1 hour ago, birdguy said:

Many of you are going to disagree with me.  But I refuse to sequester myself and alter my habits when I have a 99% chance of NOT contracting it and a very good chance of surviving it if I do

What you're not mentioning is your chance of infecting other people, which is also part of the equation.

I'm going to leave the numbers discussion aside because we don't seem to be getting anywhere with that.  I'll only suggest that you can't figure your individual survival rate from the overall case fatality rate because those are different things... and saying "it only affects X percent of the population" isn't really helpful when the X percent doubles every three to five days, which is the real story there.

<rant>

On the overall topic of people getting paranoid, I agree that that's a big concern.  But on the other hand, so many people are acting so stupidly and so selfishly that there has to be some mechanism for finding out what people are doing and forcing them to stop.  We've all see the pictures of people jamming the beaches and the tourist attractions and the houses of worship. This weekend a bunch of people are going to flock to religious services, and they'll tell themselves that they're not at risk themselves, or they can live with the risk, or their faith will protect them... and then they're going to go home and two weeks later you're going to have a massive surge of new cases across the country, including in areas that don't have any case count now and don't think any of this applies to them.  And not only will they get gravely ill (and I mean gravely - some of the people that survive are going to have lasting damage)... but they're going to infect store clerks and paramedics and doctors and nurses. All because they were calm and they were OK with it.  And frankly, if some citizen calls the police and reports the mass gathering... and if the police come and put a padlock on the house of worship... that's for the public good.

Look, no one is saying that society should run that way under normal circumstances.  But these aren't normal circumstances.  Another fire department analogy - to complain about public health measures, and about people trying to be vigilant, is like suing the fire department because they broke your windows and cut a hole in the roof and poured water all over your walls and floor.  Of course they did - they caused massive property damage - because they were fighting a fire! Fighting a fire isn't normal life and the same rules of conduct don't apply.  Same with public health.

I don't like the surveillance state any more than most of you guys probably do.  But I think the thing we have to worry about now isn't a nation of sheep, it's a nation of people who are out for themselves.  And what I'd like to see emerge from this on the other side is not a culture of blind obedience to the state but rather a culture in which we recognize that we have some responsibility to each other, not just to our desires and impulses... that we talk not only about independence but interdependence.  That's not a totalitarian fascist or socialist encampment.  That's a society in which people recognize that something exists and something matters beyond the end of their nose.

Note - I'm not directing this rant at anyone in general... except maybe the five additional people I had to order to back off in the lobby today while I was trying to collect a grocery shipment.  What part of this do they not get?

/<rant>

6 hours ago, birdguy said:

Time for a little levity about now...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L5CNHDeF2xA

Noel

Oh my Noel! You just made my day. Someone did a splendid job of research and editing on that video!

3 hours ago, HighBypass said:

We already have people spying on each other over here, but we don't have the testing which the USA has..

What testing? The CDC guidelines will not allow anyone to be tested until they show symptoms, which is frankly about as foolish and stupid as it can be. Meanwhile, the infected individual is allowed to freely roam around, spreading the contagion!

3 hours ago, HighBypass said:

Not just state-by-state paranoia, HiFlyer. A few pages back Fr.Bill posted up a map of his state which showed numbers of cases per county; some counties had zero cases. What's the betting that some folks might start barricading county lines soon, if it hasn't already happened?

Just to be clear, I only posted the counties in NW Indiana, which is about 1/6th of the state's area.

Here is today's map. I see Lake Co. has shot up quite a bit since the other day. Seventeen to four hundred eighteen in just shy of two weeks!

I am so glad I did not settle in Indianapolis (Marion Co.) 2,144 confirmed, 46 dead.

The statewide demographics is interesting. Note that the greater number is the age range of 50-59 years old. 

New Zealand isn’t just flattening the curve. It’s squashing it:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/new-zealand-isnt-just-flattening-the-curve-its-squashing-it/2020/04/07/6cab3a4a-7822-11ea-a311-adb1344719a9_story.html

 

I knew when New Zealand set out with its plan it was not going to be a risk reduction approach, it was going to be Elimination with no plan B. This is what we have been doing, my thoughts on this is as the rest of the world's approach is risk reduction with no possible way of elimination, unless a vaccine is established (which may never happen), therefore what we are doing in New Zealand is effectively cutting ourselves off of the rest of the world with no known outcome. Maybe our approach is better, or maybe we are putting ourselves at greater risk by cutting it off entirely. 

