3 hours ago, Cpt_Piett said:

I’m also wondering how many will stay on 2020

nobody. wait till the first feedback from early (day-1 hour-1 minute-1) adopters here shows up.

15 minutes ago, Tuskin38 said:

Those who can't afford the new sim day 1? Or people who are happy with everything they have in 2020.

There's still people out there that fly FS2004 because they have everything as they like it.

My guess is Jörg opted to have a smooth transition (better for the third party developers and users), rather than forcing everybody to adopt the new sim faster, whoever wants to stick will have four years to move. I still predict the adoption/transition to 2024 will be faster than 2020, unless the sim releases very broken.

Times have changed the way players buy games since FS2004, yearly new releases are common whereby the older product gradually gets ignored, the need to have something new is stronger than it was 20 years ago, this franchise today clearly appeals to more than just the "hardcore" minority and then factor in PCs in general terms are more stable in CPU & GPU release cycles than 20 years ago (meaning you don't have to upgrade components every other month to keep up!). All that (and more as previously mentioned) points to people moving on much quicker than they would've done in the past.

I think what will happen it's that MSFS2024 uptake will drastically change their thinking towards supporting MSFS2020, the current 4 year support may well drop entirely if by the end of next year only a handful remain on the "old" title. I mean why would you waste resources, time & money on an older product when the new product is played by so many more? It just doesn't make sense, especially when they're trying to push the technology further to obviously create a Digital Twin capable of much more than just a Flight Simulator, they have already started to appeal to a wider audience (Xbox) and with MSFS2024 comes the time to start to speak to the wider gaming community and say "hey, we're not only about aeroplanes here". 

I just feel it's a waste of time already but that's why I also fear that MSFS2024 may well be a buggy mess as they've got the current Sim to fall back on, their history of ill released updates points to this. "Hey don't worry we'll get MSFS2024 to a decent stable state in a couple of years" and that is why MSFS2020 has support until 2028, they have that safety net.

(For the record I of course hope that the release is decent and free from similar issues we've already had with this current Sim, time will tell.)

Edited August 19, 20241 yr by MarcG

I don't remember what they've said about specifics, but I assume 2020 updates will be mostly scenery stuff (which they're doing for 2024 anyway, and likely won't really create much/any extra work) and the occasional bug fixes or things they can just port back from what they're already doing in 2024. I'm guessing they're looking at it as minimal work and an extra source of income if there are still people active in the marketplace. 

That said, I'd also be willing to bet if the work outpaces the income that support will drop very, very quickly regardless of stated timelines. 

2 minutes ago, Dermot McClusky said:

I don't remember what they've said about specifics,

Both sims will get the same world updates, though 2024's will look better. 2020 will be supported until 2028.

And as you said some stuff will be backported to 2020 if possible.

23 minutes ago, MarcG said:

All that (and more as previously mentioned) points to people moving on much quicker than they would've done in the past.

Have they confirmed, that market place addons bought for MSFS 2020 will be available for free in MSFS 2024 too? Otherwise having invested into a large number of payware as sunk cost might be a reason why a larger group of users would not want to use the new sim.

30 minutes ago, MarcG said:

Times have changed the way players buy games since FS2004, yearly new releases are common whereby the older product gradually gets ignored, the need to have something new is stronger than it was 20 years ago, this franchise today clearly appeals to more than just the "hardcore" minority and then factor in PCs in general terms are more stable in CPU & GPU release cycles than 20 years ago (meaning you don't have to upgrade components every other month to keep up!). All that (and more as previously mentioned) points to people moving on much quicker than they would've done in the past.

I think what will happen it's that MSFS2024 uptake will drastically change their thinking towards supporting MSFS2020, the current 4 year support may well drop entirely if by the end of next year only a handful remain on the "old" title. I mean why would you waste resources, time & money on an older product when the new product is played by so many more? It just doesn't make sense, especially when they're trying to push the technology further to obviously create a Digital Twin capable of much more than just a Flight Simulator, they have already started to appeal to a wider audience (Xbox) and with MSFS2024 comes the time to start to speak to the wider gaming community and say "hey, we're not only about aeroplanes here". 

I just feel it's a waste of time already but that's why I also fear that MSFS2024 may well be a buggy mess as they've got the current Sim to fall back on, their history of ill released updates points to this. "Hey don't worry we'll get MSFS2024 to a decent stable state in a couple of years" and that is why MSFS2020 has support until 2028, they have that safety net.

