If I were to bet, I'd say that x-plane 11 will take the lead. It packs all the features that we have been requesting. It's 64 bit, and the developers have been at it for many years, totally devoted to giving us a nice niche simulator.  The one to watch is FS2. It's smart,innovative, incorporating great technology, but needs time to grow--as with many sims before it have done.

 

Lockeed Martin is for the military, so it's using us only to get good feedback only. Yes, they are improving it, but the engine is the same and the upkeep for us is just too time consuming and sometimes very frustrating.

 

XP11 is clearly setting a new standard: the default airplanes are great, the set up is easy, and it's complete out of the box---well almost, but this "almost" is a lot closer to complete than its competitors. After installation, the program was almost ready to go--no tweaks or add install contortions.

tony

Good hunch, I agree. JJ

I disagree. For that shift to happen X-Plane needs to have the same feature list as the producst based on Microsoft's ESP. As of now it still lags behind in area's such as seasonal changes and weather.

As long as people have to give up features to gain the advantages of X-Plane, it will never be market leader.

 

 

it's complete out of the box

 

It's not even close to complete out of the box, please stop with this nonsense.

There are no seasons, the weather system is very poor, the ATC is very poor to the point of being unusable, the Ai systems design is useless.

 

Most screen shots are at night for a reason, in the daytime it looks a lot less convincing, if the Xplane fans post daytime shots they are nearly always in the mountains because on flat terrain the textures look terrible as does the autogen.

As someone actually using the full beta version of X-Plane 11 I agree, I think it will take the lead and very soon. Judging by the reaction of the many FSX/P3D users that have actually tried it, there seems to be a very large majority who have said they will embrace the platform. That doesn't mean they will abandon the 32 bit platforms but with a greatly increasing market share, ESP developers will have to look at the Laminar product as the future.

I think crunch day will come when and if P3D changes to 64 bit.  Most of the developers seem to have said that the upgrade to this will be paid (Orbx especially)

As such many will rethink their investment and retain the 32 bit version but switch to X plane for 64 bit future and new purchases will go there.  That is what I am doing now.

XP has potential.  But, it's had potential for a long time.  It's definitely better in the lighting and scenery categories.  But, the biggest disadvantage it has for me is weather!!!  Until they improve in this area, I can't see it over taking ESP sims.  In my opinion, P3D will make it to 64-bit long before XP over takes P3D.  When that happens, the only advantage XP will have then is the lighting system.  Will that be enough to propel it above the ESP platform still??

I think X-Plane is still another 2 years away from taking the lead. I have seen a strong focus on attracting the airliner crowd from their marketing materials. I guess if P3D remains 32 bit then at some point X-Plane will naturally take over as long as it continues to be developed. 

 

 

If I were to bet, I'd say that x-plane 11 will take the lead.

 

That's what they said about X-Plane 10.... (and XP9, and XP8...)

 

Just like with all it's predecessors, I think X-Plane 11 is Laminar Research's best opportunity yet for bringing on some new users, but I would caution folks from thinking it will take over the marketplace and become the ecosystem of choice for the vast majority of simmers in the near term.

 

The MSFS-based ecosystem of FSX and P3D is very much entrenched, and old habits die really hard. Content is king. 

 

And let's also not forget additional competition - Dovetail's offering will also be in the mix soon too. Granted, there are more questions than answers as it relates to that platform at this point, but it could further dilute the impact that XP11 may have.

 

It all remains to be seen...

Have recently gotten back into flight simming after a break of a few years I'm just glad that we now have some serious choices and that are hobby is not in danger of dying out.

 

We are in a very niche market and while we are passionate about our hobby I suspect our numbers are not huge when compared to the larger "gaming" community (and before you jump on me I don't consider flight simming a game :-) )

 

I just hope there is a younger generation following behind us oldies to keep this very enjoyable hobby alive.

 

Kind regards,