2 hours ago, MartinRex007 said:

 

At issue is that the top 5 comorbidities associated with higher risk of mortality with COVID-19, (at least from data out of New York) are also typical diseases you see in an aging population. The top five in order are: Hypertension, Diabetes, Hyperlipidemia, Coronary artery disease and Renal disease. Because hypertension is a major cause of renal failure those two are probably related. When additional data becomes available you will be able to control for these comorbidities in your statistical models and tease apart age verses comorbidities. 

Martin

Any other factors and mortality? I've heard there are correlations with blood type and ethnicity. Of course, it's politically incorrect to talk about ethnicity being relevant, but it doesnt change facts if true. 

Edited April 10, 20206 yr by odourboy

3 minutes ago, odourboy said:

Of course, it's politically incorrect to talk about ethnicity being relevant

It's relevant to talk about ethnicity for socioeconomic reasons.  Poor and marginalized communities tend to do much worse in pandemics and the same seems to be happening here. It's because those communities are generally in poorer health as a result of issues like diet, jobs that don't allow for telework or social distancing, and diminished access to health resources.

Of course, contagion doesn't discriminate and higher infection rates in those communities mean greater danger for everyone.  Again, the lesson of every pandemic is that the pathogen knows we're all equal under the skin, even if we don't agree.  The virus gets the deciding vote.

6 minutes ago, Nedo68 said:

How true, now imagine these numbers right now without any precautions ...

I cannot, because the lockdown is in place, society has changed.

1 minute ago, HighBypass said:

I cannot, because the lockdown is in place, society has changed.

i think you misunderstud me, imagine the numbers without a lockdown

30 minutes ago, HighBypass said:

I'm slightly confused here. If I was to say "Where's the fire?" I'm not belittling tragedies going on at the moment, but bear with me. "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.."

Total deaths in the UK for 2018 = 541,589 (according to Google)

So, divide that by 4 and you get approx. 135400 per quarter average.

Current UK death toll for first quarter 2020 = 150057 (up to 3rd April, official statistics)

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales/2020

NOT too much greater than normal in a population of 66.65 million or so. The UK system dealt (not necessarily coped) with "only" 15000 less deaths in the first quarter of 2018 and nobody said anything...

You're not factoring in exponential growth rates.  The issue isn't the total number of cases and deaths to date, it's the rapid increase in cases and deaths - deaths are doubling every six days in the UK and US.  Cases are doubling every eight days in the UK and the US. Then think about the high hospitalization rates, and the high proportion of hospitalized cases that require ICU beds.

The death figures you're talking about are annualized and, with small variations, evenly distributed throughout the year.  The covid-19 cases are happening all at once, at a rate that threatens to overwhelm hospital capacity.  That's the problem.

You're saying, in effect, "There's not much fire here.  It's in the fireplace and a little of it just jumped to the curtains." The issue is what happens next.

Another analogy - in a tsunami, the total amount of water in the ocean doesn't change.  It's the enormous amount of it crashing ashore at once that causes the problems.

Think contagion.  Think growth rate.  Think spread.

25 minutes ago, odourboy said:

Any other factors and mortality? I've heard there are correlations with blood type and ethnicity.

Haven't heard about blood type but some early data broken down by ethnicity show a difference in mortality outcome, Alan mentions some of those reasons above.

A recent article from Lancet showed at the clinical level, increasing odds of in-hospital death from COVID-19 is associated with older age, higher Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score (measures the functionality of 6 organ systems in the body), and d-dimer greater than 1 μg/mL (indication of cloting) on admission to the hospital.

Median duration of viral shedding was 20·0 days in survivors, but SARS-CoV-2 was detectable until death in non-survivors. The longest observed duration of viral shedding in survivors was 37 days. This was a interesting finding!

Unfortunately the risk factors for a fatal outcome from COVID-19 are things we can't change, age, race, gender, (males have a higher risk then females) or illnesses or bad health habits we have already acquired over a life time. 

Aha. Thank you gents! Confusion lessened!

