On 12/22/2022 at 5:35 AM, mSparks said:

Xplane 12 and DCS basically being neck and neck is a huge surprise. Its looking increasingly to me like the fall of msfs as it becomes dated will be a lot quicker than it was for FSX and P3D, I'm not picking up anywhere near the commitment to the MS based sims that there was in the past.

I could be wrong, but I just don't see MSFS even slowing down yet, let alone an impending downfall...

how are you coming to that conclusion?

I mean just comparing the number of posts on AvSim between the two sims is highly instructive: MSFS is basically 4x XP presently, AND the first XP post was way back in 2008, so the total number before Aug 2020 would have to be excluded to get to an accurate XP total.

You mention the previous downfalls of FSX & Prepar3D, but there are clearly reasons for that, no?

MS decided to stop producing FSX and licensed it to Steam, 

and Prepar3D's downfall was obviously MSFS 2020, PLUS P3D was never officially licensed or marketed to consumers. Lockheed Martin was making big bucks from military and commercial contracts and didn't really care about consumer.

So much so that it has been rumored that P3D v6 or the Unreal version won't even be offered to consumers...

Even so, before then P3D was running absolute neck and neck with X-Plane for years (according to Navigraph). Despite the fact that XP is primarily marketed to consumers...

This is further bolstered by the vast majority of FSX/P3D players migrating to MSFS rather than X-Plane, along with a substantial number choosing to remain on P3D/FSX...

57 minutes ago, UrgentSiesta said:

Since you're a dev, you must have more/different data or deeper breakdowns?

Not really.

57 minutes ago, UrgentSiesta said:

And nowhere have I seen that XP v12 has 1/3 the number of users of MSFS... (i've yet to see numbers like that even for v11 vs MSFS).

No offense, but it's basic math.

57 minutes ago, UrgentSiesta said:

I'd like it if your numbers were true, just haven't seen them...

so, sources, please?

No problem.

Check the graphs.  They're the source.

Here's my breakdown.

Keeping in mind that not every person who uses a flight sim took the survey, but the numbers always average out in the end and end up looking like the graph.

Approximately 70%-75% of flight simmers who took the survey use MSFS.

Approximately 35% of those same people use X-Plane 11 and 20% use X-Plane 12.

If we're going to take the ratio of MSFS to XP11.  75/35.  2.15.  Or close to one half.  

Comparing XP12 to MSFS.  75/20.  That's 3.75.  So between 1/3 and 1/4.

                                      OR

I'll use it in actual numbers as an example.  Let's say 100 people in total are in the flight simming community (I'm using actual numbers to represent percentages).  Going by the survey, about 75 of them use MSFS.  35 use XP11 (A little less than half of the MSFS users).  And 20 use XP12 (A little under 1/3 of MSFS users).  If we were to combine XP11 and XP12 together, then that's a very healthy percentage of people who use X-Plane.  

No assumptions.  No guesses.  No privileged information.  

I know there are people who simply refuse to believe these numbers, as I've seen the comments in other forums.  I've seen posts where people were accusing the X-Plane community of taking the survey more than once.  It's just ridiculous.  

The numbers don't lie.  And they're there for everyone to see.  No opinions.  Just hard facts.

Edited December 25, 20223 yr by GoranM

1 hour ago, Dermot McClusky said:

It's MS, they're devious and sneaky. It's no wonder they're showing signs of weakness in this survey, as those who are smarter than I am have pointed out in this thread (there's no way MS can be happy about the numbers we're seeing here). I'm excited for LR to push XP12 into the next echelon and take the top spot!  mSparks is particularly good at explaining it; I'm kind of a peon in these discussions.

What “signs of weakness”? MSFS numbers this year are exactly the same as last year at 75 percent.

Your statement would only make sense if individuals only used one sim to the exclusion of all others. That may be true in the case of mSparks who says he has never used MSFS, but many people use both MSFS and XP. That is certainly the case for me - I have owned and flown every version of XP since version 8. I did a flight with the Citation X in XP12 just this morning, and another flight in the PMDG 737 this afternoon.

Indeed, the combined numbers for XP11 + XP12 look good, but a gain in users for one platform does not necessary mean a loss of users for a competing platform. 
 

 

1 minute ago, UrgentSiesta said:

I mean just comparing the number of posts on AvSim

Not really, I play at least as much if not more csgo than I use xplane, think Ive posted on those forums like maybe 3 times in the last decade, last time was when they

 

4 minutes ago, UrgentSiesta said:

how are you coming to that conclusion?

MSFS should, as a AAA title, have brought in 30 million+ users in its first few months, and thats a flop, successful AAA titles get that in their first few days.

They are claiming they are now at 10m, 2 years in.

