X-Plane shining in last navigraph-result

[mSparks 2,189]

25 minutes ago, Mike_CFII_MEL said:

the fact that 3RD party programmers are leaving XP12 for MS2020.

I don't agree with this at all. It is complicated tho.

A huge chunk of development type conversation has shifted from the org to discord and laminars slack group, these are waaaaaaay more active than anything that was on the org during XP11, but also much less public.

There's been a fairly high tunover as a lot of those who started XP dev when 2020 was announced have now finished school/colllege and got real jobs and girlfriends/boyfriends (levelup lost pretty much everyone to that afaict), they didnt go to 2020, they just aren't really around anymore.

XP is in kinda a wierd place, no ones going to buy XP11 stuff, XP12 doesnt quite have a big enough userbase yearning to buy new stuff yet to kick off/launch new big XP12 projects (should get there next year tho).

MS is in an even tighter place tbh now that MSFS2020 has been (as good as) cancelled.

And lastly, the bar is much much higher now, payware worse than default need not apply, but default and freeware today is generally to a higher standard than the best of last gens payware.

[Pe11e 817]

3 hours ago, mSparks said:

XP12 doesnt quite have a big enough userbase yearning to buy new stuff yet to kick off/launch new big XP12 projects (should get there next year tho).

*cough*

.ORG forum numbers




O n e m i l l i o n e x c l a m a t i o n m a r k

In all seriousness, I bet at least 50% of registered users doesn't use XP11/12 anymore, but that leaves 500 000 in calculation, and let's say 30% of these 500 000 now use XP12 exclusively. Any info how many copies Austin sold? I know it's a strange question to ask, but it would be really interesting to know comparing to number I posted above. 

 

Edited December 25, 2023 by Pe11e

[mSparks 2,189]

51 minutes ago, Pe11e said:

*cough*

.ORG forum numbers




O n e m i l l i o n e x c l a m a t i o n m a r k

In all seriousness, I bet at least 50% of registered users doesn't use XP11/12 anymore, but that leaves 500 000 in calculation, and let's say 30% of these 500 000 now use XP12 exclusively. Any info how many copies Austin sold? I know it's a strange question to ask, but it would be really interesting to know comparing to number I posted above. 

 

it was smth like 800,000 3 years ago. the vast majority are either not real people (bot accounts), the same person multiple times, or just registered an account to download & try something with the demo. Note their most ever online was way back in 2020.

The numbers Goran posted are far more realistic, about 5000 a year a good result (thats still $500,000 to divide up for a $100 CL650..), at 5% of the market that would be 100,000 as a high end estimate.

As another data point, latest sparky744 release has had roughly 20,000 downloads since the start of August, + 5000 downloads of the XP11 backport.

The total size of XP has grown nicely from last year (my estimate for last year was about 200k), as new people started XP12, and only 5/35 XP11 users switched to XP12, carried on shrinking a fair bit for MS, which is now less than twice the number of XPlane unique users.

but we are talking 10s of thousands of people, not millions.

Edited December 25, 2023 by mSparks

[coastaldriver 950]

Look the reality that MS is much larger and has more market share of flight gaming simulation is not really surprising. The niche that XP12 created will stay and can but grow (at the expense of P3D and MSFS) I get a simulation that is one of the best visually and technically I have used since simming back in original ATP and FS days. Whether scenery developers are prepared to do stuff is up to them - the power of Laminar and harnessing the Gateway - shows in the sim all the time - high quality airports good as payware from other sims more times than not. I find little quirky scenery done here and there for those places not captured or a bit too shall we say generic. Its fine. Apart from the big items such as MisterX, SimHeaven and Global Forest the only scenery I have paid for is CDB's beautiful little out of the way places like Nepal or parts of the Pacific. 

As for developers and aircaft - Not sure what they can do or how? Why well I have the range of Boeings 737, 747, 727 (soon) 707 ( and there is the 787, 767 and 757), same with Airbus they are all covered and in very high quality, Tollis etc. Embraer - sure X-hangars got em and so have I,. MD11 or MD80 (think Rotate) Then I can add some real payware quality freeware gems. The light or GA twins and singles are more than covered, lets see C170, C172, C206, The De havilland Beaver, Islander, Twin Bonanza, Aerostars. So not really sure what people could want and given the developers have effectively covered the real world market - maybe some obscure or unknown European, Russian or Chinese aircraft, maybe the oldies that is the big pistons but I do not feel neglected or put off by that on the contrary - my simulation program is more than replete with any aircraft I really like. 

So I just watch it get better and better - sure some bits have been a WIP but Laminar have the numbers to make it work. Could not be bothered going to trying anything else again, 

[Ident 205]

Theres only so much simming a person can do in their free time but with that said, I find that no one sim offers it all. Users can have their favorites, but if one has the ability to find ways to use all the various platforms out there (MSFS, XP, AeroflyFS, DCS, P3D) then its only to their own advantage as they each offer their own unique features that are not found in the other sims. I love XP12 for what I use it for.

 

[Aglos77 210]

On 12/23/2023 at 1:04 PM, scotchegg said:

No, creo que realmente has entendido el extremo equivocado del palo.

Hay una gran cantidad de palabras no permitidas en el mercado, pero también hay muchos recién llegados que producen cosas realmente buenas. SWS, GotFriends, Fenix, SamScene, JBL, FSReborn, diablos, incluso Heatblur de DCS, ¡tanta gente agregando cosas de buena calidad al ecosistema MSFS, y todos son recién llegados!

Francamente, los 'grandes desarrolladores conocidos' están siendo gradualmente asumidos por los nuevos chicos de la ciudad, y es hora de que los viejos lo reconozcan.

Editar: la detección de malas palabras en este sitio es realmente exagerada...

I've bought from most of the ones you mention there, not bad products but none of them come close to x-plane's top products. I am one of those who have recently returned to x-plane and although I have a lot of paid addons in mfs only return to MFS for a2a and leonardo

Edited December 26, 2023 by Aglos77

[mSparks 2,189]

13 hours ago, coastaldriver said:

maybe some obscure or unknown European, Russian or Chinese aircraft,

aside from needing a LOT more high quality .mil airframes and scenarios.

This, imho, is really where the "x-plane approach"/planemaker carved itself out a solid future.

Not relying on flight test data but instead getting rock solid estimates of how it would fly based solely on the design & documentation (and a ton of validation and tweaking against actual flight test data) opens the door to successfully building stuff like

https://www.vskylabs.com/p/vskylabs-test-pilot-sr-71-tb-project/

13 hours ago, coastaldriver said:

As for developers and aircaft - Not sure what they can do or how?

We are a long way yet from the CL650/PMDG/zibo/sparky standard being the standard. We are even quite a way off

https://forums.x-plane.org/index.php?/forums/topic/176949-kmgm-montgomery-regional-airport-payware-quality-freeware/

being a base standard.

I think we see much more of that next year and those following.

[coastaldriver 950]

MSparks - all correct. My view is more of does simulation reflect the real world of aircraft and helicopters? That is the industry of flight itself as we live it? Participant numbers, aircraft, crew engineers airport folk etc The round down is young age group interest or participation - those numbers are low! Guess what they are for real world aviation numbers as well! A more youthful generation grew up with the mundanity of airline travel or electronic communication and entertainment! So maybe military stuff is shall we say under represented - but I would suggest it takes a certain dedication to create a simulation model of a modern or not so modern military aircraft and its systems. So here is a stop point as well - I as a user and hence customer - have no interest in military aircraft! Curiously I have managed to do without Navigraph as well! Just saw the same declines and shifts in participation and interest in the real world so see no magic growth trajectory except pure gaming (fantasy).

I will support a scenery developer who fixes the dreadful roads (like how about dirt roads where there are dirt roads)  AI road traffic algorithms - and getting the world driving on the correct side of the road! Other correct scenery detail will come - some places it is already brilliant - other places can be odd. 

Edited December 26, 2023 by coastaldriver

[mjrhealth 933]

Thing is, as a kid, all you want to do is fly a plane and say hey mum look at me, most like to score points, thats why first person shooters do so well, people love to be on top of the score board, everyone wants to be that sniper with the longest kill shot. Than as kids grow up, if they taker any interest, they may go deeper, because its fun when you finally plan your first flight, do your first landing, than the exilleration fades, But if one like to explore learn new things,m than it goes deeper, plane need to feel real, even if one doesnt know what "real" feels like, weather needs to be something variable, system depth goes deeper, thats is what keeps some of us going, but not that many want that, and that is why xplane will never get as big as the competition, but really, who cares, I certainly dont,

[skipph 82]

On 12/22/2023 at 10:09 PM, Mike_CFII_MEL said:

Hi,

I didn't get the take that this survey was good for X-Plane, not at all. Seven minutes into the video MSFS at over 70% with XP getting 13%, that's not good! Third party programmers will go where the crowd gathers. 

 

+1

[mSparks 2,189]

15 hours ago, skipph said:

+1

thats a very narrow question tho, that could probably be reworded to "which flight sim did you read about the most in the last 12 months" and get the same answer.

for the bigger picture you need to see what people were doing when they were not firing up X flight simulator because Y developer announced yet another fix for their broken payware. that tells a very different story about how things have changed in the last 12 months.

Dec 2022

Dec 2023

And that is all before XP12.1.0 drops

https://www.x-plane.com/2023/10/coming-in-x-plane-12-0-8-and-beyond-roadmap-update/

Which I (am fairly sure I) said from day 1 will be the first version "most" start using as their primary sim.

I note all the commentary on how many millions of flight sim "pilots" there are has also now vanished like a trump in the wind, I'd love to know how those who believed in that figure reconcile it with the results of this survey, even at 13% that 10 million figure would still be 1.3 million XP12 full price sales in the last 12 months, there is no $1 option for x-plane....

plus "flight simmers that have XP12" is now a smidgen under 40%.

Anyone offering any insight into whether they think ms2024 manages a better delta in the next survey? Because I think thats gonna be crunch time.

Edited December 28, 2023 by mSparks

[Mike_CFII_MEL 861]

9 hours ago, mSparks said:

for the bigger picture you need to see what people were doing when they were not firing up X flight simulator because Y developer announced yet another fix for their broken payware. that tells a very different story about how things have changed in the last 12 months.

Impossible to get the bigger picture using Navigraph survey! Many MS2020 Xbox users never heard of Navigraph let along have taken their survey. This survey is more or less that of hard core  / Intermediate simmers, yet XP12 still doesn't do well. That's why the 3rd party programmers are leaving or cutting down the amount of hours spent on XP products.

The big thing going for XP12 is what's under the hood aircraft dynamics, physics and what-not. But how does that translate for the base platform and 3rd party developers going forward? Granted I've only had three type rated airline pilots in my flight deck and all three prefer MS2020. Two pilots (Boeing) had the opportunity to fly XP12 and MS2020 in my flight deck, both prefer 2020. The third pilot (Airbus) only flew my setup with XP12 but has flown MS2020 elsewhere. He said to me when we were done, you have to get MS2020. He's in for a treat next time he's in town, 2020 is up and running along side XP12.  Everyone else (non pilots) in my flight deck ALL prefer MS2020.

[brinx 330]

8 hours ago, mSparks said:

I'd love to know how those who believed in that figure reconcile it with the results of this survey, even at 13% that 10 million figure would still be 1.3 million XP12 full price sales in the last 12 months

That is because you are thinking this is a survey that has a representative sample of the full MSFS userbase(12 million according to microsoft).

It is a survey of navigraph users and/or the more dedicated flight simmers. If I'm not mistaken, only about 2% of respondents are on xbox. Do you really think this would give the full picture? If navigraph wants to make the survey more inclusive of the entire flight simulator market as a whole, they should probably get Microsoft involved as a partner to have a wider reach including xbox. I see xplane and prepar3d listed as partners.

You have to take the survey for what it is. It gives us some ideas of how things are trending in the flight simulation market. However, it is in no way the full picture. It is not valid to say 13% of 10 million unless that 10 million was represented in the survey. If they were, it is likely the gap would be larger.

[mSparks 2,189]

1 hour ago, Mike_CFII_MEL said:

Impossible to get the bigger picture using Navigraph survey! Many MS2020 Xbox users never heard of Navigraph let along have taken their survey.

there is no special xbox exclusive forum for msfs, they use the same as PC:

https://forums.flightsimulator.com/t/navigraph-flightsim-community-2023-survey-is-out/617200

The truth is, xbox series X/S that can actually use it have not sold well (a few million units), only 3 million in 2023 by some estimates 

https://www.ign.com/articles/ps5-has-outsold-xbox-series-x-and-s-3-to-1-in-2023-new-data-reveals

VR is the future. Wouldnt be surprised if aces of thunder on psvr2 tops the 2024 survey.

msfs for the other "100s of millions" of xboxes gets something like a 1/10 rating for play anywhere. And even for the new series X|S is somewhat mixed opinions 

https://forums.flightsimulator.com/t/does-msfs-run-well-for-xbox-users-top-model-now-here-in-late-2023/614924

very similar to xplane mobile. - lots and lots of users tried it, many even bought some content, but it is not something they take seriously enough to visit any related websites, let alone complete a survey.

You can see this just from the fraction of users that write stuff, entirely consitent with the results of the survey.

This is absolutely why imho MS are going for round 2 with 2020 + 4 + missions. They realised very very late in the day they need something to make xbox users come back rather than uninstalling it after the first session (drunkedly flying over their house) .

55 minutes ago, brinx said:

only about 2% of respondents are on xbox, Do you really think this would give the full picture?

Do you have any evidence that contradicts it? because I don't. 

The msfs2020 "shock cancelled" and msfs2024 announced in between dec 2022 and dec 2023 is also entirely consistent with the total xbox flop seen in the 2022 results, and the disastrous xbox console sales in the last 12 months.

Edited December 28, 2023 by mSparks

[Bjoern 1,206]

On 12/23/2023 at 11:54 PM, mjrhealth said:

More to it than that, Xplane users have become a very fussy demanding bunch, just take a look at the heated comments that developers get because there is a rivet missing off the fuselage. Carenado made nice planes, and me not being a pilot quiet enjoyed them, but look at the flack they copped. Im surprised we have as many developers as we do, honestly with some comments I see, I dont know why more havnt left. The oher sim has a greater sway of users and Im sure many of them dont care, looks nice, it flies, im happy.

Well, it's all a spiral. Devs increase prices to cover expenses, users expect more accuracy and complexity because of the increased pricing. Better tools facilitating workflows and proper documentation would help a lot to minimize frustration from trial & error. As an example, the workflow for wiper trails is straight from a KGB torture manual, it's easier to find Atlantis than some official guidance on creating PBR textures, previewing textures for repaints requires more improvisation than on Apollo 13 and there's a scientific dispute about the oldest writings on Earth - Egyptian hieroglyphs or X-Plane's SDK plugin code examples. And this is just the tip of the iceberg.

Not sure what flak you mean regarding Carenado. If it was about not fixing reported bugs and then quietly and completely abandoning their products then yes, every shell was rightfully deserved.