7 minutes ago, psolk said:

Your golden egg analogy is a drop in the bucket for MS.  Don't overstate it's relevance.  Especially when you look at their cloud infrastructure group earnings...  It "could" be dropped as easily as any other MS product the day the cost operating model switches... 

https://www.zdnet.com/article/all-eyes-on-microsofts-azure-cloud-numbers-in-q1-fy23/

I don't see them mentioning MSFS in their earning reports and XBOX content and services were one of their only decreasing revenue units.

https://news.microsoft.com/2022/10/25/microsoft-cloud-strength-drives-first-quarter-results-5/

The Photogrammetry are blacksharkai and MS does not appear to have an exclusive on that technology. It is available within the Unreal engine today.  

Sometimes we need to separate facts from emotion...

 

 

This.  and ill add MSFS isnt even in the top 20 XBox games by monthly active users. MSFS is currently doing very well in its sector, but its still a very small market segment in the Gaming world.

Just enjoy it, overstating its relevance is getting a bit old in here.

MSFS will not abandon a money spinner like MSFS.

What they MIGHT do however is bring out a Version 2.0 in a few years and make us all pay again.

33 minutes ago, Glenn Fitzpatrick said:

MSFS will not abandon a money spinner like MSFS.

What they MIGHT do however is bring out a Version 2.0 in a few years and make us all pay again.

Which I will happily do. 

50 minutes ago, Glenn Fitzpatrick said:

MSFS will not abandon a money spinner like MSFS.

 

but what about when it's not a moneyspinner?

that's been the question since the start for me - we can't simply continue to use the platform offline if MS abandon it, a point that's been made several times so I know I'm repeating myself

it does concern me personally, but I do hope/think that the most likely outcome is it will revert to either a subscription model at some point, or there will be a V2 - would be interesting to see what features would drive a V2, as its being constantly updated now and is a far better platform than was initially released, so arguably we're already on a V2 in some ways

3 hours ago, psolk said:

Your golden egg analogy is a drop in the bucket for MS.  Don't overstate it's relevance.  Especially when you look at their cloud infrastructure group earnings...  It "could" be dropped as easily as any other MS product the day the cost operating model switches... 

https://www.zdnet.com/article/all-eyes-on-microsofts-azure-cloud-numbers-in-q1-fy23/

I don't see them mentioning MSFS in their earning reports and XBOX content and services were one of their only decreasing revenue units.

https://news.microsoft.com/2022/10/25/microsoft-cloud-strength-drives-first-quarter-results-5/

The Photogrammetry are blacksharkai and MS does not appear to have an exclusive on that technology. It is available within the Unreal engine today.  

Sometimes we need to separate facts from emotion...

But no other simulator has put it all together, the photogrammetry, the satellite data, the clouds, the real time weather, the waves, the grass, etc, into a 3D world.

MSFS is the leader right now, for the simulation of the entire world in 3D.  I don't know of another piece of software that does what MSFS does.

As for your links to the earnings and revenues of Microsoft, MSFS is just one of many games on XBox Gamepass.  And Microsoft has many other product lines where they get the bulk of their revenue from, rather than XBox. Why would they mention MSFS in their earnings report?

BTW, I don't own any shares in Microsoft. So whatever money Microsoft makes on MSFS, or the MSFS engine, I don't benefit from it.  So this is just my 2 cents.

 

19 minutes ago, EGLD said:

but what about when it's not a moneyspinner?

that's been the question since the start for me - we can't simply continue to use the platform offline if MS abandon it, a point that's been made several times so I know I'm repeating myself

it does concern me personally, but I do hope/think that the most likely outcome is it will revert to either a subscription model at some point, or there will be a V2 - would be interesting to see what features would drive a V2, as its being constantly updated now and is a far better platform than was initially released, so arguably we're already on a V2 in some ways

 

What puts me at ease is that Jorg takes MSFS very seriously and understands that this is not just a "game" but a hobby for many people. He's aware what happened last time when Microsoft closed the Aces Game Studio and he says that it can't happen again. So I'm sure he and the team will come up with a way to keep MSFS going for the foreseeable future. 

 

2 minutes ago, abrams_tank said:

But no other simulator has put it all together, the photogrammetry, the satellite data, the clouds, the real time weather, the waves, the grass, etc, into a 3D world.

MSFS is the leader right now, for the simulation of the entire world in 3D.  I don't know of another piece of software that does what MSFS does.

As for your links to the earnings and revenues of Microsoft, MSFS is just one of many games on XBox Gamepass.  And Microsoft has many other product lines where they get the bulk of their revenue from, rather than XBox. Why would they mention MSFS in their earnings report?