1 minute ago, MartinRex007 said:

...The longest observed duration of viral shedding in survivors was 37 days. This was a interesting finding!

So... isolate for 40 days? By Viral shedding do you mean it has gone and you are no longer contagious?

19 minutes ago, Alan_A said:

NOT too much greater than normal in a population of 66.65 million or so. The UK system dealt (not necessarily coped) with "only" 15000 less deaths in the first quarter of 2018 and nobody said anything...

In addition to Alan's comments, these are 'extra' deaths from a single cause which attracts attention. For example UK road accident deaths would typically be about 800 in the first quarter, If that number grew by 10,000 it would probably attract a lot of attention.

7 minutes ago, Biggles2010 said:

For example UK road accident deaths would typically be about 800 in the first quarter, If that number grew by 10,000 it would probably attract a lot of attention.

Exactly.

Just a correction for the record - in the quote in your post just above, you're actually quoting HighBypass, not me.  I'm on the "it's big and it's getting bigger!" side of the equation... 😎

As is HighBypass, I think, now that we've all exchanged notes...

There's a lot to keep on top of here for those keeping score at home - it ain't easy.

6 minutes ago, HighBypass said:

By Viral shedding do you mean it has gone and you are no longer contagious?

Viral shedding refers to the virus progeny is still being released from the host cell, which in this case would be cells in your lungs and heart,( both organs have the ACE2 receptors that appear to be the site where the virus attaches). You are still contagious if you are still shedding viruses.

Martin

 

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On ‎4‎/‎9‎/‎2020 at 3:03 PM, Alan_A said:

For anybody who needs variety, a lot of gyms and yoga studios and martial arts places and such are streaming their classes online  Good way to mix up your routine.

I watched Jack Lalanne work out daily for years. I never lost a pound, much less any inches on my waist! What went wrong?

9 hours ago, birdguy said:

If there's a will there's a way..

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/9/1936012/-88-year-old-can-t-visit-his-wife-in-the-nursing-home-tree-company-has-other-ideas

Daily Kos is my go to site for maintaining my sanity these days. A very good friend of mine just lost her husband of 64 years on April 8th. In his case it wasn't Covid-19, but simply organ failure from multiple surgeries, diabetes, and assorted other problems. The truly sad thing is that she couldn't even be with him as he passed. Diabetes is nothing to take lightly. My niece's husband refused to take his diabetes seriously and it cost him his life eight years ago.

4 hours ago, HiFlyer said:

My niece is positively frantic about keeping me (and her mother) in the house, the public perception being that older people are dropping like flies, but I kind of wonder about the actual parameters of the problem, since in my state (for instance) the largest number of infected are people under 50, with older people being in 3rd place.

In Indiana, the highest number of confirmed cases fall into the 50-59 range, but the highest death rate falls in the 80-89 range. Not surprisingly, men's deaths are about 7% more than women's.

The toll a viral pandemic inflicts upon a society is not just measured by the death it leaves behind. Throughout history pandemics have disrupted and changed societies. The real damage is measured on more of a personal and economic level. This COVID-19 pandemic has already exposed vulnerabilities in the modern world's preparedness and ability to contain this virus. The damage to the world economy threaten the worst recession since the Great Depression, as highlighted by a speech recently from the IMF. Millions of individuals around the globe may never be able to recover financially. Depending on how the world responds to this pandemic will define and shape how our world moves forward.  Stay safe everyone!

Martin

Edited April 11, 20206 yr by MartinRex007

I recently lost 52 lbs (242 to 192). It took me 15 months. The secret.....forget all that working-out stuff (been there done that). Just stop eating all that high-carb food.......Doug

1 hour ago, MartinRex007 said:

Haven't heard about blood type but some early data broken down by ethnicity show a difference in mortality outcome....

I found an article based on a Chinese study which indicates blood type A may be the most suseptable group and O, the least:

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/does-your-blood-type-increase-your-risk-for-coronavirus

4 minutes ago, odourboy said:

I found an article based on a Chinese study which indicates blood type A may be the most suseptable group and O, the least:

Interesting, thanks!