So you may remember that MSFS was the primary flight simulator used by 70.8% of Navigraph survey takers, for the most recent Navigraph survey (page 52 of the Navigraph survey). And you may also remember in the most recent Navigraph survey, 2.6% were primarily using X-Box for their flight simulator (page 43 of the Navigraph survey).  And of course, as per Navigraph own words, "the survey’s primary objective within the flight simulation community is to equip participating partners with in-depth insights."

So I think the 70.8% share for MSFS is a lot lower than it is, based on new information from Jorg.  As per what Jorg said in the recent June development Q&A, the breakdown for PC/X-Box users of MSFS is about 60%/40%, or 50%/50%: https://youtu.be/cj4e1FhDhBE?si=z1D53kenXwYb-Mqu&t=2496.  Let's be charitable and say XBox users account for 40% of MSFS (rather than the higher 50%).  If the Navigraph survey is only reporting that 2.6% of survey takers were primarily using X-Box, and MSFS is already the primary flight simulator used by 70.8% of Navigraph survey takers, then I think the 2.6% figure is way to low, given the new information from Jorg.

Thus, I think Navigraph is somehow missing a lot of XBox users. Which means Navigraph is undercounting the MSFS market.  This doesn't mean that XBox users of MSFS purchase the same amount as PC users of MSFS. Simbol mentioned that about 25% to 30% of his sales come from X-Box.  But even if XBox users purchase less than PC users of MSFS, the Navigraph survey is still missing a lot of XBox users, who purchase a lot of add-ons just like PC users. In any case, that 70.8% share that MSFS has is too low - I wouldn't be surprised if the actual share is probably something like 85% or higher.

This also means if you are a 3rd party developer and your product can be potentially listed in the MSFS market for both PC and XBox, and you look at the Navigraph survey to project what your sales could be in MSFS, your sales projection could be lower than what it actually turns out to be, because of the undercounting of the MSFS market in the Navigraph survey.

 

Edited June 20, 20241 yr by abrams_tank

The Navigraph surveys don't, by any means, have the intention to point out the numbers for the market as whole. They aim the people that, at least, know who Navigraph is and are willing to participate in their survey.

What I mean is, they aim the niche within a niche. The core of the hardcore simmers. 

37 minutes ago, ca_metal said:

The Navigraph surveys don't, by any means, have the intention to point out the numbers for the market as whole. They aim the people that, at least, know who Navigraph is and are willing to participate in their survey.

I think it's probably less so an issue intent and more so an issue of not being able to effectively reach a representative share of market. I think if they had the capability to do so, they definitely would not limit themselves to targeting only a subsection of the market with the survey. If I'm not mistaken, Laminar Research was a survey partner but not Microsoft.

I would agree that Microsoft's share of the market is higher than indicated in the survey.

 

 

Edited June 20, 20241 yr by brinx

17 minutes ago, ca_metal said:

What I mean is, they aim the niche within a niche. The core of the hardcore simmers.

This.

Any survey where participants self-select is going to be biaaed. Even more so if the organization conducting and promoting the survey appeals to only a small subgroup of potential respondents.

The survey may tell you something about Navigraph users (though even there it's biased). It tells you next to nothing about flight simmers as a whole.

2 hours ago, abrams_tank said:

So you may remember that MSFS was the primary flight simulator used by 70.8% of Navigraph survey takers, for the most recent Navigraph survey (page 52 of the Navigraph survey). And you may also remember in the most recent Navigraph survey, 2.6% were primarily using X-Box for their flight simulator (page 43 of the Navigraph survey).  And of course, as per Navigraph own words, "the survey’s primary objective within the flight simulation community is to equip participating partners with in-depth insights."

So I think the 70.8% share for MSFS is a lot lower than it is, based on new information from Jorg.  As per what Jorg said in the recent June development Q&A, the breakdown for PC/X-Box users of MSFS is about 60%/40%, or 50%/50%: https://youtu.be/cj4e1FhDhBE?si=z1D53kenXwYb-Mqu&t=2496.  Let's be charitable and say XBox users account for 40% of MSFS (rather than the higher 50%).  If the Navigraph survey is only reporting that 2.6% of survey takers were primarily using X-Box, and MSFS is already the primary flight simulator used by 70.8% of Navigraph survey takers, then I think the 2.6% figure is way to low, given the new information from Jorg.

Thus, I think Navigraph is somehow missing a lot of XBox users. Which means Navigraph is undercounting the MSFS market.  This doesn't mean that XBox users of MSFS purchase the same amount as PC users of MSFS. Simbol mentioned that about 25% to 30% of his sales come from X-Box.  But even if XBox users purchase less than PC users of MSFS, the Navigraph survey is still missing a lot of XBox users, who purchase a lot of add-ons just like PC users. In any case, that 70.8% share that MSFS has is too low - I wouldn't be surprised if the actual share is probably something like 85% or higher.

This also means if you are a 3rd party developer and your product can be potentially listed in the MSFS market for both PC and XBox, and you look at the Navigraph survey to project what your sales could be in MSFS, your sales projection could be lower than what it actually turns out to be, because of the undercounting of the MSFS market in the Navigraph survey.

 

I would take all of your assumptions with a grain of salt!

Why does it even matter anyway???

1 minute ago, tpete61 said:

I would take all of your assumptions with a grain of salt!

Why does it even matter anyway???

I think his assumptions are pretty in line with what Jörg has been saying. It's up to you if you trust his (Jörg) words or not.

90% of what we discuss here don't really matter. It's just a forum to discuss anything about MSFS. The real/meaningfull changes happen elsewhere (support tickets/some areas of the official forums/etc).

