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Do we Cancel Everything? You still Travelling??

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Because they can't get the reporter to stand in that spot outside the hospital at time of broadcast??

Mark Robinson

Part-time Ferroequinologist

Author of FLIGHT: A near-future short story (ebook available on amazon)

I made the baby cry - A2A Simulations L-049 Constellation

Sky Simulations MD-11 V2.2 Pilot. The best "lite" MD-11 money can buy (well, it's not freeware!)

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Here's some preliminary but hopeful US news, once again from Katelyn Jetelina, "your local epidemiologist" at UT Dallas - indications that cases might be peaking in New York and several other hotspots. 

Doesn't mean the next couple of weeks are going to be easy to deal with.  Remember, deaths are a lagging indicator.  But it's possible that strict social distancing requirements are having some effect.

As always, caution is needed - it's always possible that there are reporting delays that will cause future spikes.  It's happened before.  We need several more days of data before we can say there's a trend here.

In the meantime - STAY HOME!


Alan Ampolsk

"Ah, Paula, they are firing at me!"
-- Saint-Exupery

2 minutes ago, Chock said:

Oh it's nothing sinister, it's probably more to do with social distancing rules currently in force in the UK making it difficult to get the shot they would have liked.

Was thinking it might be something along those lines.

I guess on balance it's better to do that, than to go into the field and have this happen.

Obviously not comparable - was just thinking of the things that can go wrong when you're on location, vs. the things that can go wrong when you're not.

BTW, you clearly know your stuff here so I'm happy to defer, and learn something.

Still proud of having tossed John Johnson out the door, though... 😎

 


Alan Ampolsk

"Ah, Paula, they are firing at me!"
-- Saint-Exupery

Another interesting thing to note in relation to this gathering stuff for news reports etc, if you'd never thought about this before and the kind of thing that goes into news production, is that most newspapers and TV stations already have the stories written and the rough page layouts or story edits created for most celebs, ready for the offchance that they might die. These are regularly updated from time to time. I've had to do a few of those in the past myself, it doesn't half cheer you up if it is for some celeb that you cannot stand lol.

So right now, there's probably a few sub-editors knocking up a layout for a story they might run in an early edition if the PM does happen to succumb to the virus. And please bear in mind that I don't mean I wish anyone ill will who has or may contract the virus, it's an awful thing and I wouldn't wish it on anyone, regardless of whether I like them or not. I just thought people might be interested to know that is one of the things which you probably never thought about which the media does, so they can be the first ones out with the story. And yes, there will be one of those for all the world leaders, major politicians, royals, celebs etc. They have them all on file, ready to go.

 

Edited by Chock

Alan Bradbury

Check out my youtube flight sim videos: Here

I'm not too worried about mainstream media, I've been watching David Icke...

Mark Robinson

Part-time Ferroequinologist

Author of FLIGHT: A near-future short story (ebook available on amazon)

I made the baby cry - A2A Simulations L-049 Constellation

Sky Simulations MD-11 V2.2 Pilot. The best "lite" MD-11 money can buy (well, it's not freeware!)

Just now, HighBypass said:

I'm not too worried about mainstream media, I've been watching David Icke...

Yup, that 'V' television miniseries from the 80s has a lot to answer for, doesn't it? 

Alan Bradbury

Check out my youtube flight sim videos: Here

I still have pleasant stirrings over Jane Badler.. :blush:

Mark Robinson

Part-time Ferroequinologist

Author of FLIGHT: A near-future short story (ebook available on amazon)

I made the baby cry - A2A Simulations L-049 Constellation

Sky Simulations MD-11 V2.2 Pilot. The best "lite" MD-11 money can buy (well, it's not freeware!)

4 minutes ago, HighBypass said:

I still have pleasant stirrings over Jane Badler.. :blush:

Yup, it's ironic that her character was called 'Diana' given that David Icke claims the other well-known Diana was one of the shape shifting lizard people. He really needs to get out more, it's a shame that like the rest of us, he actually can't at the moment. 🤣

Alan Bradbury

Check out my youtube flight sim videos: Here

3 hours ago, Chock said:

They have them all on file, ready to go.

Can confirm - a friend recently retired as a New York Times obituary writer.

The reason to write them in advance isn't so much to be first, as because there's no need to write them at the last minute.  Apart from the lead paragraphs reporting the death, they're essentially mini-biographies.  So the life story can be written ahead of time.  It's more practical to do it that way - why crunch on copy at the last minute when you don't have to? Often, the research involves interviewing the person for his/her own biography - which can feel a bit odd, but if you're a noted person, it goes with the turf.


Alan Ampolsk

"Ah, Paula, they are firing at me!"
-- Saint-Exupery

10 hours ago, KevinAu said:

You really think the united states cannot produce masks for 300,000,000 people if it wanted to?

 

Yes they could. But not fast enough.