So anyhow, it was nice knowing you, we are now becoming Planet New Zealand, see you later rest of the world 🤣

Many of you are criticizing the US and UK governments for not being prepare for this.  No stockpiles of face masks.

How in the hell are they supposed to predict this?  What are they supposed to stockpile for?  The black plague?  the Spanish Influenza?  Ebola?  How do you stockpile for something heretofore unknown?

Governments are always behind the curve when something like this happens.  Pearl Harbor.  9//11.  Coronavirus.

And how long are we supposed to stockpile for?  100 years?  50 years?  25 years because something, we don't know what, might happen someday.  

I suggest when this thing is over  let's start stocking piling face masks.  Or mosquito repellent. Or cough drops.  Oh hell, lets start stockpiling everything.

You guys will be glad to know that I am getting with the program.  I just put the center leaf in the dining room table to make sure my wife and are at least 6 feet apart while we are eating dinner.

Noel 

Edited April 8, 20206 yr by birdguy

37 minutes ago, birdguy said:

How in the hell are they supposed to predict this?  What are they supposed to stockpile for?  The black plague?  the Spanish Influenza?  Ebola?  How do you stockpile for something heretofore unknown?

How were they supposed to predict this? Epidemiologist Dr. Larry Brilliant in 2006: https://www.ted.com/talks/larry_brilliant_my_wish_help_me_stop_pandemics?language=en

How were they supposed to predict this? The CDC stages a flu pandemic wargame in 2007: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-birdflu-wargame/u-s-health-agency-stages-bird-flu-war-game-idUSN2725968520070427

How were they supposed to predict this? Taubenberger, Morens and Fauci in 2008: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2504708/

How were they supposed to predict this? Bill Gates in 2014: https://www.ted.com/talks/bill_gates_the_next_outbreak_we_re_not_ready?language=en

How were they supposed to predict this? Dr. Sanjay Gupta in 2018: https://www.cnn.com/2017/04/07/health/flu-pandemic-sanjay-gupta/index.html

How were they supposed to predict this? Peter Palese of Mt. Sinai in 2019: https://www.healio.com/infectious-disease/influenza/news/print/infectious-disease-news/{c44d5757-261e-4ceb-8f0a-62053f3edc61}/is-the-world-due-for-an-influenza-pandemic

How were they supposed to predict this? The WHO in 2019: https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/11-03-2019-who-launches-new-global-influenza-strategy

How were they supposed to predict this? The Naval War College stages a pandemic flu wargame, 2019: https://www.military.com/daily-news/2020/04/01/naval-war-college-ran-pandemic-war-game-2019-conclusions-were-eerie.html

The list could go on.  This is just a small selection.

And do you know what they were simulating and warning about? Pandemic flu.  A highly contagious, highly virulent flu that causes massive respiratory distress and failure. The treatment of which requires masks, ventilators, personal protective equipment, a response plan for distributing all that stuff where it's needed, and a program for enforced social distancing and/or quarantine, which is what worked in 1918.

Again - you need to know the pathogen so you can create vaccines and treatments.

You only need to know the likely category of the infection - which we have ample evidence of thanks to 1918, SARS and MERS - to know what form the pandemic is likely to take.

That's what you stockpile for.  That's what you plan for.

Because it's what was predicted.

 

4 hours ago, Matthew Kane said:

New Zealand isn’t just flattening the curve. It’s squashing it:

Read that this morning with great pleasure.

Good job, guys!

I saw a figure quoted above that 70% of people requiring ICU are overweight or obese.  The  interpretation  is of course that being overweight is a risk factor for going into ICU and slim people like me can relax...

This is in fact a totally accurate figure taken from a uk report here.

https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/76a7364b-4b76-ea11-9124-00505601089b

But... before concluding that being overweight is a risk factor we need to consider what % of the U.K. population matching the age and sex profile of people in the ICU dataset are overweight or obese in the first place.

Now because this is a proper report it corrects for this in figure 6.

This shows that whilst there are a lot more morbidly obese people than you would expect, there are only very slightly more obese people than expected and ... there are less overweight people than one would expect.

 ie based on this report alone and assuming no other factors are in play being slightly overweight would appear to slightly reduce your chance of needing ICU...

ok, where are the biscuits...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

With credit to xkcd.com comic here is the virus perspective

 

 

 

18 hours ago, KevinAu said:

I’m sorry if I didn’t make clear that I was assuming that time would continue continuing into the future.

