26 minutes ago, KevinAu said:

it is time to act” without waiting for evidence, the authors say.“

 

In any scientific endeavour, that can be a potentially troublesome philosophy. A troublesome philosophy because unseen adverse consequences could be manifest.

I'm not saying don't do it, just that the above has to be born in mind if we decide to guess. 

1 hour ago, martin-w said:

 

In any scientific endeavour, that can be a potentially troublesome philosophy. A troublesome philosophy because unseen adverse consequences could be manifest.

I'm not saying don't do it, just that the above has to be born in mind if we decide to guess. 

If the masks have been part of the response strategy for years in some countries that have dealt with this successfully, then would it not make sense to adopt their strategies? And given the cultural resistance in the west already to portions of the strategy, is it not harmful to continue to give people in the west encouragement to resist any part of the strategies?

TWO strains of covid attacking Australia!?

The scientists around the world better make bloody sure they have properly isolated each strain or else any vaccine will be useless. As a layman, would I be right in thinking there is a need for a GOLD STANDARD of testing? Almost 100% accurate.. Have they even injected the virus on living cells then a test could be performed? By living cells, I'm going out on a moralistic limb here - I reckon there's plenty of bad people on Death Row or life imprisonment with irrefutable evidence of why they are there.. Lee Rigby's killers being two for example..

Here's a batch of known infected cells - the test would show 100% positive. Here's a batch of healthy cells, the test would show 100% negative.. I believe that would only work if the virus or disease was isolated with no other factors of contamination.

...but I'm not a Doctor, Jim!! 

3 hours ago, KevinAu said:

If the masks have been part of the response strategy for years in some countries that have dealt with this successfully, then would it not make sense to adopt their strategies? 

 

That depends. They may have been more successful than us due to all of the other measures they undertook. And they may have been even more successful without the makeshift and cloth masks. 

In addition, the countries who have been better prepared than us, like South Korea, are mostly using N95 masks, and the article in question, and this discussion, is about makeshift masks and basic cloth masks. As the article stated, we don't have enough studies to know for sure if such masks are effective, or even if they could increase the possibility of infection in some circumstances.

As I said, I'm not against going down that route... but as I said, we must accept that in essence its a guess. A guess with a low but non zero chance of adverse consequences.

 

 

Edited April 12, 20206 yr by martin-w

11 minutes ago, martin-w said:

 

That depends. They may have been more successful than us due to all of the other measures they undertook. And they may have been even more successful without the makeshift and cloth masks. 

In addition, the countries who have been better prepared than us, like South Korea, are mostly using N95 masks, and the article in question, and this discussion, is about makeshift masks and basic cloth masks. As the article stated, we don't have enough studies to know for sure if such masks are effective, or even if they could increase the possibility of infection in some circumstances.

As I said, I'm not against going down that route... but as I said, we must accept that in essence its a guess. A guess with a low but non zero chance of adverse consequences.

 

 

Everything we do has a non zero chance of adverse consequences. Social distancing and isolation causes its own problems. It has serious economic effects and psychological effects as well. Job loss, domestic violence, things that social distancing and isolation causes have their own physical harms. No different than the harm from mishandling a mask or taking undue risks because of wearing a mask. Therefore it is not a valid assertion to say not to wear a mask because it can be mishandled or that it does not contain all particles. If it can contain some particles, then it has made a positive difference. If you fear mishandling, then the public can be educated through television and other forms of public communication with regards to the right way they should be handled.

It will be a balancing act between the needs of an economic recovery and the needs of stamping out the disease. Those charged with promoting economic recovery will argue for lifting the restrictions. Those charged with stopping the disease will argue to continue the restrictions. Already in the usa, the president is forming an ‘economic task force’. Most likely, this task force will be used as a counter against the coronavirus task force made of doctors to make the case for lifting restrictions. With the lifting and relaxing of social distancing requirements soon coming to this country, most likely against the advice of the coronavirus task force doctors, it would only make sense that measures such as mandatory mask wearing be in place, as people start leaning closer to each other again in a few weeks.