BTW, I don't own any shares in Microsoft. So whatever money Microsoft makes on MSFS, or the MSFS engine, I don't benefit from it.  So this is just my 2 cents.

 

That doesn't mean it is the money spinner you make it out to be and doesn't leave it immune to being disbanded no different than any other offering within Microsoft... Just because we have an emotional attachment means nothing from a business perspective.

If it were truly the cash cow you seem to imply then I would have expected it to have a call out, like Office, LinkedIn, Azure on the whole, the fact it doesn't shows it is just another line on a spreadsheet and with XBox Content and Services one of the only negative performers in their portfolio I know where they would be making to look the first cuts.  Every business is the same, cuts come from the bottom performing business units.  

At the time ACES was disbanded I think MS was still the clear market leader in flight simulation... It was irrelevant to the business decision.

I'm just saying when you pull the emotion out MSFS is in no way immune to anything MS decides to do.  Not saying I don't support it immensely but I am a data guy when it comes to debate, not emotional... The data doesn't align with the picture you are painting with emotion added into the equation 🙂  

I just saw a $400M business unit and almost 5,000 jobs cut because it was one of our lower performing in terms of recurring revenue and profits...  That was with 400M in revenue but profits at -1%   Business is business and it is brutal when 700 members of your team are here one day and gone the next...

Some reminders 

- there is no public financial data about the profitability of MSFS : sim sales,  impact on the Game Pass and console sales, MS store sales, cost of the on-line distribution etc.

All we know are some hype from MS (millions play the game !) and the apparent satisfaction of 3rd party dev. echoing excellent sales and leaving the other platforms

- MS left FSX in 2009 in a general reassessment of their activities namely leaving the game sector. On the other hand, it invests now massively in the game industry by external growth.

 

 

Edited January 11, 20233 yr by Dominique_K

28 minutes ago, psolk said:

That doesn't mean it is the money spinner you make it out to be and doesn't leave it immune to being disbanded no different than any other offering within Microsoft... Just because we have an emotional attachment means nothing from a business perspective.

If it were truly the cash cow you seem to imply then I would have expected it to have a call out, like Office, LinkedIn, Azure on the whole, the fact it doesn't shows it is just another line on a spreadsheet and with XBox Content and Services one of the only negative performers in their portfolio I know where they would be making to look the first cuts.  Every business is the same, cuts come from the bottom performing business units.  

At the time ACES was disbanded I think MS was still the clear market leader in flight simulation... It was irrelevant to the business decision.

I'm just saying when you pull the emotion out MSFS is in no way immune to anything MS decides to do.  Not saying I don't support it immensely but I am a data guy when it comes to debate, not emotional... The data doesn't align with the picture you are painting with emotion added into the equation 🙂  

I just saw a $400M business unit and almost 5,000 jobs cut because it was one of our lower performing in terms of recurring revenue and profits...  That was with 400M in revenue but profits at -1%   Business is business and it is brutal when 700 members of your team are here one day and gone the next...

Not sure why you think I am being emotional. Seems like you're more emotional than I am.

I am saying MSFS is new technology.  At the same time, the MSFS engine can be a prototype for what's to come. Of course Microsoft isn't going to mention a prototype in their earning report. And a golden egg doesn't mean it's a cash cow yet.  Microsoft has to do further development and research on this prototype, before it can become a cash cow.

And even if the MSFS engine does become a cash cow, Microsoft is such a big company with so many lines of revenue and so many products, that in the best case scenario, if the MSFS engine were a wild success, it still won't be mentioned in their earning's report. Like I said, MSFS makes up a very small percentage of XBox Gamepass, and XBox itself is just one division of many divisions in Microsoft.  Look at the earnings report that you posted in your link, there are so many other lines of business for Microsoft, of which the XBox division is but a small piece of:

Quote

Microsoft Cloud revenue	24%	7%	31%
Office Commercial products and cloud services	7%	6%	13%
Office 365 Commercial	11%	6%	17%
Office Consumer products and cloud services	7%	4%	11%
LinkedIn	17%	4%	21%
Dynamics products and cloud services	15%	7%	22%
Dynamics 365	24%	8%	32%
Server products and cloud services	22%	6%	28%
Azure and other cloud services	35%	7%	42%
Windows OEM	(15)%	0%	(15)%
Windows Commercial products and cloud services	8%	7%	15%
Xbox content and services	(3)%	4%	1%
Search and news advertising excluding traffic acquisition costs	16%	5%	21%
Devices	2%	6%	8%

Even if the MSFS engine were a huge success, it still may not make a huge dent in Microsoft's overall earnings and revenue.

So I really don't know why you expect MSFS to be mentioned in the Microsoft earning's report when Microsoft has so many other lines of products, and so many other divisions.