But we have a pretty good estimate that XPlane has a few hundred thousand active users (and even then only about 20k actively seeking mooooorreeee), and is roughly 1/4 the size of MSFS (your posts example another data point that supports that)

So MSFS has well and truly stalled, probably at less than 1 million. And they arent happy- as you can see from all the forum posts.

On 12/22/2022 at 8:38 AM, Bjoern said:

I think my next [uninstall] candidate will be DCS if somebody doesn't come up with something to do in that otherwise very interesting open source A-4E.

The A-4E is an extremely well crafted addon and has a high-quality, X-Plane grade flight model. AFAIK it's The Best A-4 available in any sim - by a long shot.

It's also fully combat capable and carrier qualified in DCSW, and can take part in multiplayer combat missions on a number of servers.

IRL was also flown by the USN Blue Angels, and there are a surprising number of aerobatic squadrons in DCSW...

It even has terrain avoidance & ground mapping radar, INS and TACAN.

I mean, if you can't find something to do with it, I just don't know what to say..

If msfs has stalled then What do you call the current state of xplane?  I mean msfs easily is the most successful flight sim wr move ever seen. I’ve been using various sims since 1990 or so. You may not like the sim. That’s fine. But to suggest it has stalled really hurts any other argument you try to make as it impairs your credibility. 

15 minutes ago, JRBarrett said:

Your statement would only make sense if 

…if some of you guys had any sense of irony….

20 minutes ago, micstatic said:

What do you call the current state of xplane?

actually a tough question.

XP11.55 is a really solid sim, but was never really suitable for a wider general consumer market, to much time and skill needed to unpack all the boxes.

XP12 has the potential to really be a game changer, sleek enough graphics to satiate even the most demanding of gamers, solid enough default fleet to make even the most hardened "serious" flight simmers exclaim with glee. All that far exceeded my expectations.

But 12.00 isnt that game changer yet, there are still a good few big ticket spoilers to resolve, especially with replay, and the most exciting next gen tech that should be coming is nowhere to be seen yet.

However personally, for all the things I want and care about from it every category gets an 11/10.

Edited December 25, 20223 yr by mSparks

 

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As I have just posted at the homologous thread running at the MFS forum, I am convinced that most XP11 users will fully migrate to XP12 as compatibility issues get ironed out by developers of their base products. Xp12 is a very promising platform and I really believe it'll continue to grow in popularity and, above all, also in the quality / fine tuning of it's model of the World and of Flight, but !!!

Agreed.

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But for me I strongly believe a big surprise is coming from LM and the next version of P3D. Nothing has been officially announced regarding the next P3D having it's World Unigine-based, but I have a strong feeling it will be the case.

Maybe around 2024 P3D will occupy the 2nd place in the Navigraph Survey, converging to the 1st...

There are some facts to be aware of that I think will prevent P3D from making a comeback, though I've no doubt it will continue on in some manner.

a. It's primarily a Military & Commercial simulator. It's not even licensed for entertainment use (i.e., "Academic" users...)!

b. Lockheed Martin have already stated that Prepar3D v6 will continue to be based on the existing code base. Again, this is because of their gigantic Military and Commercial contracts.

c. They have announced a new simulator, or possibly a sim extension or integration will be / is being developed around Unreal Engine. And that it's, again, aimed squarely at Military / Commercial users who have large scale, truly complex exercises to simulate.

No mention yet of a consumer version. And this (sadly) seems to be a trend of several other promising sims being marketed at .Mil/.Gov, etc.

d. The utter collapse of the 3rd party addon market for consumer P3D products. MANY developers have announced they've completely halted P3D dev, and there are some who won't even offer support or compatibility patches moving forward. It's so pervasive that a large handful of them are literally giving their entire P3D/FSX product line away for free.

Even PMDG, who states they'll continue developing & supporting their P3D product line, is drawing quite a bit of criticism due not having actually released anything for P3D in quite awhile...

So while I would welcome another high fidelity simulator with open arms (particularly one that is combat oriented), signs are that it's not gonna happen for the foreseeable future.

 

Quote

Just using more cores? Anyone can build a random number generator in a 'for' loop that burns CPU cycles...oh wait, that's exactly what they're doing!

And yet, for a number of reasons other than threads/cores, I'm getting much "better" performance on my rig in MSFS than in XP. Either I can take that surplus in enhanced scenery detail, increased visual effects, or significantly higher FPS.

 

Quote

XP did that first in mobile. And it's a silly gimmick. The whole 'but you can fly with your friends!' is very much an xbox thing. Guaranteed that the vast majority of those on avsim using it, aren't doing it with notable regularity.

If MP is a silly gimmick, why is LR investing so much in developing it and evangelizing it?

MP is also a significant driver over in DCS World and Il2 Sturmovik because it's infinitely more satisfying to pit yourself against another human rather than a literally stupid AI.