A little advice, just ignore any threads you think aren't important for you. 

4 hours ago, ca_metal said:

A little advice, just ignore any threads you think aren't important for you. 

But but.. what would we ever do without tpete61's deep wisdom on whether a post is worthy or not?? his posting history seems to suggest a storied record of gatekeeping attempts on what should be posted, and insightful questioning about why something was posted. Well sure, some might also call it ranting, but I think it's adorable 🙂 
 

7 hours ago, ca_metal said:

The Navigraph surveys don't, by any means, have the intention to point out the numbers for the market as whole. They aim the people that, at least, know who Navigraph is and are willing to participate in their survey.

What I mean is, they aim the niche within a niche. The core of the hardcore simmers. 

Absolutely, Navigraph is probably the closest we have to representative polling of the "serious simmer" sect, and one that 3rd party developers of high fidelity add-ons closely watch (among various other indicators of course) to gauge the sim market for their products.
 

Edited June 21, 20241 yr by lwt1971

39 minutes ago, lwt1971 said:

Absolutely, Navigraph is probably the closest we have to representative polling of the "serious simmer" sect, and one that 3rd party developers of high fidelity add-ons closely watch to gauge the sim market for their products.
 

I agree it's the closest we have. But being the closest, doesn't mean it's accurate. I think last survey had ~50k respondents, according to Jörg MSFS alone has 3mi serious simmers (and 3mi hardcore gamers and 6mi casuals). Like @martinboehme correctly said: any survey people are self-selected (not ensuring the sample is representative of the target population) will be biased. The only way you can extrapolate this survey to the whole population would be by using cientific methods (50k users is correspondent to 0.04% of the MSFS users (12mi) and 1.6% of the serious simmers using MSFS (3mi)).

That said, I really like the Navigraph suveys, and I read them entirely and attentively. And I believe most 3rd parties use them as a guide for their upcoming projects. BUT the big devs probably use their own market research and their internal numbers primarily, because they are a lot more accurate. 

Edited June 21, 20241 yr by ca_metal

8 hours ago, abrams_tank said:

So you may remember that MSFS was the primary flight simulator used by 70.8% of Navigraph survey takers, for the most recent Navigraph survey (page 52 of the Navigraph survey). And you may also remember in the most recent Navigraph survey, 2.6% were primarily using X-Box for their flight simulator (page 43 of the Navigraph survey).  And of course, as per Navigraph own words, "the survey’s primary objective within the flight simulation community is to equip participating partners with in-depth insights."

So I think the 70.8% share for MSFS is a lot lower than it is, based on new information from Jorg.  As per what Jorg said in the recent June development Q&A, the breakdown for PC/X-Box users of MSFS is about 60%/40%, or 50%/50%: https://youtu.be/cj4e1FhDhBE?si=z1D53kenXwYb-Mqu&t=2496.  Let's be charitable and say XBox users account for 40% of MSFS (rather than the higher 50%).  If the Navigraph survey is only reporting that 2.6% of survey takers were primarily using X-Box, and MSFS is already the primary flight simulator used by 70.8% of Navigraph survey takers, then I think the 2.6% figure is way to low, given the new information from Jorg.

Thus, I think Navigraph is somehow missing a lot of XBox users. Which means Navigraph is undercounting the MSFS market.  This doesn't mean that XBox users of MSFS purchase the same amount as PC users of MSFS. Simbol mentioned that about 25% to 30% of his sales come from X-Box.  But even if XBox users purchase less than PC users of MSFS, the Navigraph survey is still missing a lot of XBox users, who purchase a lot of add-ons just like PC users. In any case, that 70.8% share that MSFS has is too low - I wouldn't be surprised if the actual share is probably something like 85% or higher.

This also means if you are a 3rd party developer and your product can be potentially listed in the MSFS market for both PC and XBox, and you look at the Navigraph survey to project what your sales could be in MSFS, your sales projection could be lower than what it actually turns out to be, because of the undercounting of the MSFS market in the Navigraph survey.

 

This isn't news.

We've long known that the Navigraph survey isn't a statistically representative sample of flight sim users. In fact, Navigraph themselves explain this very subject in the published results.

From my understanding, Navigraph also works on XBox. While there are users of Navigraph who own a PC and XBox, and may use Navigraph on both, I assume there are also people who only own an XBox and are using Navigraph.  Somehow, Navigraph is unable to capture enough of those respondents in their survey, I guess?

I doubt whether most XBox users will even know about a Navigraph survey

1 hour ago, abrams_tank said:

From my understanding, Navigraph also works on XBox. While there are users of Navigraph who own a PC and XBox, and may use Navigraph on both, I assume there are also people who only own an XBox and are using Navigraph.

I'm sure these people exist, but in general, there's a big overlap between the following groups: a) People who have heard of Navigraph (never mind use it), b) "serious simmers", c) people who sim exclusively on PC (because some of the things we want to do don't work on Xbox, plus we're obsessed with FPS and maximizing graphical detail). (And, oh by the way, d) Avsim forum members.) So I'm not surprised that Xbox users are drastically underrepresented in the Navigraph survey.

MS just needs to add a Chart service so that this corrupt company can be Deprecated.

36 minutes ago, Greazer said:

MS just needs to add a Chart service so that this corrupt company can be Deprecated.

Seriously?

who is forcing you to use their services?

You can find charts on the net if you want to. They are not a monopoly but they offer much more than just the charts. Not worth your while? - don’t buy..

Edited June 21, 20241 yr by ha5mvo