I would say the chances are less than 25% that anyone will walk (or crawl) away from such a situation and probably less than 10% that the aeroplane will live to fly another day.

I understand what you are saying, and based on your figures, would you choose to say no to Captain PC Hero Pilot taking the controls because there is a more than 75% chance of no survivors were they to take control, with a more than 90% chance of the plane being wrecked in the event, against a 100% chance of no survivors and the plane being wrecked if Captain Nutter and his crew remain in control?

 

To be clear, the choice here is between certain disaster and highly probable disaster.

Patronising much?

It's not really patronising. It's general commentary on the probability of success in a given scenario. I consider myself to be a fairly experienced PMDG flyer, and generally a level headed individual, but I honestly cannot say whether I'd be able to handle that situation. Let's be honest, we all like to think we can handle that situation, but consider carefully what Francois has proposed. You're in a hijack scenario, staring death in the face - and now you are called upon to save the day with your PC flightsim experience. Yeah, that's every flightsimmer's fantasy. But the reality would be very different.

To be clear, the choice here is between certain disaster and highly probable disaster.

Well, if I was in that situation, I would be the PC hero. :smile:

 

Clearly I would have to go with whatever chance of survival was greater

I consider myself to be a fairly experinced PMDG flyer, but I honestly cannot say whether I'd be able to handle that situation. ... Yeah, that's every flightsimmer's fantasy.   But the reality would be very different.

 

I also consider myself a fairly experienced PMDG 737 pilot, but it's definitely NOT my fantasy ... I've seen enough of my landings to know that I never want to be in a situation like that. But if it's a choice between taking THAT risk, or dying in any case, I'd take the risk. I would be under no illusions as to the probable outcome, but if it saves 1 person out of 140, that's already a better outcome than taking no chance at all.

 

So the question remains, should Captain PC Hero Pilot try, or not?

So the question remains, should Captain PC Hero Pilot try, or not?

In the absence of anyone else, what other chance do you have?

 

 

Every person I've seen take the controls of an aeroplane for the first time, feels completely out of their comfort zone. Even under controlled conditions where an instructor is available and the situation is benign, an individual's first reaction is to become quite nervous - even flightsim pilots - and this is in a C172.

 

Now you're asking a person in a 737 after a hijack scenario to stabilise the aircraft, contact ATC, navigate to a suitable airfield and execute the landing - after only 5 minutes before he was reading his PC Pilot magazine in seat 4A. I don't think the chances are that great in reality.

 

. 

I don't think the chances are that great in reality.

 

Again, I'm not disputing your assessment of the likely outcome, I'm asking whether, knowing the likely outcome, people would conclude that there is no point in even taking the chance. In short, is the agreement that a person with 1000 hours + on the PMDG 737 will have no better chance of getting a better outcome in the above scenario than someone who views simulators as only slightly better than watching paint dry, and as such, they shouldn't even try at all.

.

 

Are we keeping you from doing something more important?

Only if you are a gliderpilot

In short, is the agreement that a person with 1000 hours + on the PMDG 737 will have no better chance of getting a better outcome in the above scenario than someone who views simulators as only slightly better than watching paint dry, and as such, they shouldn't even try at all.

 

If the right person with 1000 hours was there, sure.  Probably a slim chance.  Perhaps even better.

 

If just anyone with 1000 hours was there.  No, probably no chance. In many cases,  it is the psychology of the situation which would defeat them.

 

In hypothetical scenario's,  people's egos tend to far exceed their ability. ('watch this, hold my beer....').  

If the right

 

In hypothetical scenario's,  people's egos tend to far exceed their ability. ('watch this, hold my beer....').

 

Well, not just in hypothetical scenarios. The same mental processes which lead people to over estimate their abilities during hypothetical scenarios are also active under every day practical conditions.

 

So, to the question, could they, you say someone might, but most won't. To the question, should they try nonetheless, you would say, yes, given that it is a last resort?

 

 

To the question, should they try nonetheless, you would say, yes, given that it is a last resort?

 

Of course they should try if there was no-one else.  But I believe the OP's question was more about whether a 'proficient' PMDG  pilot could manage the real thing if called to do so.

Only if you are a gliderpilot

I hear you!  

 

.......stabilise the aircraft, contact ATC, navigate to a suitable airfield and execute the landing ......

 

Assuming ATC could be contacted and the aircraft is already under autopilot control (let's not discuss stabilising an out of control airliner for now!), then with all due respect Erich, wouldn't ATC and people on the ground talk the wannabee pilot down - he/she would not have to navigate to a suitable airfield or try and land without outside help? However, do authorities even consider training for such an event in this day & age I wonder? (Can I volunteer to fly the sim for such a training exercise?? )

Supposing two people put their hands up as it were. And only one could be chosen. One was a full time simmer with no experience of real flying. And who's favourite plane was the one he was travelling on. The other a pilot of 40 years and an examiner for the local Civil Aviation authority but with little experience of that type. Who do you think the passengers and cabin crew would feel more comfortable with their destiny?

Who do you think the passengers and cabin crew would feel more comfortable with their destiny?

That question answers itself, and there would not even be a discussion about it. The scenario I'm wondering about is one in which the option of a pilot, even one with limited experience, is not available.

 

Let's say your choice is between a guy like Erich here, and someone who has no flying or simming experience at all, who would be the choice then? If the choice is Erich, or any other PMDG NGX simmer, over the other brave volunteer, what is that decision based on?

 

Bearing in mind that the outcome is not going to be anything approaching the outcome had a type rated pilot been the volunteer, so we accept the inherent risk involved.

Of course they should try if there was no-one else.  But I believe the OP's question was more about whether a 'proficient' PMDG  pilot could manage the real thing if called to do so.

Yes, but this hijacking scenario is, as unlikely as it is, the most likely scenario during which this fantasy of the proficient PMDG pilot being called upon to take control could be played out. I think it falls within the scope of the original question. It also takes into consideration all of the objections raised without discounting the risk and starts from the assumption that it is not going to be a great result. Starting from there, I ask whether, if our lives depended on it, we would have more* faith in a proficient PMDG pilot than we would in someone who is neither a pilot, nor a proficient PMDG simmer.

 

*More being relative.

 

 

wouldn't ATC and people on the ground talk the wannabee pilot down -

 

I certainly hope that would be the case.  He'll need all the help he can get.

 

 

 

Let's say your choice is between a guy like Erich here, and someone who has no flying or simming experience at all, who would be the choice then? If the choice is Erich, or any other PMDG NGX simmer,

 

This is unnecessarily splitting hairs, but I don' think people will be arguing about who is going to fly.  The more likely scenario is that whomever feels that they could help in the absence of any trained person, will more than likely step forward.  Generally, people will feel comfortable with any confident person taking the lead in that situation - because that's exactly what they'll be looking for.  

Letting Otto do the job because you have sim experience is one thing, actually hand flying is quite another. Do NOT confuse the one with the other... :Shame On You: