Do we Cancel Everything? You still Travelling??

[G-RFRY 1,731]

3 hours ago, birdguy said:

For some reason Italy has twice the average (8%) of coronavirus fatalities than the rest of the world (4%).  They are certainly an outlier in t hits case.

Noel

That's because China has told us the US military are responsible for the virus so we should believe them. and they have cured most people now but it`s a secret how they did it and will remain so, when you lock the sick and infected in there homes to die you get results, should your country do the same.     

Edited March 20, 2020 by G-RFRY

[francy25 130]

26 minutes ago, G-RFRY said:

That's because China has told us the US military are responsible for the virus so we should believe them. and they have cured most people now but it`s a secret how they did it and will remain so, when you lock the sick and infected in there homes to die you get results, should your country do the same.     

I don't understand what you mean.

[Pastaiolo 1,688]

2 hours ago, domkle said:

I am glad that a strong immune system protects you. Only thing, that makes you even more dangerous to the rest of the population when you go wandering about.

Italy : there are many reasons why the figures are higher. Our Italian friends may correct me.

 

Actually, the strong immune system is what is causing the most damage to the lungs. It's the reaction to the coronavirus that is damaging the lungs the most 😞

As for the masks issue, the main problem is that in Europe there aren't many producers of those masks and ironically, the main exporter of masks are actually businesses in Wuhan. Since this is very contagious, none of our countries had enough stocks of masks to handle this. Just Italy monthly needs 60 million masks. We don't have enough, and the others we have are blocked and requisitioned in other countries too. That's the sad truth about european support. The only external help we got so far have been from, funnily enough, China. We received various planes loaded with supplies and respirators, and a team of doctors and plasma as well.

As for why the numbers are higher, it's a mix of events. We have one of the oldest population in the world and this doesn't help at all. We were also pretty unlucky too in the way that the first (or one of the first cases) didn't call its doctor first but visited the hospital right away, two times even. That contributed to spreading it at first. In the eaerly weeks he also partecipated to various dinners, went to the gym, joined various public events like running competitions and so on. In short, he become a super spreader.
The reaction was on point, the "just the flu" politicians were a minority and they were not at the government but in marginal positions so they did not affect the reaction at all. It's just too contagious.

Another reason for the high official number depends on what the official reason for the death was. This is a very easy comparison to do. We take Germany as the prime example of this, their death rates are too low for the number of infected they have and you can do a comparison with countries with similar amounts of infected to see that their death rates are much higher.

2 hours ago, Alan_A said:

The point of the draconian measures is to keep that from happening - to slow down the rate at which the disease spreads so that the hospitals and healthcare workers can cope with the caseload - and not, for example, have to refuse to put older patients on ventilators, because there aren't enough ventilators to go around and the choice is made in favor of younger people who are in overall better health and stand a better chance of surviving.  That's Italy right now.

Small correction here, we are not yet at the point in which patients are dying because they are not getting to an ICU bed. We might get there in the following weeks but we are not there yet.

We have almost 2500 people in ICU, but our ICU total numbers are over 6000 by now and increasing the more respirators are produced and delivered too. The black line in the following graph shows the current maximum capacity of ICU beds as of yesterday, the red line is the prediction wave of ICU beds needed and the dotted line is the actual ICU need updated to yesterday.

 

[CYXR 257]

5 hours ago, birdguy said:

.  The sacrifices of the few for the good of the many should be a consideration.

 

So speaks the contrarian who`s not willing to make a few sacrifices. 

 

[Dominique_K 10,152]

50 minutes ago, Pastaiolo said:

 
As for the masks issue, the main problem is that in Europe there aren't many producers of those masks and ironically, the main exporter of masks are actually businesses in Wuhan. Since this is very contagious, none of our countries had enough stocks of masks to handle this 

Re masks

There is  such a thing as national strategic reserves. This is not about oil only. In 2002/03, the SRAS epidemy was parallel to the Iraqi WMD crisis (please guys don't jump into that one. Pleeaase !). The feeling of many "informed" people was that we were not ready to counter such a threat and that led to a reassessment of procedures and needs within many NATO countries, to protect the armed forces and the general population against all NRBC threats (B is for biological). This is what I alluded to when I spoke of the dreadful perspectives some of us had then of a HIV-type of virus (thought then as incurable) having the aerial contagiosity of a flu virus.  It is now quite clear that the necessary mask reserves were not in place or were abandoned in some European countries (including France in 2011).

