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Do we Cancel Everything? You still Travelling??

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1 hour ago, cmpbellsjc said:

I remember reading an article about Lance Armstrong after he got banned from cycling and he switched to running. Even as good a shape he was in, doping or not, he said that running a marathon was way harder than any of the stages in the Tour de France, even day after day stages

My youngest daughter is a former marathon runner.  Now she is an ultra runner. Several years ago she reached her goal of having run 25 marathons by her 50th birthday.  Two years ago she was running the Leadville 100 but injured her ankle at the 50 mile point.  She failed to qualify last year but she still runs four or five ultras (50 miles) a year.

She stated running with me when she was in high school.  I was running to keep in shape for running the annual three mile run in the Air Force.  I slowed down after I retired at age 60 and started walking.  She just kept running and running an running.

Noel

The tires are worn.  The shocks are shot.  The steering is wobbly.  But the engine still runs fine.

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8 minutes ago, birdguy said:

Nearly 90% of people hospitalized for COVID-19 have underlying conditions...

Noel

You can have underlying conditions without knowing it, everyone should get the chance to survive this,

many of them recover.

A friend e-mailed me tis morning and said his automobile insurance company was reducing his monthly auto insurance premium by 15% for the next two months because we are driving less during the coronavirus outbreak.  I called my auto insurance company and they are reducing my monthly premium 20% for then next two months.  You might want to check with your auto insurance company.

Noel

The tires are worn.  The shocks are shot.  The steering is wobbly.  But the engine still runs fine.

In my case Nedo68 I am confident I have none since I am checked out every 3 months by my primary care physician.  But of course many people don't see a doctor that frequently and might have underlying conditions without knowing it.  Now would be a good time to get checked out.

Noel

The tires are worn.  The shocks are shot.  The steering is wobbly.  But the engine still runs fine.

i would say its to late right now for such an intensive test, to stay on the safe side the only thing you can do now is keep distance to others and wait for a vaccine.

My niece is positively frantic about keeping me (and her mother) in the house, the public perception being that older people are dropping like flies, but I kind of wonder about the actual parameters of the problem, since in my state (for instance) the largest number of infected are people under 50, with older people being in 3rd place.

Is the problem mortality?

If so, are the people in danger not so much divided by age as by the existence of preexisting conditions, regardless of age?

I suspect the information being directed at us is being simplified, and maybe missing some nuance.

We are all connected..... To each other, biologically...... To the Earth, chemically...... To the rest of the Universe atomically.
 
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40 minutes ago, HiFlyer said:

My niece is positively frantic about keeping me (and her mother) in the house, the public perception being that older people are dropping like flies, but I kind of wonder about the actual parameters of the problem, since in my state (for instance) the largest number of infected are people under 50, with older people being in 3rd place.

The data is messier than first reported.

In general, mortality goes way, way up for people over 50.

But that's not an absolute limit.  A lot of younger people - some with underlying conditions but some who were otherwise healthy - have become severely ill.  Some have required ventilators and some have died.

There are also regional differences in mortality by age, which may have to do with the health of the population, or the state of the healthcare system (overwhelmed or not? good system or not?), or other factors.

Bottom line - it's hard to tell.  But as a general rule, anybody over 50, especially with underlying conditions, needs to be really conservative.

Here's some current data about case fatality rate by age and by geography.

And this is a breakdown by underlying health condition.

 

Edited by Alan_A


Alan Ampolsk

"Ah, Paula, they are firing at me!"
-- Saint-Exupery

 

48 minutes ago, HiFlyer said:

are the people in danger not so much divided by age as by the existence of preexisting conditions, regardless of age?

At issue is that the top 5 comorbidities associated with higher risk of mortality with COVID-19, (at least from data out of New York) are also typical diseases you see in an aging population. The top five in order are: Hypertension, Diabetes, Hyperlipidemia, Coronary artery disease and Renal disease. Because hypertension is a major cause of renal failure those two are probably related. When additional data becomes available you will be able to control for these comorbidities in your statistical models and tease apart age verses comorbidities. 

Martin

Edited by MartinRex007

 

We are all connected..... To each other, biologically...... To the Earth, chemically...... To the rest of the Universe atomically.
 
Devons rig
Intel Core i5 13600K @ 5.1GHz / G.SKILL Trident Z5 RGB Series Ram 64GB / GIGABYTE GeForce RTX 4070 Ti GAMING OC 12G Graphics Card / Sound Blaster Z / Meta Quest 2 VR Headset / Klipsch® Promedia 2.1 Computer Speakers / ASUS ROG SWIFT PG279Q ‑ 27" IPS LED Monitor ‑ QHD / 1x Samsung SSD 850 EVO 500GB / 2x Samsung SSD 860 EVO 1TB /  1x Samsung - 970 EVO Plus 2TB NVMe /  1x Samsung 980 NVMe 1TB / 2 other regular hd's with up to 10 terabyte capacity / Windows 11 Pro 64-bit / Gigabyte Z790 Aorus Elite AX Motherboard LGA 1700 DDR5

This is why this will take longer than people think.

 

Raymond Fry.

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Both age and preexisting conditions are factors contracting the disease and for mortality.  My brother who is in a long term care facility is especially at risk.  He is 83 and has congestive heat failure and blood cancer.  It would be fatal for him.

Still only a small fraction of the people are contracting the disease and only a small fraction of them die from it.  But, of course, if you or someone you know contracts it and dies then it is 100% for you.

Noel

The tires are worn.  The shocks are shot.  The steering is wobbly.  But the engine still runs fine.

I'm slightly confused here. If I was to say "Where's the fire?" I'm not belittling tragedies going on at the moment, but bear with me. "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.."

Total deaths in the UK for 2018 = 541,589 (according to Google)

So, divide that by 4 and you get approx. 135400 per quarter average.

Current UK death toll for first quarter 2020 = 150057 (up to 3rd April, official statistics)

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales/2020

NOT too much greater than normal in a population of 66.65 million or so. The UK system dealt (not necessarily coped) with "only" 15000 less deaths in the first quarter of 2018 and nobody said anything...

Mark Robinson

Part-time Ferroequinologist

Author of FLIGHT: A near-future short story (ebook available on amazon)

I made the baby cry - A2A Simulations L-049 Constellation

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3 minutes ago, HighBypass said:

NOT too much greater than normal in a population of 66.65 million or so. The UK system dealt (not necessarily coped) with "only" 15000 less deaths in the first quarter of 2018 and nobody said anything...

How true, now imagine these numbers right now without any precautions (ie. social distancing)

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