4 hours ago, HighBypass said:

would I be right in thinking there is a need for a GOLD STANDARD of testing

The RT-PCR (Real Time-Polymerase Chain Reaction) test is considered the gold standard. Even with a number of existing SARS-CoV-2 strains, which have minor mutations. ( genetic drift is common with viruses). The RT-PCR test amplifies a specific gene or segment of DNA/RNA using a primer that is unique to the SAR-CoV-2 virus regardless of the subtype. This is how a positive ID of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is achieved.   What effect these small variations in  this  virus will have on  vaccine development will depend on the types of vaccines being developed, Whole- Pathogen, Subunit, or Nucleic Acid, etc. 

Martin

Edited April 12, 20206 yr by MartinRex007

However, there appears to be an issue with RT-PCR doesn't there? Or am I missing something?

Do I trust the BBC?  This article was dated February, so I can only hope improvements have been made..

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51491763

I should probably ignore the BBC and just watch AVSIM - I certainly get a lot less stressed! 

 

3 minutes ago, HighBypass said:

However, there appears to be an issue with RT-PCR doesn't there?

Yes, there were some issues early on, like any test they are only as good as the reagents used and the folks doing the test. As you mention this article was from February and since then things have gotten back on track. 

Martin 

21 hours ago, Reader said:

I think the point that you are missing is that by the time that "we see the numbers start rising a bit more rapidly" it is already far too late.

Exactly so. At that point the horse has already left the barn. Even the independent folks from SE New Mexico should understand that analogy.

3 hours ago, KevinAu said:

Therefore it is not a valid assertion to say not to wear a mask because it can be mishandled or that it does not contain all particles. If it can contain some particles, then it has made a positive difference. 

 

 

Huh... nobody has said don't wear a mask. (Makeshift cloth masks) I didn't say don't wear masks and neither did the article I linked to and quoted from. Just that if we do, we do so on the basis that there is not enough evidence to say they trap viruses. Read the article, I simply quoted from the article. 

 

Quote

Everything we do has a non zero chance of adverse consequences. 

 

And in terms of cloth masks, we have no idea if they help, or make matters worse. So we are left with only one alternative, make an educated guess. If you are happy with making an educated guess and accepting the possibility of adverse consequences, rather than definitive research that is your prerogative. But we need to be aware that we are essentially making educated guesses. 

 

Quote

Social distancing and isolation causes its own problems. It has serious economic effects and psychological effects as well. Job loss, domestic violence, things that social distancing and isolation causes have their own physical harms.

 

I suspect that the above is based on your notion that we can relax social distancing if we wear masks. Not relevant. Not relevant because we have already established that social distancing measures stay in place along with mask use. Both are required together. As the article said, and as I have said before in this discussion... " Wearing a mask is not meant to be a replacement for social distancing, hand washing and other efforts." If many of us head back to work because we think our makeshift cloth masks will work, and it turns out they don't, then we are exposing a considerable percentage of the population to the virus. 

 As the article pointed out, simply breathing might emit smaller particles. Now if the suggestion that this virus can be contracted from finer particles is true, that's an issue. On the other hand, if finer particles from breathing aren't an issue and larger droplets from sneezing and coughing are required, a makeshift cloth mask will probably help. 

We don't really know for sure which of the above droplet sizes are an issue. So we cant say if our cloth makeshift masks will help.  

 

3 hours ago, KevinAu said:

If you fear mishandling, then the public can be educated through television and other forms of public communication with regards to the right way they should be handled.

 

They already have been. Trouble is a considerable proportion of the  general public pay little attention to such advise.  

 

Quote

With the lifting and relaxing of social distancing requirements soon coming to this country, most likely against the advice of the coronavirus task force doctors, it would only make sense that measures such as mandatory mask wearing be in place, as people start leaning closer to each other again in a few weeks.

 

If that's true I agree. But again, makeshift cloths masks may or may not work. We do not know. I'm no expert, but as I said above, if it is true that smaller particles from breathing can infect others, and aren't stopped by the mask... they wont work. 

Edited April 12, 20206 yr by martin-w

They now say the virus can travel 13 feet.  Does that mean we have to separate ourselves twice as far as now suggested?  And they say the virus can now travel on your shoes.  So do we have to put little booties on our shoes now?

I also meant to ask if the 6 foot separation applies inside your household.  Should husbands and wives sleep in separate bedrooms until this ting is over?

https://thehill.com/homenews/news/492351-coronavirus-can-travel-up-to-13-feet-study

 

BTW...My brother is in a long term care facility because of several health problems.  The place is in lockdown.  The patients can't leave and no visitors are allowed inside.  Yesterday he called me and said he needed mouthwash and toothpaste.  This morning I delivered them to the place.  

