Some observations; Book 1, Volume 0! :P

 

1) Numbers

 

Accepting the numbers given for Sales of all flight related products, one might wonder how much of that is going to "serious" simulation of the civilian type. My gut instinct is "not very much" as a percentage of the whole. Simply put, if the market was financially attractive, more players would be trying for a slice. Yet for years, FSX and X-plane have duked it out with no significant competition except from games with a military bent. One might spend some time contemplating that fact and its causes.

 

http://www.vgchartz....ight-simulator/

 

Assuming Any validity to the above listing, Flightsimulator in its various iterations has sold millions of copys. Yet where are all those people?! The fact is that most of them likely fiddled with it for a while and then put it away. There was a thread here once from sombody posting a study, and the conclusion from that, and from most anecdotal evidence was boredom. People found it just too complicated and time consuming, and still do! In the wider world, just the word simulator has taken on negative connotations of boredom, and that was one of the reasons given for its removal from Flight.

 

2) Growth

 

Given the above, how do you grow the hobby and retain customers and interest? Its apparent that much of the sophistication and systems management that holds the attention of those whose interest was high enough to make them remain active (when so many others turned away) is part of exactly what caused those others to turn away in the first place.

 

As that strain of the hobby has become dominant, the barriers to entry to others with a more casual level of interest has become higher and higher, particularly as the necessity of learning not just the sim itself, but the internal functions of the sim have become necessary to keep it running acceptably; adding even further to the initial complexity, and tp the barriers to entry for all but the most determined.

 

Further, vanilla FSX (as the most obvious example) is hardly palatable visually to the modern purchaser (think pong) and it will quickly be dropped, unless that purchaser is

 

(a)one of those to whom the initial interest is so high that they will persevere no matter what, or

 

(b)They become aware of the add-on market, learn to negotiate it successfully (not as easy as some believe) and are interested enough to pay the extant prices. (also not a given where $15 dollar DLC is an issue of contention) Its a matter of perceived value, and that question is already partially answered by the millions who have already removed themselves from the equation. Purchasing a sim is one thing, staying with it for any great lenght of time is completely another, and civilian aviation appears to have a dismal retention rate.

 

Finding out not only why that is and actually addressing it (rather than simply commenting on the shallowness of modern consumers) should be a major concern, as we are already a very tiny niche within a tiny niche, and I don't see that changing without an attempt to be more accessible to a wider variety of gaming types and styles. The "Serious" as opposed to "Gamer" stereotype is not helpful in that regard. A well known saying is that "We should hang together, or we most assuredly all hang separately."

 

3) Financial

 

Sims are incredibly expensive to make, and sims of the type most valued by this community are more expensive still. The numbers don't really seem to add up for a large company, who probably can think of a plethora of simpler things to do that would garner much greater financial reward. (like angry birds, for instance) Companies that enter this marketspace now, tend to be small, and because of some of the reasons mentioned above, with few exceptions these concentrate their efforts on the safer military side of the equation. These small companies find a way to stay funded by living off of margins not of interest to larger players, and due to that lack of capitol, the evolution of their products is often glacially slow.

 

Again, an infusion of larger numbers of consumers is the obvious answer, but how to draw in what is likely to be, at least at first, a much more casual crowd, and retain them, without earning the ire of the entrenched technical core of the current community? It seems an impasse, and one not to be broken soon. In the meantime, options such as Prepare3d and others seem able to allow the current community to continue for some time, but only with offerings that do little to answer the question of broader appeal and retention. Meanwhile the wider market is evolving in ways less open to programs with large learning curves and no friendlier front end.

 

 

4) Final thoughts

 

It seems clear that the current situation can continue for some years to come; yet market forces are not necessarily favorable beyond churn within the niche itself. The unexpected can always happen (that's why its unexpected!) but I see small likelihood of any major player stepping up to the plate in the foreseeable future, especially after recent events. If one were to do so, they would likely see the same trends and issues that helped cause Microsoft to alter its own focus, and would probably produce something only peripherally palatable to the current community.

 

Illustrative of that is the fact that there are several flying games currently just released or in development, but few of those that I am aware of offer anything even close to what this community considers to be a "true" sim; and all are military based. The reasons for that are many, and some are mentioned above. Interestingly, Cliffs of Dover has an expandable engine I am told, but it has fallen beneath the radar in many ways. Perhaps people will take another look eventually, but the issue is, as always money and time.