Edited January 11, 20233 yr by abrams_tank

6 minutes ago, abrams_tank said:

Not sure why you think I am being emotional. Seems like you're more emotional than I am.

I am saying MSFS is new technology.  At the same time, the MSFS engine can be a prototype for what's to come. Of course Microsoft isn't going to mention a prototype in their earning report. And a golden egg doesn't mean it's a cash cow yet.  Microsoft has to do further development and research on this prototype, before it can become a cash cow.

And even if the MSFS engine does become a cash cow, Microsoft is such a big company with so many lines of revenue and so many products, that in the best case scenario, if the MSFS engine were a wild success, it still won't be mentioned in their earning's report. Like I said, MSFS makes up a very small percentage of XBox Gamepass, and XBox itself is just one division of many divisions in Microsoft.  Look at the earnings report that you posted in your link, there are so many other lines of business for Microsoft, of which the XBox division is but a small piece of:

Even if the MSFS engine were a huge success, it still may not make a huge dent in Microsoft's overall earnings and revenue.

So I really don't know why you expect MSFS to be mentioned in the Microsoft earning's report when Microsoft has so many other lines of products, and so many other divisions.

That is my whole point...  There is no data to back up the assertion that:

Quote

Like I said before, Microsoft is sitting on a golden egg with the MSFS engine. If Microsoft can get everything to look good at the ground level, the application of the MSFS engine will go way beyond flight simulation.  Right now, things look good if you're 200 feet above the ground, but at ground level, the details and photogrammetry does not look as good.  Once Microsoft figures out how to get everything looking good at the ground level, the sky is the limit for the MSFS engine. If everything looks good at ground level, there will be so many video games that could use the MSFS engine.  And I'm not just talking about train simulators, truck simulators, or boat simulators  - any video game that requires a replica of a city in present day, could utilize the MSFS engine.  And then there are non video game uses of the MSFS engine - there will be a lot of companies that would be interested in using the MSFS engine for their own application use.

That is purely emotional as most of the technology lies with BlackSharkAI and is now available in UnReal. 

So this comment is also an emotional assertion not data driven...  Not calling "you" emotional just stating your point is one of emotion not data 🙂  

Quote

For this reason, not only do I think MSFS is here to stay for years to come, but I think Microsoft, especially Satya Nadella and Jorge, have further plans with the MSFS engine, as I outlined above.

 

Edited January 11, 20233 yr by psolk

1 minute ago, psolk said:

That is my whole point...  There is no data to back up the assertion that:

That is purely emotional as most of the technology lies with BlackSharkAI and is now available in UnReal. 

So this comment is also an emotional assertion not data driven...  Not calling "you" emotional just stating your point is one of emotion not data 🙂  

 

So I was very careful with my words. I said the MSFS engine is a golden egg and I stand by that. But Microsoft can have many golden eggs, not just one 🤣.  I'm sure Frozen was a nice golden egg and ended up being a nice cash cow for Disney, but still, Frozen and Frozen 2, make up a very small part of Disney's overall revenue too 🤣.

Nowhere did I say that Microsoft is highly dependent on MSFS's success or failure. Even if the MSFS engine were hugely successful, and everything I said became true, the overall profit/revenue that would come from a hugely successful MSFS engine would still be a small blip in Microsoft's total profit and revenue.

Having said that, the MSFS engine is likely a prototype of what's to come. I think this time around, Satya Nadella and Jorge have a plan for the MSFS engine, and it probably goes beyond MSFS, as I mentioned my earlier post.

While you are right that Microsoft can also cut MSFS like they did to FSX, the leadership is also very different this time.  Satya Nadella is a very different CEO than Steve Ballmer. FSX was cut when Steve Ballmer was CEO.  MSFS came to fruition under Satya Nadella.  Yes, it's possible that Microsoft can cut MSFS. But IMO, that would be pretty d*mb of Satya Nadella to cut MSFS when Microsoft is currently leading the market with the best 3D simulator of the entire world.

11 minutes ago, abrams_tank said:

So I was very careful with my words. I said the MSFS engine is a golden egg and I stand by that. But Microsoft can have many golden eggs, not just one 🤣.  I'm sure Frozen was a nice golden egg and ended up being a nice cash cow for Disney, but still, Frozen and Frozen 2, make up a very small part of Disney's overall revenue too 🤣.

Nowhere did I say that Microsoft is highly dependent on MSFS's success or failure. Even if the MSFS engine were hugely successful, and everything I said became true, the overall profit/revenue that would come from a hugely successful MSFS engine would still be a small blip in Microsoft's total profit and revenue.

Having said that, the MSFS engine is likely a prototype of what's to come. I think this time around, Satya Nadella and Jorge have a plan for the MSFS engine, and it probably goes beyond MSFS, as I mentioned my earlier post.