I went into the lobby and noticed one girl in an office was wearing a mask but the girl manning the desk where you go to to deliver stuff to the patients wasn't.  I told her to deliver the bag to my brother.  She went down the hall sans mask.

Later I phoned him and asked him if the staff wore masks.  He told me they were very loose about that and only about half of them did.  Less than half at the market where I went to buy the stuff for him.

Noel

 

 

Edited April 12, 20206 yr by birdguy

@birdguy - I think the idea is to take reasonable precautions.  Six feet is a good, common-sense distance.  The 13-foot figure is for people in a hospital setting who are sneezing violently.  If you saw someone on the street doing that - and if the person wasn't masked, and if you weren't masked - then it'd be a good idea to back off.

Re: shoes - don't need booties but it might be a good idea to take them off at the entrance and maybe wipe them down with a Clorox wipe or spray them with a 2-percent bleach solution and then wash your hands. You can control a lot of things at your entrance - like wiping down delivery boxes and letting them sit in the entryway for a day before you open them.

Washing your hands is the main thing.  Do that often, avoid touching your face, and wipe down high-contact surfaces like doorknobs, refrigerator handles and countertops and you're way ahead of the game.  Wearing a mask is a good idea to protect others as well as yourself.  I wear gloves when I'm outside and then take them off (and wash) as soon as I get in.

About husbands and wives - as long as they're keeping to the same circle and neither is going out and getting into close contact with lots of other people, then it's all good. The only reason to separate from somebody inside the house is if one person is sick and the other isn't. The idea is to stay in a small circle where you can keep track of where everyone's been.  There's a woman who does cleaning for us and I've stopped her visiting because she has to go from house to house and there's no way to know whether her other clients are keeping good discipline or not (I still pay her, though). But my wife and I (and the cats) are moving around freely inside the apartment.

In all, it's a bunch of extra steps and it's a pain, but it doesn't involve going nuts.

My niece stopped by to visit today, and looked like a reject from a bad sci-fi film. Full length white hazmat suit with mask, gloves and rubber booties. She'd gone shopping at Walmart for a new sewing machine (none available)

She is offering me a similar getup to wear, but I swear, pandemic or not, I just cannot in any way see myself wandering around in such an outfit.

Even cats would laugh at me.

Call me stubborn, but I pretty much would rather take my chances with an N95 and some gloves.

Or, I could just completely stay my word not allowed at home........ 😷

Edit: Meanwhile a huge white fluffy critter was seen racing by...... Seems with all the egg hunts cancelled, the Easter Bunny is visiting local children personally on a borrowed firetruck.......

Is anyone else having weird flashes of unreality occasionally, or is it just me?

Edited April 13, 20206 yr by HiFlyer

16 minutes ago, HiFlyer said:

Is anyone else having weird flashes of unreality occasionally, or is it just me?

Yes - but I can't tell which is which.

15 minutes ago, HiFlyer said:

Is anyone else having weird flashes of unreality occasionally, or is it just me?

Other then staying home I am not doing any other precautions. I have online ordered my groceries once a week and go and pick them up. I have been home and doing that for 3 weeks now and been home other than for grocery pick up. When I do go out no masks or gloves because I don't have any. Personally I am not worried if I got the virus but I stay home to protect others, I am more concerned for others than I am for myself. If it kills me it kills me if not Que sera, that's what life is full of risks.

My daughter that is almost 2 years old now got meningitis when she was only 2 months old. We took her to the hospital and they started treatment right away and started tests, 4 days in they confirmed what type of meningitis she had and also were not treating her for that type of meningitis, therefore the stopped all treatment as her prognosis was improving on her own, therefore she got meningitis and fought it off on her own by building her own antibodies as this is what the body is supposed to do when things do work. Today she has no signs of any damage from it therefore a very lucky baby. 

With this one I am on the fence, it is very likely a vaccine is never found and I am willing to except that, therefore those who have had it early on are the first to build their own antibodies, if this thing does its rounds and mutates, those not yet exposed may be at much greater risk compared to the early exposed ones. There are so many variables but part of me looks at those who have had it already and have now recovered and I think those ones are probably better positioned then the rest of us, this of course is if a vaccine is never found.