SARS-COV-2 virus remains viable when aerosolized in air (think coughs and sneezes) for up to 3 hours.  That tells me that getting into an airplane, bus, train, or subway, as well as an enclosed space like an elevator or waiting room is a really bad idea, particularly if you're at elevated risk for serious complications in the event you should acquire COVID-19 (as many of us older guys are).  So no, I'm not travelling on any public conveyance, or attending any sort of public gathering UFN.

The ECDC (European CDC) published a fact sheet a few days ago ( https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/novel-coronavirus-china/questions-answers ) that says this virus is proving to be 20-30 times more lethal than the common flu, and is at least as easily transmitted, possibly more.  If you do some historical research on the 1918 Spanish Flu (which killed as many as 50 million people worldwide over the course of ~18 months), these metrics for COVID-19 are easily up in that range.

 

 

 

[hjsmuc 393]

In the post you have linked they use case fatality rate which is of course more correct than mortality rate. But it means the same: Percentage of infected people who die of the disease. Thus, this rate is not applied to the total population unless everyone would be infected. That's all I wanted to say with regard to talking about 7.5B people. Please let me know if anything is wrong about that. 

The news about the virus surviving 3 hours in the air is not good. Hope it does not get confirmed. 

[Bob Scott 7,721]

25 minutes ago, hjsmuc said:

Mortality rate is relative to cases. So it's 3 deaths out of 100 infected. For 1 million deaths you would need 33 million infected people. We currently have 57 thousand active cases. 

As of about 12 hours ago, it was over 127,500 known infections globally.

How many did we have a week ago?  Two weeks ago?  Exponential growth can get us to 33 million infections and beyond amazingly fast. 

[Alan_A 1,650]

3 minutes ago, hjsmuc said:

In the post you have linked they use case fatality rate which is of course more correct than mortality rate.

Absolutely.  And apologies - I was really reacting more to the post you quoted.  Should have quoted that myself.  Speed kills.

I'm not at all sure the 3.4 percent figure is valid - it looks more like a high-end one related to a particular population.  Fauci is still using 0.5 percent as far as I know.  But that's still really bad.

The big problem continues to be that we can't gauge the spread because hardly anyone has been tested.

[Alan_A 1,650]

And back to the original question about whether we should cancel travel plans and other routines - I really, really recommend this article.  The point being - it's not about the risk to you.  It's about the risk you pose to others.

We're in this together, guys.

[hjsmuc 393]

2 minutes ago, w6kd said:

As of about 12 hours ago, it was over 127,500 known infections globally.

How many did we have a week ago?  Two weeks ago?  Exponential growth can get us to 33 million infections and beyond amazingly fast. 

 

1 minute ago, Alan_A said:

Absolutely.  And apologies - I was really reacting more to the post you quoted.  Should have quoted that myself.  Speed kills.

I'm not at all sure the 3.4 percent figure is valid - it looks more like a high-end one related to a particular population.  Fauci is still using 0.5 percent as far as I know.  But that's still really bad.

The big problem continues to be that we can't gauge the spread because hardly anyone has been tested.

Exactly. The exponential growth is the biggest concern. However, the logarithmic charts show a flattening and some positive thinking can't harm I think. Let's stay as safe as we can.  

[Alan_A 1,650]

1 minute ago, hjsmuc said:

However, the logarithmic charts show a flattening and some positive thinking can't harm I think. Let's stay as safe as we can.  

Right.  Hope for the best, plan for the worst is the way to do it.

[G-RFRY 1,712]

35 minutes ago, hjsmuc said:

Mortality rate is relative to cases. So it's 3 deaths out of 100 infected. For 1 million deaths you would need 33 million infected people. We currently have 57 thousand active cases. 

Don't tell Merkel she has stated she expects 70% of The German population to go down with the virus, 70% of over 60million.

[hjsmuc 393]

11 minutes ago, G-RFRY said:

Don't tell Merkel she has stated she expects 70% of The German population to go down with the virus, 70% of over 60million.

I seriously think that this was a very dangerous remark. Apart from the fact that this statement was based on one doctor's guess only, at the same time another virologist estimated the number at 40.000. I don't want to be told unfounded optimism but also not unfounded pessimism. But then, I never agreed with that lady anyway. 

[Murmur 3,941]

It is indeed a possibility that this cannot be stopped anymore without halting completely the worldwide economy for many weeks, which is unfeasible. Maybe the countries will be forced to adopt less invasive mitigation measures (compulsory face masks, increased interpersonal distance, etc) with the aim not to stop the spread, but to slow it down enough to ease down the pressure on health systems, and accept the inevitable deaths (like we accept more than a million of deaths on the roads every year). This until either most people have been infected, or a vaccine is found.

Of course I could be wrong and it can still be stopped, hopefully so, but I'm not very optimistic.

[Nedo68 533]

15 minutes ago, Murmur said:

It is indeed a possibility that this cannot be stopped anymore without halting completely the worldwide economy for many weeks, which is unfeasible.

Today Italy recorded its most deaths from the coronavirus in a single day,
and Italy is only about 3 weeks ahead of us (EU) regarding the infection,
unless we contain it quickly we know what's coming up soon, we must act now really not much time left.

[Matthew Kane 1,343]

One of my staff just booked a cruise today for her and her friends. It is an Auckland to Fiji one week Cruise and they paid $450 and just a $50 deposit, cruise is in August so if they decide not to go they just lose $50, by then if everything is fine that is a $450 cruise, not bad. They are young so of course get out there and have fun. Probably the cruise will make up for the low price with over inflated alcohol sales. Goes to show they are getting desperate to fill those boats

[KevinAu 441]

1 hour ago, Murmur said:

(compulsory face masks, increased interpersonal distance, etc)

Mandating everyone to wear face masks is the most sensible thing to do to slow the spread without stopping the economy. Unfortunately, we never prepared for this so there are not even enough masks for the health professionals. So I expect hospitals here in the US to be slammed within the next couple of weeks and a near stoppage in commerce.

[TuFun 436]

9 hours ago, fluffyflops said:

I'll introduce you to some of my friends at Norwegian, they are about to loose their jobs... Or how about the plethora of staff at my airline on unpaid leave?? Or the pension cuts the company is proposing along with canning numerous routes? 

Not such a rosey picture is it... 

 

 

I guess you didn't get it what Mcgard78 said.  I used a noun (effect) instead of a verb (affect).  The dogs knew that. 😼