 

Aerofly has a lot of promise, but due to the size of the market and Aeroflys current casual focus, it too is generally beneath the radar, and again, money for development is an issue that tends to slow progress. Microsoft's huge pockets are sorely missed at least in this regard. X-plane remains, of course, and is as always the "heir apparent"

 

I don't doubt for an instant doubt its continued success within this niche. Its focus on technical elements, however, takes it even further beyond the pale as far as accessibility to a broader base of players, and in that, it matches its forebears on the issues of growth (beyond niche churn) and retention. Its informative that it was the much simplified "tablet" version of the sim that appears to have brought in welcome money to help underwrite the development of the version most favored here.

 

It should tell us something, but I am not sure the message is welcome. All I can say is that for me, the question is not of now, or even of the next 3 or 4 years. Its the issues of fragmentation, and complexity, and its impacts on accessibility and the attraction of new users.

 

We can continue the status quo for quite some time, I think. But as has been mentioned, our user demographic tends to slew to the older side of the spectrum, and, like some priesthoods, we seem slow in gaining new converts. Unless that changes, and like it our not, flight brought a flood of new people (which is itself informative) I feel we are on a maintainence path, and maintainence is not growth, especially with piracy eating away at what thin margins there are.

 

Terminal decline? Probably not. The right path for a bright long term future? Not yet.

Thanks for the cogent and informative post, Devon! You have very neatly phrased the situation as it exists today.

Excellent analysis HighFlyer. To give some hope, we could perhaps look at train simulation where Railworks seem to be doing OK (as far as I can tell as a non-train simmer). The rise of digital distribution has made it a lot more doable for smaller companies to serve niche markets, so hopefully the same can happen for flight simming.

also pc's with gpu's equipped ( gaming pc's ) out sold consoles 7:1 in 2011

 

 

 

Nearly every computer a consumer will buy has GPU's in them. To call them all gaming PC's is absurd. Even if they were all used for gaming, computers have to be continuously upgraded every few years at double or sometimes quadruple the cost of a console. That means they are not all new consumers coming into the market. A console lasts 6 years and is still providing amazing gaming ability. Try that with your 6 year old computer and the newest games available. The market for the console has reached saturation were people don't have to buy new systems, but they are still buying new games which is what our discussion is focusing on.

pc sales are split in to 3 groups, one is higher end gpu based computers and the other is lower end pc's ( Casual PC's ) and commercial and the casual type out sold gaming pc's.

 

But you are right but in my opinion the pc market is saturated as well with cheap pre built pc's but as long as people are buying new pc's and consoles the demand for new games will always be there and a small percentage of them will find some type of flight sim even if most who find it will leave in the first year.

 

@ John

I have Railworks 3 and the graphics quality is quite poor and im glad it only cost a couple of pounds in a steam sale ages ago. The ground terrain is equal to fsx and there is no ground smoothing to remove the jagged edges and it does not do curves very well on the tracks so bends are just straight lines at different angles :(

 

With the others i think Devon has hit the mark with the state of simming today.

I agree.....Great post Devon.

 

 

I am curious to what people have in their households today. We have:

 

1 Desktop Computer for my FSX

3 Laptops

1 Ipad

1 IPhone

 

So that is 6 computers in my household. If I wasn't into Flight Sim then that Desktop wouldn't be there and most likely a game console instead. I think most households don't have a desktop anymore (outside of our community) and if they do it would get the least amount of use compared to portable computing.

We have

 

2 laptops (1 business and for my commuting, 1 for general browsing)

1 iPad

1 iPhone

1 Android

1 PS3 for gaming, Netflix and Hulu.

 

The PS3 is on nearly all the time the TV is on. Only the Olympics has increased watching programmed television.

The burning question remains:

 

Are there enough flight simulation enthusiasts left to warrant the continued commercial development of desktop flight simulators?

 

For the big publishers the answer is no. There's bigger fish to fry and more money to be had in more mainstream entertainment titles.

 

For smaller independant developers and publishers the answer is most definitely yes.

 

The future lies with smaller outfits like Laminar Research, Eagle Dynamics and 777 Studios - more often than not selling their products direct to the consumer via digital distribution. Such developers know their market and don't have to worry about where they fit in to the bigger corporate picture. They don't have to justify continued investment in their niche title versus the latest Call of Duty clone that sells millions of copies. For our part we have to make sure we support these guys so they continue to develop the stuff we want.

