56 minutes ago, Ray Proudfoot said:

I’m happy to take my chances in the open air. The risk remains slight.

Perhaps, but since you are near me Ray, it's as well to be aware that there have been a number of cases in and around the Stockport area, including deaths well into double figures (20 people as of today I was told), with UK death toll currently at 422 the last time I checked. And interestingly, the youngest Covid-19 death in the Stockport area, was someone aged 45, so that's 4.7 percent of UK Covid deaths thus far having occurred in our home town, and including someone not in what most people regard as within the significant risk age range.

That's may not be a massive risk, but it is a risk all the same, particularly given that the stats will not include everyone who has contracted it at this point, so you can expect that figure to go up, probably by a lot.

Edited March 25, 20206 yr by Chock

7 hours ago, martin-w said:

You can indeed. I know.  But the new restrictions say you CAN go outside and walk. So obviously they will. 

You lucky. Here in Argentina we've been in a nationwide lockdown since last Friday. It's supossed to end on the 31st, but there are strong rumors that the Government wants to extend the lockdown/quarantine/whatever until April 13rd (after Easter). We can barely go out for food or medicines. No exercising, not even walking the dog...

Some research on CoVID is finally showing up in medical journals and it's a little concerning. This is a nasty virus for a number of reasons, both from a medical perspective and epidemiological control perspective. It can remain on certain types of surfaces up to 96 hours, and survive up to 3 hours in an aerosol state, about 10% of folks are getting the virus from pre-symptomatic cases, the serial interval is only about 4 days; serial interval refers to the time between successive cases in a chain of infectious transmission. If it is shorter than estimates of the median incubation period, it suggests that a substantial proportion of secondary transmission is occurring before illness onset, (infective pre-sympton cases). This seems to account for about 10% of cases with CoVID-19. Incubation period from 1-9 days, case fatality rate in our age group (60-70) is about 8%. Current research suggest the reproduction number R0 ranged from 1.4 to 6.49, with a mean of 3.28, a median of 2.79. Reproduction number R0 is an indication of the transmissibility of CoVID-19, representing the average number of new infections generated by an infectious person in a totally naïve population. For R0>1, the number infected is likely to increase, and for R0<1, transmission is likely to die out.  The serial interval of only 4 days and the mean reproductive number of 3.28 coupled with 10% pre-symtomatic cases passing the virus is what makes the virus so difficult to control. Most countries are still in their exponential growth phase on the epidemic curve, and will need to take aggressive action. Stay safe!

Retired research epidemiologist.  

Cheers

Martin
 

Edited March 25, 20206 yr by MartinRex007

1 hour ago, MartinRex007 said:

Retired research epidemiologist.  

Glad you're here - please keep us updated as you come across new information.

Quote

Most countries are still in their exponential growth phase on the epidemic curve, and will need to take aggressive action. Stay safe!

This is what annoys me about the less than clear guidelines regarding construction workers in the UK. The government are still basically saying that it is OK for construction workers to go to work, but news reports clearly show that these people are not conforming to social distancing rules. In my opinion, most construction work is not vital at this stage, and therefore the government should be instructing all of those workers to stay at home. We all have to play our part in restricting the spread of this virus. Half hearted measures are not good enough.

2 hours ago, MartinRex007 said:

GCurrent research suggest the reproduction number R0 ranged from 1.4 to 6.49, with a mean of 3.28, a median of 2.79. Reproduction number R0 is an indication of the transmissibility of CoVID-19, representing the average number of new infections generated by an infectious person in a totally naïve population.

Cheers

Martin
 

Taking the hypothesis of 5 transmissions in a row. If I am not mistaken, in the best scenario a  rounded 5 persons will be contaminated, in the mean scenario 379 will be contaminated, in the worst scenario 11, 513 persons will be contaminated. This what R0 and a little chat in the local supermarket means. As we face a dangerous virus, lulling ourselves with the best scenario is of course a no go. 

About the number of dead people. We now understand, in France, that the authorities tabulate the hospital deaths, not people dying in medicalized retirement homes or at home. 

9 hours ago, Ray Proudfoot said:

If I walked past your house on my own with no one within several yards of me would that be a problem?

 

In regard to the restrictions imposed, no it wouldn't be a problem, as it complies with the restrictions. But some of the individuals I've seen aren't doing that. I've seen individuals passing each other closely, couples talking to other couples at or somewhat within two metres and walkers brushing past each other. From what I witnessed yesterday, most aren't doing that, but the more people there are on the streets "exercising" the more likely it is that closer proximity encounters will occur. No doubt why other nations have banned being outside exercising. 

 

Quote

The action of walking whilst observing the 6 feet rule is not against the pending law.

 

No it's not Ray, as I said, precisely as I pointed out to Chock. And given that there are now a multitude of people at home rather than working, we can expect to see those individuals out and about, walking jogging, walking the dog, going for a stroll. 

 

Quote

People taking exercise in fresh air whilst keeping their distance from others won’t be banned because it’s unenforceable and not a risk anyway

 

Not true Ray. That's precisely what has been done abroad. As Luis said above, he can barely go out for food in Argentina. Complete lock-down, no going out to exercise. Italy have also threatened to ban exercise outdoors. That was three days ago, not sure if its been implemented or not. 

Edit: Apparently the Lombardy region of Italy have banned all outdoor exercise. 

