Do we Cancel Everything? You still Travelling??

[martin-w 3,235]

5 hours ago, KevinAu said:

The cdc recommends using a scarf if nothing else is available. You’re still arguing that since the perfect mask is not a available now, that this is it and forever, nothing can be done nor attempted and there should be no mandate.

 

 

Huh... no I'm not. Just saying that your premise is in regard to lowering restriction's and dropping social distancing and quarantine isn't feasible if we all don minimally effective masks. .And that a simple minimally effective, or as you say "scarf" is fair enough if we are wandering the streets for a limited time, but in close proximity, at work, in an office, in the work place that is unlikely to offer sufficient protection.

This is actually still a controversial topic. With some scientists for mask use by the public and some scientists still against. This very evening on the BBC news this was covered. And one of the objections those SCIENTISTS against masks have, is that it will provide a false sense of security, and encourage people to ignore social distancing. I guess they were right, because that is is exactly what you are advocating. You are using "have a mask" as an excuse to lower the restrictions and abandon or lessen social distancing and in fact you even said end quarantine.

Again... nations like South Korea who have handled this crisis better than us, use masks for sure, but they ALSO practice social distancing. BOTH must be adhered to. Having a mask should not be an excuse to abandon social distancing as you advocate. 

 

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Everybody use a scarf now. In a few weeks everybody use a proper cloth mask. In a few months, everybody gets gold plated N95s.

 

Absolutely! Awesome!" I agree! (Some scientists don't agree) But DON'T as you advocate, abandon or lessen social distancing until its appropriate to do so. Because that is exactly what scientists are worried we might do. And why many scientists, including the WHO, are against masks. 

 

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This disease is not going away anytime soon. And unless everybody is masked up, bandana or otherwise, the economy cannot come back. 

 

Depends how you define soon but "going away soon" is not the objective. The objective is to spread the number of cases out over a greater time frame. Same number of cases less strain on the health services. The economy will not come back whether we are wearing masks or not, because social distancing must be retained in conjunction with masks to flatten the curve in the most efficient way. When that is achieved, and we see the curve flatten, and hopefully dip down, social distancing will be reduced. Social distancing IS our most effective weapon currently.

 

 

[martin-w 3,235]

5 hours ago, KevinAu said:

But an existence based on a life devoted to continually flattening the curve will continue to hinder the economy.

 

Nobody is going to be "continually flattening the curve". As the cases natuarlly diminish socail diusnacing will be reduced. Precisely why the UK government is to decide newt week, where we are, and if restrictions can be lowered. Viruses come in cycles. There's no reason why nCov shouldn't be the same. Furthermore, viruses mutate and usually end up less virulent. In a few months time we will also understand this virus better, have drugs to help those suffering (Hydroxychloroquine for example which shows promise) and ultimately a vaccine. 

 

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Until there is a vaccine, the quasi herd immunity produced by using masks liberalizes what people have confidence to do. 

 

And the above is EXACTLY what scientist are warning us against. 

 

To be honest, you're not an expert! I'm not an expert! And those who are experts are still disagreeing with each other whether masks are helpful for the general public or not. So its a bit silly that you and I are debating this. A bit silly that either of us are stating anything regarding this definitively! 

 

Edited April 8, 2020 by martin-w

[MartinRex007 390]

3 hours ago, martin-w said:

Viruses come in cycles.

Depends on the virus, what cycle is HIV, HPV, Herpes, Hepatitis A, B, and C. etc., on? The longer COVID-19 remains in the population the higher the chance it will become endemic (not to mistake with epidemic). If it gains a foothold in any country it wasn't previously found, there is a chance it will become endemic in that country, which then might result in sporadic outbreaks. The best hope for long term prevention of the disease COVID-19 will obviously be a vaccine. To early to tell if SARS-CoV-2 will become seasonal like Influenza until it can be determine what organism will act as a host species for the virus. It is thought that certain species of bats in China and parts of Asia act as a host, to both SARS, and SARS-CoV-2. Much more research needs to be done on the life cycle of this virus, and other viruses in the Coronaviridae family. Stay safe everyone!

Martin

 

 

Edited April 8, 2020 by MartinRex007

[KevinAu 441]

1 hour ago, martin-w said:

 

Huh... no I'm not. Just saying that your premise is in regard to lowering restriction's and dropping social distancing and quarantine isn't feasible..

I agree that reducing social distancing increases risk. But like I said before, the social distancing will be lifted in the usa whether or not the virus says we should. The highest levels of this government want the restrictions ended sooner rather than later and only one doctor is standing in the way of that. Which is why it is important to have a mask requirement to reduce risks when the social distancing and stay at home orders are lifted against medical advice for baseball season here in the usa.

Edited April 8, 2020 by KevinAu

[HighBypass 2,339]

.and when there's a peak resurgence in infected cases after the early lifting of social distancing,  Americans can turn around and say "I told you so!" Well, the remaining ones can...

Assuming that everyone will be wearing masks provided by the govt. who lifted the distancing too early...

Baseball is a sport, not a necessity. Granted it is also a way of life for many people, but not a necessity. Just saying.. F1, Indy and NASCAR aren't a necessity, just big business and entertainment..

[Biggles2010 343]

33 minutes ago, HighBypass said:

Baseball is a sport, not a necessity. Granted it is also a way of life for many people, but not a necessity. Just saying.. F1, Indy and NASCAR aren't a necessity, just big business and entertainment..

And I guess it won't be long before the FA and the Premier League persuade the media to start campaigning for soccer to start up again. Hope the government doesn't cave in too soon.

Edited April 8, 2020 by Biggles2010

[Alan_A 1,650]

I'd hope that if and when restrictions are lifted, it's done in a very cautious, incremental way - letting certain essential businesses open up, but with strict safeguards and distancing requirements still in place.