The context you imagined in your head is nonsensical. We already know that we have no stockpile. And there is no magic for a ready stockpile to suddenly appear. But that has no bearing though on whether or not a mandate and issuance is what should be done. If it should, than they need to decide to do it. And if they decide to do it, they have the legal means, there is the industrial capacity within a useable time and distribution capability to make it feasible (assuming time continues moving forward and that the disease continues as an ongoing issue). Maximum effectivity was several weeks ago. Yes, it’s effectiveness now is less than what would have been the maximum. But unless it becomes part of the response, the economy will feel the weight of whatever marginal higher infection rate (going forward in time, into the future, in coming months, or years) the lack of a mask requirement results in. Mandating masks could improve the economy because it is the closest approximation to a herd immunity that we can achieve without a vaccine. Once people feel safe to go about normal business, there will be a definite and marked improvement in the economy. If we lift restrictions before the real end of the disease without a mask mandate, infections will go up again as activity resumes, hotspots redevelop, and quarantines reimposed. This kind of scenario will keep people feeling unsafe and will keep the economy bearish until the vaccine is available. If we want to prevent another economic depression, we have to all wear masks. It’s the only way to bring most of the economy back before the vaccine. It’s late, but it is not over, so we still need to learn from asia.

 

I'm thinking aspects of your reply were a bit rude. I am not sleeping well though, so I'll put it down to me being less tolerant than I normally am.

 

Quote

there is the industrial capacity within a useable time and distribution capability to make it feasible 

 

It depends if you are talking about basic cloth masks with minimal effectiveness or N95 masks.

It sure would be a wonderful thing if the US could manufacture a sufficient supply of N95 masks in the time frame you mention.  If I recall correctly, you mentioned a figure of 300 million masks. Well of course, that wouldn't be just 300 million masks, because masks don't last forever, they are replaced on a regular basis. According to the article below, you would require 7.3 billion masks per year, not for the entire general public, but just all health care workers. Which the US is having a hard time complying with. 

N95 masks are pretty sophisticated of course, with the machines required to manufacture them the size of a bus and taking 4 months to build. That takes you to mid august before the equipment is available to start pumping out N95 masks. 

 

Quote

The industrial machines required to make medical-grade masks, or even to create the textiles for them, are complex and expensive. When Prestige Ameritech, the largest domestic producer of surgical masks and respirators in the US, scaled up its own production after the H1N1 outbreak, it took four months for it to build its new machines, according to NPR, which said they’re “as long as a school bus and cost as much as $1 million.

 

So what about, less effective, basic cloth masks? Well we are seeing efforts being made. US factories that make Hoodies and other garments are being retooled to make basic cloth masks. 

https://www.ft.com/content/92f749dc-6d55-11ea-9bca-bf503995cd6f

https://www.wsj.com/articles/clothing-brands-are-now-producing-medical-gear-but-does-it-work-11585915251

https://www.wired.com/story/defense-production-act-n95-masks-shortage-covid-19/

 

So perhaps you could specify if its N95 you believe could be manufactured in large quantities and supplied to the general public, within your time frame, or minimally effective basic cloth masks? 

 

Quote

The US can’t supply enough medical masks for healthcare workers, let alone the general public

https://qz.com/1831841/the-us-cant-supply-enough-masks-for-hospital-staff-or-anyone-else/

 

 

Edited April 8, 20206 yr by martin-w

11 hours ago, birdguy said:

Admittedly some areas are having a worse time than others.  But as of this afternoon there were 393,493 cases in the United States.  That's 0.13% of the population.  You chances of NOT getting it so far are 99%.  There have been 12,561 deaths due to the virus.  That's 3% of the cases.  So even if you do come down with it you have a 97% chance of surviving it if you live in the United States.

Many of you are going to disagree with me.  But I refuse to sequester myself and alter my habits when I have a 99% chance of NOT contracting it and a very good chance of surviving it if I do.  I could also obsess over getting hit by a drunk or texting driver or getting hit by stray bullet from deranged person trying to shoot up a super market or getting equine encephalitis from a  mosquito bite (I am a mosquito magnet and they will be around soon) .  I choose not to worry about it.  And if you want me to wear a face mask, issue me one.

Noel 

 

Good luck with your 99% chance of surviving it when there is no space in ICU for you to be treated in. Good luck also when the doctors will have to choose to intubate you or a younger person with better chances of survival. I wonder if you will be so calm then as you are now.
i think you are missing exactly that point, and the fact that it doesn't matter what the current number is but what it can get it to. It has an exponential growth rate. We all started with just 1 person infected. The more get infected, the more the growth increases, the more ICUs will be taken and so on.