Also, Multi-Crewed aircraft are quite popular over there as well. And it's been a staple feature of ESP addons, as well, including addons with a reputation of being for "serious use only"

 There are a growing number of MSFS public Group Flights being shared on social media, and it seems popular.

I can tell you that it's a great deal of fun to practice formation flying & flying with friends, whether in civ sim or mil sim.

Finally, MP is literally built in to XP desktop and has been for awhile. So again, why would LR continue to develop/enhance if it's just a silly gimmick?

 

"I'm not aware of any XP devs dropping 12 support. I'm not seeing the loss here. And there's nothing LR could have done to woo anyone else that they would actually want to get (eg PMDG)."

Umm...iniBuilds has already stated they will NOT be upgrading their Beluga or 300 to v12. And that even the 310 upgrade will be more along the lines of a minimal compatibility upgrade.

Meanwhile, IIRC, they've already released more addons for MSFS than they ever did for XP. And more are on the way.

Cowan Sims, who makes very good XP helos, literally just today released his Bell 206 for MSFS, stating that the MD 500 is close behind, and that he'll likely be bringing the rest of his XP fleet to MSFS as well.

Flying Iron Sims has also left XP, and hasn't issued a single update to their XP lineup since. Now they've also released more aircraft for MSFS than ever on XP. And they also are neck-deep in DCS World development.

I may be forgetting or not know about others, but that's substantially more than "none" as you claim.

and in the inverse, how many P3D or MSFS developers have gone to XP - and stayed?

PMDG tried and failed with the DC-6

MilViz/Blackbird bailed after the C310

And IIRC, only FlyInside seems to be developing for both sims, but are completely MSFS-first releases.

 

"...is fairly saturated now and I've heard more than one complaint about garbage addons for sale (thrown in your face in the opening map no less!) that are pure cash grabs. That number will certainly continue growing."

Au contraire... The number of High Fidelity & High Quality addons continues to rapidly grow in MSFS.

In addition to ALL the above devs, we have Just Flight cancelling their Airbus and 747 for P3D and moving those to MSFS, while not having released a single update for their (more expensive) XP addons.

They've also got a good handful of very high quality addons moved to MSFS, along with additional ones nearing release, etc.

iniBuilds even just released a nicely reviewed P-40 Warhawk, also a few of the new defaults in the 40th Anniv Edition.

PMDG has stated they've sold more units of the two MSFS addons for sale than all of their other addons for FSX & P3D combined.

Fenix came out of literally nowhere and has released what many IRL Airbus pilots consider to be The Best A320 in a consumer sim, ever.

Aerosoft make good mid-level addons (the CRJ having been somewhat of a triumph, and the Twin Otter a decent offering as of the latest update).

I could go on as there are many, many, many more examples of High Fidelity / High Quality addons being released for MSFS.

And this is in addition to MSFS' already substantial investment in increasing the fidelity of the Default addons, and their dev schedule has 3-4 major Sim Updates for 2024 that will be focused entirely on raising the fidelity of the rest of the addons. The pending Longitude & CJ4 upgrades already in Beta are receiving rave reviews.

And far from being "saturated", the list of requested

Sure, there will always be some low quality / low effort work that releases, and we see it in XP, too.

Edited December 25, 20223 yr by UrgentSiesta
another claim debunked

1 hour ago, mSparks said:

No confusion, just that trying to use a windows machine takes 15 hours eta to complete what linux and macos can do in 3 minutes for the same hardware.

I'm surprised you were able to get anything running at all given your team seems to be having troubles on deciding on what the target os is and reading the documentation. Let's get back to your perf comparisons after practising the basics.

Edited December 25, 20223 yr by Kopteeni

On 12/23/2022 at 11:20 AM, mSparks said:

20% of people who flight sim have tried xplane 12

Where is that number coming from?

22 minutes ago, UrgentSiesta said:

Where is that number coming from?

From the voices in his head?

10 hours ago, micstatic said:

a lot of excellent airplanes are coming in sims other than xplane.  As a non xp guy.  Can somebody list the top 5 airports and top 5 aircraft that are in development to be released in next year?    I personally do not see a rich portfolio of to be released payware coming to xplane.  It somewhat is similar to the development we are seeing with p3d.  Far more similar to p3d than msfs.  

While I agree with many of your other posts, this one not so much.

In terms of aircraft, it would seem you're forgetting the ENTIRE portfolio of MANY dozens of XP aircraft are being upgraded (and yes, they are legit upgrades - not updates - due to the substantial number of changes to the sim).

BUT, since they are upgrades, and not re-builds as was forced on the P3D -> MSFS devs, they're either already here, or will arrive en masse in just a few months, rather than the several years delay of MSFS.

In fact, quite a few of the Highest Rated XP addons are already available for v12. Many having no high quality counterpart in MSFS. A few examples (and I'll only list recently released High Fidelity addons that also look good😞

747? How about two, one Classic, one Modern.