 

FSX will continue to be the civilian sim with the largest user base and largest addon market for some time to come I think. However, X-Plane is rapidly gathering momentum and I think will one day eclipse FSX. As far as Prepar3d goes I *hope* it turns into something special, but I remain to be convinced why a corporation such as Lockheed Martin - who regularly deal in contracts worth tens of billions - would be at all interested in selling a desktop flight simulation with a revenue stream that wouldn't even register on their radar.

 

For those of us who enjoy combat flight sims I think Eagle Dynamics are on the cusp of realising the dream so many have tried (and failed) in the past to create - a base platform upon which various "modules" (i.e. aircraft, tanks, ships, etc) can be added. The newly released DCS World might very well be the biggest thing to happen in the world of combat flight sims for many long years. Likewise I am most interested to see what 777 Studios does to build on the success of Rise of Flight. However, this is tempered by the utter mess Maddox Games made of Il-2 Cliffs of Dover - whether or not they recover from the debacle remains to be seen, but my hope is slowly starting to fade. The once very promising Strike Fighters series from ThirdWire is also being taken down a bad road by the developer, who is apparently turning away from the community and slowly locking down more and more of the sim which has thrived on third party mods, whilst simultaneously ramping up the release of his own DLC via the ThirdWire online store.

 

Interesting times ahead I think.

I am curious to what people have in their households today.

 

I have,

 

3 desktop pc's - 2 are dx11 and 1 is dx10 capable with plans to add a 4th pc.

1 laptop - only good for surfing the net and youtube

3 consoles - 2 wii consoles and a ps2, all are used

1 10.1" android tablet

2 android phones

1 BT Vision box, on demand internet based tv and films for those who dont know what it is.

 

Also have Netflix which is hooked up to just about everything :)

For the big publishers the answer is no. There's bigger fish to fry and more money to be had in more mainstream entertainment titles.

 

I agree, but you make it sound like a picnic :)

I'd say the situation is more desperate...

2 functional desktops here, 1 for gaming (plus other graphic-intensive stuff), 1 for general use. Several others junked out in the shed awaiting appropriate dumping.

 

1 undistinguished laptop.

 

No smartphones of any description, or consoles.

 

Mind you, I buy recycled office desktops and upgrade them, so it's a cheapish hobby, all in all.

Want to see where the money and numbers in flight related releases is going right now? Want to know where the well funded teams, high production values and next gen graphics are? Look up:

 

World of Warplanes http://na.worldofwarplanes.com/ A flight MMO complete with DLC

 

War Thunder/World of Planes http://warthunder.com/

 

There are more out there, but zero civilian ones, and little that would interest this segment. This is where potential future simmers might well spend their time unless at least some of them can be enticed in this direction as well. Flight tried to carve out a civilian niche with this reality as a backdrop and failed. Any new contestants?

 

 

http://youtu.be/1LEQ_1Kt0Cs

Back in the dim dark time known as the 80's, there were an incredible amount of flightsims, from all the Microprose titles, Solo Flight, even a weird little game called Flight Simulator. For a lot of the 'older' (I like to think I'm more mature :P ) flightsimmers today, this was the time they got hooked on simming. A lot have left, but seemed to gravitate back after a couple of years once life has a bit more free time.

 

These days, many younger gamers will never have the same introduction to simming as we once did. Shooters rule the roost today, and once you get bored with one, another kicks down the wall to take it's place. Could you imagine a shooter game having the same longevity as MSFS? It'll never happen.

 

There will always be a corner of the gamer market for simmers, but to say the glory days of simming are today obviously never played sims in the 80s or early 90s. The sims themselves may be better (that's a no brainer; if you sent back a nicely added-on FSX to 1990 people would be amazed), but the ratio of simmers to gamers has declined since the mid 90s. Once was a time where most people had at least one flightsim in their collection, even if it was say, Microprose's Gunship! (a great little title, I thrashed that for 5 years!). These days, flightsimmers (us 'hard-core' types) are the weirdo nerds of the gaming world.

 

We won't die out, but we'll never rule the world as we once did. And that's never going to change.

 

Cheers, SLuggy

I think the thing that may be in terminal decline is the desktop computer. Everything is moving to laptop / tablet / smartphone.

 

Unfortunately, a laptop isn't the best platform for simming or graphics-intensive games in general. Maybe the industry will start providing laptops with better graphics cards as the desktop market dries up and demand for better performance out of laptops increases.

 

After FS2004, I remember how disheartened many of us were that Microsoft announced first that the Flight Simulator line would move to Vista-only, and the next version would not run on XP. As it turned out, FSX ended up outliving Vista as a product.

Don't panic, they can't even make enough parts for increasing demands...