14 hours ago, Alan_A said:

The only point where I'd disagree - and I largely agree with you, so this is a nuance - is that preparedness didn't really depend on understanding of nCov.  You need to know the specifics of the virus to develop vaccines and therapeutics.  But the broad category nCov fits into - highly infectious, highly contagious airborne flu-like illness - has been the subject of warnings for decades.  And much of the equipment you need - masks, ventilators, a coherent national response plan - is necessary for any respiratory pandemic illness, not just this one. That makes the failure to plan even harder to excuse.

 

Fair point.

 

Quote

But you're right about the political and economic factors that work against planning.  All of which leads me to ask, though - if the same reasoning applies, why do we have fire departments? Most of the time, buildings don't catch fire.  Most of the time, fire crews and fire apparatus aren't fighting fires.  But we pay for them because we need them for the worst case.  Same should apply here... but apparently it doesn't.  Or maybe the bean counters just haven't noticed the fire department yet, and when they do, they'll file a report about how we can do without them and just hire them back, or grab some buckets, if somebody drops a match or falls asleep with a cigarette. 

 

Buildings do actually catch fire on a regular basis in regard to an entire city or region or nation. Most of the time an "individual" building doesn't catch fire. In 2018 a fire was responded to every 24 seconds in the US. 

I guess its the rarity of pandemics that lead politicians into complacency. One every 35 years I believe. For example, when was the last time the US faced a pandemic? I recall it was 1968 but low mortality rate.

So yes, we certainly should be prepared. But governments wont spend money unless they have no choice.

If it where down to me, I would make sure the entire planet was protected from planet killing asteroids. 😀

 

3 hours ago, birdguy said:

Many of you are criticizing the US and UK governments for not being prepare for this.  No stockpiles of face masks.

How in the hell are they supposed to predict this?  What are they supposed to stockpile for?  The black plague?  the Spanish Influenza?  Ebola?  How do you stockpile for something heretofore unknown?

 

 

Sufficiently to handle a pandemic better than we are. And that's precisely what South Korea did. So yes, it can be done and is effective. 

11 hours ago, birdguy said:

 

But as of this afternoon there were 393,493 cases in the United States.  That's 0.13% of the population.  You chances of NOT getting it so far are 99%.  There have been 12,561 deaths due to the virus.  That's 3% of the cases.  So even if you do come down with it you have a 97% chance of surviving it if you live in the United States.

They sky is not falling due to the virus but it may well be falling due to the panic and hysteria.

 

 

 

And if no measures had been taken, no requirement for social distancing, research tells us that ultimately 40 million people dead would be the outcome. With 90% of the worlds population infected.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00966-w

You may have a minimal chance of "getting it" now, but the progression is exponential. That minimal chance of getting it will be far less minimal in a few weeks. 

 

Quote

But I refuse to sequester myself and alter my habits when I have a 99% chance of NOT contracting it and a very good chance of surviving it if I do.

 

A selfish attitude that is diametrically opposed to the strategy that has helped to mitigate the 40 million dead and 90% infected scenario. 

Edited April 8, 20206 yr by martin-w

3 hours ago, martin-w said:

So what about, less effective, basic cloth masks? Well we are seeing efforts being made. US factories that make Hoodies and other garments are being retooled to make basic cloth masks. 

https://www.ft.com/content/92f749dc-6d55-11ea-9bca-bf503995cd6f

https://www.wsj.com/articles/clothing-brands-are-now-producing-medical-gear-but-does-it-work-11585915251

https://www.wired.com/story/defense-production-act-n95-masks-shortage-covid-19/

 

So perhaps you could specify if its N95 you believe could be manufactured in large quantities and supplied to the general public, within your time frame, or minimally effective basic cloth masks? 

 

https://qz.com/1831841/the-us-cant-supply-enough-masks-for-hospital-staff-or-anyone-else/

 

 

Like I said since the very beginning and multiple times already, any mask will suffice for the general public for a mask mandate. It does not have to be the n95. There is no need for the general public to use n95s. Just something to keep one from spitting and breathing out the disease. We have probably a year and a half to wait for a vaccine to finish development. Until that time, the economy will be weighed down severely, unless there is a mask mandate so that quarantine, travel and social distance restrictions can be relaxed. A year and a half is plenty of time for the us, even without utilizing dpa, to manufacture enough basic cloth masks for the population to make a difference in the ultimate spread of this disease and its economic damage.

Edited April 8, 20206 yr by KevinAu

I went food shopping at my local supermarket this morning. I saw one person with a mask. They were quite young. Everyone else just kept their distance from others and the supermarket management had a one-way system down aisles to minimise people being close to one another.