I hope it's not a matter of "open the chute and let 'em out, boys!"

With luck there'll be voices other than "one doctor" - like every medical authority, every medical association, and most (can't count on all) state and local governments.

What seems to be escaping the "start it up!" crowd is that flattening the curve extends the timeline.  It's about spreading out cases so the medical system can handle them.  A leveling in cases is not, repeat not, grounds for an all-clear.

Edited April 8, 2020 by Alan_A

[Matthew Kane 1,343]

1 hour ago, Alan_A said:

I'd hope that if and when restrictions are lifted, it's done in a very cautious, incremental way - letting certain essential businesses open up, but with strict safeguards and distancing requirements still in place.

This is how we have done it in New Zealand, Currently we are currently at a Level 4 nationwide, which is lockdown, We won't have a situation where it is lifted entirely nationwide, it will be adjusted according to regions, some regions may go down to a level 3 or 2 and some may remain a level 4, so we won't be having a celebration when it's over as that could start it all up again. Each region will vary according to clusters

Here is our chart:

[Alan_A 1,650]

8 minutes ago, Matthew Kane said:

This is how we have done it in New Zealand

And that's exactly how it should be done.  Our equivalent should be a selective stepdown from your Level 4 to Level 3.

Hope everybody takes the time to study the chart - and push your elected officials for the equivalent.

[Nedo68 533]

22 minutes ago, Matthew Kane said:

so we won't be having a celebration when it's over as that could start it all up again. Each region will vary according to clusters.

Austria starts a similar strategy, the relaxation of things that are not allowed right now anymore, and i hope gemany too,

but dont forget as long as there will be no vaccination for this virus we will have to keep our distance to other people,

so we are done for 2020 with the idea to get back to life before corona.

 

[Matthew Kane 1,343]

16 minutes ago, Alan_A said:

And that's exactly how it should be done.  Our equivalent should be a selective stepdown from your Level 4 to Level 3.

Hope everybody takes the time to study the chart - and push your elected officials for the equivalent.

Yes we were smart about it, we didn't debate it wasting time on this, and even our political opposition party dropped all partisans and joined the comity on this. But the difference is we have always been a nation that is easier to manage. The USA has a Federal Government, then 50 state legislatures, plus thousands of municipal governments, impossible to come to a common agreement in that political environment on things like this. Also Freedom of Movement is a constitutional protected activity in the First Amendment, therefore very difficult to limit people rights on movement.

[Alan_A 1,650]

@Matthew Kane - Agree that we're more fractious, though we've done better in the past, at least at times.

A smaller population and fewer point of entry also makes New Zealand easier to manage.  Still, leadership was decisive and that deserves enormous credit.

One tweak - freedom of movement isn't a first amendment issue but it is constitutional - it falls under Article IV, Section 2, Clause 1 - the Privileges and Immunities Clause. More here about the implications for interstate travel among other things.

In practical terms, it comes to the same thing, even though the Bill of Rights has special weight.

Thus endeth the US civics lesson for today... 😎

 

Edited April 8, 2020 by Alan_A

[Matthew Kane 1,343]

That’s fine I’m not American but my mom is, she would have corrected me too.  I was watching these guys and found this astounding 

https://youtu.be/jyk7_a5SsUE

Edited April 8, 2020 by Matthew Kane

[Alan_A 1,650]

38 minutes ago, Matthew Kane said:

That’s fine I’m not American but my mom is, she would have corrected me too.  I was watching these guys and found this astounding 

https://youtu.be/jyk7_a5SsUE

They're truly geniuses.  And unfortunately they're not alone. Think of them as a local flavor.

It would be interesting to have a conversation with them about the basis for stay-at-home orders under the "police power" granted to the states under the ultimate authority of the Tenth Amendment.

But I suspect they wouldn't be all that receptive.

In fairness, restrictions on interstate travel are less clear - who are militant about them are really citing the Articles of Confederation, whether they know it or not.

About the legalisms - I'm not a lawyer but I'm married to one, so it rubs off (and I can consult when I need to).

Lots of gnarly stuff to explore while all this unfolds.

 

[HiFlyer 9,360]

1 hour ago, Alan_A said:

@Matthew Kane - Agree that we're more fractious, though we've done better in the past, at least at times.

A smaller population and fewer point of entry also makes New Zealand easier to manage.  Still, leadership was decisive and that deserves enormous credit.

One tweak - freedom of movement isn't a first amendment issue but it is constitutional - it falls under Article IV, Section 2, Clause 1 - the Privileges and Immunities Clause. More here about the implications for interstate travel among other things.

In practical terms, it comes to the same thing, even though the Bill of Rights has special weight.

Thus endeth the US civics lesson for today... 😎

 

The thorny problem of separation of church and state, religious freedom, and etc has also raised an ugly head, especially problematic for conservatives who know that their reelections may hinge upon staying on good terms with religious voters. Thus we add some "Spiritual leaders" determined to continue calling their followers to gather in large numbers for various reasons.

I have no real objections to this as I consider it to be a prime example of Darwin in action.

Where I do get angry is in realizing that when these people nearly inevitably get sick, they will become yet another factor in overwhelming teetering medical systems worldwide, incidently taking resources away from people who aren't dumbasses, and contributing to the endangerment of essential workers who likely would much rather not have the additional completely avoidable work.

I divide my disgust equally between so called leaders of any sort (political/religious or other) that lead the people who have ceded responsibility for their own and their families safety (and that of unwitting bystanders) to such "leaders" words and judgement.

Kudos to those that work to protect their people.

Edited April 9, 2020 by HiFlyer