 

Edited March 20, 2020 by domkle

[Dominique_K 10,152]

22 minutes ago, CYXR said:

So speaks the contrarian who`s not willing to make a few sacrifices. 

 

I am 100% with you. The positive side of this, is that Noel expresses aloud what other people lurking here silently think. So it gives to more reasonable people, the opportunity to debunk some dangerous nonsenses floating around.

[G-RFRY 1,731]

2 hours ago, francy25 said:

I don't understand what you mean.

I would not trust what is coming out of china at the moment they are now claiming it was brought into the country, some of china's media reporters have been arrested and some western media deported, and are shutting down social media trying to stop reports getting out.  

[G-RFRY 1,731]

Sadly this can bring out the best in people that help.

But I'm afraid it will also bring out the worst in some people.

 https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavirus/coronavirus-paramedic-stares-at-shelves-cleared-by-locusts-after-shift-saving-lives/ar-BB11qWWI?li=BBoPWjQ

Some supermarkets are opening for an hour for the older generation to shop, but the younger generation are having none of it first come first served is there motto, and fight`s with staff in some stores that try to enforce it. 

Edited March 20, 2020 by G-RFRY

[martin-w 3,259]

8 hours ago, birdguy said:

For some reason Italy has twice the average (8%) of coronavirus fatalities than the rest of the world (4%).  They are certainly an outlier in t hits case.

Noel

 

In terms of Italy, they say the higher death rate is because they have the oldest population in Europe. Not to mention that the young mingle with the old more. 

Draconian measures, self isolation, closing borders seems to be flattening the curve, working. Worked great in South Korea... but there is no "exit strategy" that's the problem. So the virus will have a resurgence. Its already starting in South Korea. 

Edited March 20, 2020 by martin-w

[G-RFRY 1,731]

Check out Switzerland per head per capita one of the highest.

[Reader 2,034]

Is it? Or is it in fact, as reported, Koreans returning home and bringing it with them but being detected on arrival?

On the vexing subject of selfish and thoughtless panic buying, a picture is worth a thousand words.

 

Edited March 20, 2020 by Reader

[CYXR 257]

2 hours ago, domkle said:

I am 100% with you. The positive side of this, is that Noel expresses aloud what other people lurking here silently think. So it gives to more reasonable people, the opportunity to debunk some dangerous nonsenses floating around.

Let those who hurry towards death die slowly. The wise know that their hour shall never keep them waiting. 

[KevinAu 441]

3 hours ago, domkle said:

I am 100% with you. The positive side of this, is that Noel expresses aloud what other people lurking here silently think. So it gives to more reasonable people, the opportunity to debunk some dangerous nonsenses floating around.

The thinking expressed by noel is the kind of thinking that will cause this country to end up in a great depression. This coronavirus is not new. We’ve seen this movie before. There is a playbook that works. Unfortunately, Americans are unwilling to follow what Asians learned to do during the sars and  h1n1. Just wear masks. It’s not that hard. Our government needs to mandate everybody to wear masks. Any mask. Masks don’t stop you from catching it. But it stops you from spreading it. And that’s all it takes to stop the spread. But if only a few people wear them, then it does nothing for public health because everybody is still spreading it. Only if everybody wears it will it do any good. But Americans do not understand this and the government is negligent in their duty to explain and mandate this strategy. If we just start with this one simple thing, there would be no need to stop the economy. We can all go to work and everything else we do, just with a mask on. That’s all. What is so hard about that? Is a great depression worth it to not have to see yourself with a mask on?

[n4gix 4,956]

2 minutes ago, KevinAu said:

Just wear masks. It’s not that hard. Our government needs to mandate everybody to wear masks. Any mask. Masks don’t stop you from catching it. But it stops you from spreading it. And that’s all it takes to stop the spread.

While a laudable and factual suggestion, there aren't enough masks for current medical personnel, much less everyone in the US (or any country really). Keep in mind as well that ordinary paper masks are single-use items, so everyone would need to have at least one for every day of the year...

Over 90% of regular masks are made in China, which of course makes resupply problematic at best, impossible at worst. Even surgical masks are in critically short supply at this time, and "painter's masks" are pretty much out of stock as well.

[birdguy 3,956]

The tip of the economic iceberg.  The economic effects of this will last longer than the health effects.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-jobless-claims-record-forecast-layoffs-unemployment-coronavirus-economy-gs-2020-3-1029016767

Yes, I am a contrarian of sorts.  Sometimes I'm right and sometimes I'm wrong.  I might be wrong here, but I don't think so.  I did spark the conversation though.

Noel