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/live-blog/coronavirus-updates-over-80-million-americans-under-virtual-lockdown-china-n1165876/ncrd1165881#liveBlogHeader

 

At my local chemist, we are having to queue out into the street, two metres apart, with a  limited number of individuals inside. In Guernsey, my daughter tells me that she is having to do the same at her local supermarket.

Edited March 25, 20206 yr by martin-w

8 hours ago, n4gix said:

Danny (my handyman) dropped of only six rolls for me, the remaining went to some of his other clients who're all in my age cohort.

 

😁 Fair enough. I have crossed you off my "evil panic buyer list".

54 minutes ago, Christopher Low said:

This is what annoys me about the less than clear guidelines regarding construction workers in the UK. The government are still basically saying that it is OK for construction workers to go to work, but news reports clearly show that these people are not conforming to social distancing rules. In my opinion, most construction work is not vital at this stage, and therefore the government should be instructing all of those workers to stay at home. We all have to play our part in restricting the spread of this virus. Half hearted measures are not good enough.

 

Tell you what else is silly Chris... the government telling construction workers to stay 2 metres apart. Shows how out of touch they are with what manual labour, on a building site, is all about. By necessity they will often be within two metres. 

7 hours ago, Chock said:

Perhaps, but since you are near me Ray, it's as well to be aware that there have been a number of cases in and around the Stockport area, including deaths well into double figures (20 people as of today I was told), with UK death toll currently at 422 the last time I checked. And interestingly, the youngest Covid-19 death in the Stockport area, was someone aged 45, so that's 4.7 percent of UK Covid deaths thus far having occurred in our home town, and including someone not in what most people regard as within the significant risk age range.

That's may not be a massive risk, but it is a risk all the same, particularly given that the stats will not include everyone who has contracted it at this point, so you can expect that figure to go up, probably by a lot.

Chock, I'm getting my info from the Telegraph site which reports 42 known cases up to 08:30 today. I know of one former colleague who contracted it and is recovering. He's around early 40s. I haven't heard of any deaths reported in the Stockport area. Here's my source. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/25/coronavirus-uk-map-united-kingdom-cases-covid-19/

35 minutes ago, martin-w said:

In regard to the restrictions imposed, no it wouldn't be a problem, as it complies with the restrictions. But some of the individuals I've seen aren't doing that. I've seen individuals passing each other closely, couples talking to other couples at or somewhat within two metres and walkers brushing past each other. From what I witnessed yesterday, most aren't doing that, but the more people there are on the streets "exercising" the more likely it is that closer proximity encounters will occur. No doubt why other nations have banned being outside exercising.

Not true Ray. That's precisely what has been done abroad. As Luis said above, he can barely go out for food in Argentina. Complete lock-down, no going out to exercise. Italy have also threatened to ban exercise outdoors. That was three days ago, not sure if its been implemented or not. 

Edit: Apparently the Lombardy region of Italy have banned all outdoor exercise.

At my local chemist, we are having to queue out into the street, two metres apart, with a  limited number of individuals inside. In Guernsey, my daughter tells me that she is having to do the same at her local supermarket.

Different nationalaties behave in different ways. I cannot see the UK Govt ever saying you cannot leave you home for any reason. How are people to get food or care for vulnerable relatives? There are always idiots like the ones having a BBQ in Birmingham.

Fortunately around my road I've only seen a few people walking (mainly with dogs) and no groups of kids. I will shop on Friday as usual and expect my supermarket will have different restrictions to last Friday. Providing I can feed myself everything else is fine. Imagine if they took the internet down. Now that would be scary.

1 hour ago, Ray Proudfoot said:

Chock, I'm getting my info from the Telegraph site which reports 42 known cases up to 08:30 today. I know of one former colleague who contracted it and is recovering. He's around early 40s. I haven't heard of any deaths reported in the Stockport area. Here's my source. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/25/coronavirus-uk-map-united-kingdom-cases-covid-19/

My info is from my girlfriend who works as a manager in health and social care for the local authority, so she's getting info directly. I assume that's probably one of the most credible sources.

 

2 hours ago, Ray Proudfoot said:

 

Different nationalaties behave in different ways. I cannot see the UK Govt ever saying you cannot leave you home for any reason. How are people to get food or care for vulnerable relatives? There are always idiots like the ones having a BBQ in Birmingham.

 

Nobody mentioned not leaving your home for any reason. Argentina was mentioned regarding not going out to exercise. You can still buy food. Same for Italy. We were talking about exercise. Obviously we will always need food and travel for medical reasons.

The Bham thing was nuts. Aparently the police lost patience and tipped the barbecue upside down

2 hours ago, Ray Proudfoot said:

 I will shop on Friday as usual and expect my supermarket will have different restrictions to last Friday. 

 

Make sure you get there early Ray. I arrived at Tesco at 7:30 yesterday morning and it wasnt too bad. Some shelves empty of course but most of the stuff I needed was there. Including a few packs of toilet paper. 

25 minutes ago, martin-w said:

Make sure you get there early Ray. I arrived at Tesco at 7:30 yesterday morning and it wasnt too bad. Some shelves empty of course but most of the stuff I needed was there. Including a few packs of toilet paper. 

Us old gits are assigned 9-10 Mon, Wed and Fri so I shall go soon after 9. It wasn't too bad last week as I got all I needed except custard. Quite why people need to stock up on that is bizarre. No more scare stories in the Daily Mail so things must be quietening down. 👍