And of course your entire argument relates to lack of preparedness, slowness to react... a failure to act as soon as the threat materialised. And you are correct. If both the UK and US, not to mention a number of other nations, had acted rapidly enough, soon enough and amassed sufficient supplies, stockpiled them, just as South Korea did... we would be in a better position.

Hopefully we will respond quicker for the next pandemic.

The authorities of a number of nations are culpable for sure. But it's not surprising to be honest. We havent seen anything like this virus for a very long time. Not really surprising that the response of some governments is in disarray. Medical science itself doesnt fully understand nCov yet. And politicians have a number of factors to juggle, their own political agendas, economic considerations etc. 

Edited by martin-w

10 hours ago, G-RFRY said:

Not when he did a live broadcast today, they would never have let if he was in intensive care, once again fake news the media like sensational sells more.

 

Huh... he's in intensive care receiving oxygen. But not yet on a ventilator. Again... it's not "fake news". Its fact. 

Now here's the thing... oxygen was available on the ward he was in prior to being admitted to ICU so he wasnt sent there just for that. And most patients who end up in ICU find themselves on a ventilator.

Given the above, I wont be surprised if we are told he is on a ventilator very soon. Clearly he has a severe case of nCov. 

73% in ICU are overweight or obese. Probably why he finds himself there.

 

Edited by martin-w

6 hours ago, martin-w said:

 

Yes they could. But not fast enough.

And of course your entire argument relates to lack of preparedness, slowness to react... a failure to act as soon as the threat materialised. And you are correct. If both the UK and US, not to mention a number of other nations, had acted rapidly enough, soon enough and amassed sufficient supplies, stockpiled them, just as South Korea did... we would be in a better position.

Hopefully we will respond quicker for the next pandemic.

This pandemic isn’t over yet. There is still some room to change behavior and have an effect, although the difference is smaller with each passing day. The predicted peak of this in the us given the current type of response is mid may. Which is two and a half months from the end of February when the first community spread was detected. Being the peak, that should be the halfway mark. Which means it will not be until mid august before it can be declared over. Obviously, we cannot sit at home for that long. The country will lift restrictions long before that. As restrictions in the states are lifted before it is completely over, cases will likely increase again. As such, the economy will remain suppressed. A mask requirement therefore needs to be in place. If the us government tomorrow, declared masks a must, instead of a should, and that they will be issued to every person, like in asia, is it really not feasible in the us to make that happen to have an effect before mid august? The problem is not that it is not feasible, the problem is that our government won’t.

Edited by KevinAu

6 hours ago, martin-w said:

Clearly he has a severe case of nCov...

The Illuminati will be getting rid of him..:ph34r:

Mark Robinson

Part-time Ferroequinologist

Author of FLIGHT: A near-future short story (ebook available on amazon)

I made the baby cry - A2A Simulations L-049 Constellation

Sky Simulations MD-11 V2.2 Pilot. The best "lite" MD-11 money can buy (well, it's not freeware!)

1 hour ago, KevinAu said:

 is it really not feasible in the us to make that happen to have an effect before mid august? The problem is not that it is not feasible, the problem is that our government won’t.

 

Well you never said anything about projecting forward many months into the futurei with August as your end point did you. it probably is feasible to obtain a fairly large supply of masks that far into the future. 

But we need masks now to be maximally effective. Not in 4 or 5 months time. So in the context you first implied, rapid, compulsory wearing of masks, supplied by the authorites.... not feasible.

I’m sorry if I didn’t make clear that I was assuming that time would continue continuing into the future.

The context you imagined in your head is nonsensical. We already know that we have no stockpile. And there is no magic for a ready stockpile to suddenly appear. But that has no bearing though on whether or not a mandate and issuance is what should be done. If it should, than they need to decide to do it. And if they decide to do it, they have the legal means, there is the industrial capacity within a useable time and distribution capability to make it feasible (assuming time continues moving forward and that the disease continues as an ongoing issue). Maximum effectivity was several weeks ago. Yes, it’s effectiveness now is less than what would have been the maximum. But unless it becomes part of the response, the economy will feel the weight of whatever marginal higher infection rate (going forward in time, into the future, in coming months, or years) the lack of a mask requirement results in. Mandating masks could improve the economy because it is the closest approximation to a herd immunity that we can achieve without a vaccine. Once people feel safe to go about normal business, there will be a definite and marked improvement in the economy. If we lift restrictions before the real end of the disease without a mask mandate, infections will go up again as activity resumes, hotspots redevelop, and quarantines reimposed. This kind of scenario will keep people feeling unsafe and will keep the economy bearish until the vaccine is available. If we want to prevent another economic depression, we have to all wear masks. It’s the only way to bring most of the economy back before the vaccine. It’s late, but it is not over, so we still need to learn from asia.

Edited by KevinAu

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