While you are right that Microsoft can also cut MSFS like they did to FSX, the leadership is also very different this time.  Satya Nadella is a very different CEO than Steve Ballmer. FSX was cut when Steve Ballmer was CEO.  MSFS came to fruition under Satya Nadella.  Yes, it's possible that Microsoft can cut MSFS. But IMO, that would be pretty d*mb of Satya Nadella to cut MSFS when Microsoft is currently leading the market with the best 3D simulator of the entire world.

SO my only issue is the two counter points...

You call it a golden egg but say the overall profit/revenue isn't a blip.  That is regardless of it being the best 3D simulator of the world (which is actually blackshark technology not exclusive to MS and could very well show up in Lockheed's future offerings now) so from a business perspective killing the program subsequently would be merely a blip from a corporate perspective as well.  So where does the "stupid" part come in once profitability dries up if it is merely a small blip on the radar?  Furthermore I never said you said MS's success lies in MSFS, it's a blip, a rounding error in their overall budget... 

Furthermore, you are basing a lot of this on Satya, is this his pet project?  With the C level turnover nowadays placing this on the CEO's shoulders when in reality he probably cares more about the business unit than the individual titles is making out like it's Satya's call somehow...  If the board decision is to cut the program Satya reports to the chair and to the board not the other way around... 

Edited January 11, 20233 yr by psolk

16 minutes ago, psolk said:

SO my only issue is the two counter points...

You call it a golden egg but say the overall profit/revenue isn't a blip.  That is regardless of it being the best 3D simulator of the world (which is actually blackshark technology not exclusive to MS and could very well show up in Lockheed's future offerings now) so from a business perspective killing the program subsequently would be merely a blip from a corporate perspective as well.  So where does the "stupid" part come in once profitability dries up if it is merely a small blip on the radar?  Furthermore I never said you said MS's success lies in MSFS, it's a blip, a rounding error in their overall budget... 

Furthermore, you are basing a lot of this on Satya, is this his pet project?  With the C level turnover nowadays placing this on the CEO's shoulders when in reality he probably cares more about the business unit than the individual titles is making out like it's Satya's call somehow...  If the board decision is to cut the program Satya reports to the chair and to the board not the other way around... 

I said the overall profit/revenue of the MSFS engine, even if it is a wild success, is still a blip in Microsoft's overall profit/revenue.  It can be a golden egg and end up being a cash cow, but Microsoft is such a large company, it can still be negligible in Microsoft's overall profit/revenue. I just explained to you how the Frozen franchise was a golden egg and ended up being a nice cash cow for Disney, but the Frozen franchise is still probably negligible in Disney's overall profit/revenue because Disney is such a big company with many lines of business.

And no, where did I say this is Satya's pet project? Satya probably has hundreds of projects to look over, of which the MSFS engine is just one project.  Most likely, there are other exec(s) above Jorg, who are overseeing MSFS directly.  I don't think Satya is overseeing MSFS directly and I never said that (geez, you seem to make so many assumptions with my comments, I think you need to read more carefully).  I said Satya and Jorg have plans for MSFS, but that does not mean there isn't another exec(s) above Jorg who are overseeing MSFS directly, perhaps Satya hears an update once or twice a year about the MSFS project.

Edited January 11, 20233 yr by abrams_tank

While it's quite true that any product in MSFS's lineup is subject to being relegated to maintenance mode or outright abandonment (irrespective of profitability), the unique thing with MSFS is the *combination* of technology stacks behind it that MS can use for applications far beyond the niche one of flight simulation (Bing earth/scenery data of the entire globe, blackshark & AI refinement of this scenery, Meteoblue, cloud services and the Azure infrastructure, etc etc).

 

All what I've heard from MS/Asobo about their commitment to MSFS, especially that most recent interview with Helisimmer where they make it quite clear they are in for the long haul and not just 10 years (Seb even jokes about how it'll keep evolving after his retirement) says to me that this is a sim platform that will last. So to me, its chances of being nixxed by MS are about the same as other successful product lines of MS's (meaning it can always happen, but low probability IMO).

1 hour ago, lwt1971 said:

So to me, its chances of being nixxed by MS are about the same as other successful product lines of MS's (meaning it can always happen, but low probability IMO).

Given the resources required on MS' side to deliver MSFS, and the good, but not AAA-game number of users, I think the probability that MSFS could get canned is higher than most people want to acknowledge.

IMHO, what is going to keep the platform alive is the continued development of key elements that make up this next generation flight sim. By bringing them to a mature stage, they can be re-used on far more profitable ventures.
That, and a healthy amount of commission from MSFS Marketplace. If that's the case, MSFS is good for at least another couple of years.
 

Edited January 11, 20233 yr by F737MAX