Other wide body, long haul? 767-400, Airbus A340, Rotate MD-11, iniBuilds own A310, and even the older but decent A350 has been recently upgraded & updated and runs in v12.

We've also got brand-new 787 & 777 from Flight Factor in the pipeline for awhile now (and the level of detail is insane)

And even Laminar's own A330 is a good representation with all the important stuff, and will be even more so once the Airbus MCDU arrives. That assessment comes from a current Airbus pilot & youtuber who prefers MSFS, but isn't afraid to give credit where it's due.

Really the only conspicuous absence from XP is the A380.

How about twin engines? I think most of these have already been released: 757, Zibo 737, all the Hi Fi Airbuses, etc.

Regional? Definitely lagging there, but a good CRJ 700/900 is present.

Another thing XP does have at the mo is an unbelievably good twin turboprop Q400 Dash 8.

The extremely High Fidelity (& high priced) Challenger 650 from Hot Start also just released, and their TBM is next in line.

Aerobask already released their critically acclaimed Phenom 300, and the Falcon 8X is still in the pipeline, but has been moved back to make room for their several Diamond models, a Lancair RG, and a really cool little Viper Jet.

We've even got a High Fi CJ4 getting improved & polished for v12. Coming very soon...

There's a TON more out there, like helos (the Ubben/Khamsin AB 315 being one of the absolute best helos in any sim, and substantially upgraded for v12), the Cowan Sims, X-Trident Chinook,

The General Aviations like the Airfoil Labs C172, Thranda's entire line up (coming soon!), vSkyLabs stuff - all pretty recent

And don't discount the XP v12 Defaults - all have been upgraded to Payware Grade.

And one of my new Favorites is the F-14 Tomcat, which is one of the very best military jets available in all the civ sims.

There's also a truly new, Hi Fi F-4 Phantom coming to XP in the next few months.

And so many others, but this list is already "too long".

So the difference is that XP has a TREMENDOUS head start on already high quality addons that existed in v11, plus easily MORE than "the top 5" new ones you mentioned.

Scenery? I don't follow it as closely, but a steady stream of both upgraded and brand new airports are coming out, and they're easily on par with the better stuff in MSFS. Only major trend I haven't seen there like in MSFS is the hyper-micro-detail & interiors, etc.

And unlike in aircraft, there are a good handful of designers doing both platforms (Orbx, Boundless, VerticalSim, DD, Fly Tampa, et al).

So the perspective really needs to change here: in this regard (Hi Fi aircraft), XP is already FAR ahead, and it's MSFS that's eating dust...

 

9 hours ago, flying_carpet said:

Actually the result is relatively a disaster for MS. WHAT???? Ok - I'll explain. To simplify the calculation, I will concentrate on the 2 biggest players in the market. X-Plane consists of "3 people in a shed"^TM, whereas Asobo has hundreds of devolopers - let's say 200. That's a factor of 67 to 1. According to this, MSFS should have a market share of 98.5%, X-Plane only 1.5% (users who use both excluded, but it won't make a big difference). And the server costs for streaming the scenery aren't yet included.
Conclusion: huuuge effort for such a relatively poor result.

I forget the exact figures, but it's something less than 10 to 1.

And don't forget Laminar is on a hiring spree, so the ratio will go even lower.

And, at least according to Navigraph, there are at least as many people playing P3D as XP. And the stats show those folks are going to MSFS as it ramps up the number and fidelity of the available addons.

And for evidence of that, all you have to do is count the number of P3D devs who went to XP vs the number that went to MSFS. 

And as mentioned elsewhere, we have a number of prominent developers who have confirmed that they are selling more in MSFS than they ever did in P3D/FSX - sometimes by huge margins.

As far as MSFS, if it were as disappointing as several here believe, MS would already be dialing way back on the free stuff and the monthly significant content & sim upgrades would be shifting schedule to quarterly, etc.

Instead, they're doing pretty much the opposite, 3 years in.

Don't delude yourself. MS had no illusions about this being a "AAA sales" deal, and they're very happy with the incremental increase in users from Xbox.

The other thing to remember is that aside from the Flight Simulator, they have the best visual re-creation of the world ever made. And relatively speaking, it's highly accurate in physics, weather, etc., etc.

Indeed, The World is where Asobo started. The flight model, as so many forget, was copied from FSX and re-written into The World. I don't know if that was because it was "good enough"...

Or if, as I suspect, that The World is going to get diversified into other offerings at some point.

AND it's going to get dragged INTO the commercial/military space as well (and as I've said, I'd be shocked if it isn't already being used in unofficial/edge cases).

In that regards, everyone's paying attention to what Lockheed Martin and a couple of other new players are doing in the Mil space.

They're penny-ante compared to the resources MS will invest to take that biz away. And arguably, they're already closer to that than LM & the others are.