(For the record I of course hope that the release is decent and free from similar issues we've already had with this current Sim, time will tell.)

I can see them advancing the date if the 2020 user base drops really fast. I agree it's a waster of time and resources, but it's a good PR move. I'm a hardcore gamer and hardcore simmer, and I've seen users bashing developers for ending support of games without announcing it first. Giving the users time to deal with it is always good. Also, like I said above, don't kill the 3rd party business for months (drying the sales).

10 minutes ago, fsiscool said:

Have they confirmed, that market place addons bought for MSFS 2020 will be available for free in MSFS 2024 too? Otherwise having invested into a large number of payware as sunk cost might be a reason why a larger group of users would not want to use the new sim.

I'm not sure, but if they are that'll be another reason not to hang around on the old Sim!

13 minutes ago, fsiscool said:

Have they confirmed, that market place addons bought for MSFS 2020 will be available for free in MSFS 2024 too? Otherwise having invested into a large number of payware as sunk cost might be a reason why a larger group of users would not want to use the new sim.

They have confirmed all add-ons purchased through marketplace will be ported to 2024 and will be available to whoever bought them for 2020. BUT, some of the add-ons might need fixes, and it's up to the 3rd party developer to fix them and they can choose to charge or not for the fixes. From their Q&A:

 

Frequently Asked Questions

Will Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024 be a completely standalone sequel, or will it also be offered as a paid update for existing players? 

Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024 is a standalone simulator and the next-generation sequel to Microsoft Flight Simulator that launched in 2020. Current aircraft and airports that are in Microsoft Flight Simulator (2020), as well as virtually all Marketplace add-ons, will be supported in Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024.

Will all purchases users have made from the Marketplace be transferrable to the new simulator?

With very few exceptions, virtually all add-ons that work in Microsoft Flight Simulator (2020) today will function in Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024. Add-ons that were purchased from the in-simulator Marketplace will not need to be re-purchased in Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024.

Owned MSFS 2020 Content

For any content you purchased outside of the simulator, the Community Folder will continue to work as it did in MSFS 2020. Any content in your MSFS 2020 Community Folder can simply be copied over to the new MSFS 2024 Community Folder, and the vast majority of that content should work in MSFS 2024.
For any content you purchased in the Marketplace in MSFS 2020, that content will show up as owned in the Content Manager (in MSFS 2024 called “My Library”) at launch for you to use in MSFS 2024, and the vast majority of that content should work in MSFS 2024. This availability does not require developers to sign off on their content.
Owned MSFS 2020 Content that has been Upgraded* for MSFS 2024

For content you already purchased in MSFS 2020, upgrades to Microsoft-produced content (e.g. Reno Air Races, Local Legends, Famous Flyers, Expert Series) will be free to you.
For content you already purchased in MSFS 2020, upgrades to all other (non-Microsoft) developers’ content will have two potential options based on each developer’s discretion:
The developer can make the upgrade free.
The developer can choose to charge a fee for the upgrade.
 Non-owned Content: Availability in the MSFS 2024 Marketplace

For any content, including existing MSFS 2020 content, developers must sign off that the content is functional for it to appear for sale in the Marketplace.
*Upgraded = built with the MSFS 2024 SDK, Not Upgraded = built with the MSFS 2020 SDK

 

Edited August 19, 20241 yr by ca_metal

Another angle; with more reliance on the Cloud infrastructure maybe they don't have full confidence in it until that improves over time, just look at the number of various server related issues this calendar year, it doesn't bode well for a sim that will rely more heavily on servers than it's predecessor. Again leaving the older Sim to fall back on until a time whereby the Cloud & Servers can be relied upon and trusted more heavily.

Edited August 19, 20241 yr by MarcG

10 minutes ago, MarcG said:

Another angle; with more reliance on the Cloud infrastructure maybe they don't have full confidence in it until that improves over time, just look at the number of various server related issues this calendar year, it doesn't bode well for a sim that will rely more heavily on servers than it's predecessor. Again leaving the older Sim to fall back on until a time whereby the Cloud & Servers can be relied upon and trusted more heavily.

It could be, but I don't really think that's the case. We will be able to test it a few weeks before the release, just to stress test the cloud (Acc to Jörg), and cloud power is very modular, you can add power whenever you need (there's a cost  of course).

The outages this year were not related to insufficient infrastructure, some of them were related to DDoS attacks, others related to bad updates to their anti-virus softwares etc. Outages can and probably will happen, but that's not a good reason to keep MSFS 2020 supported (2020 will also be affected by outages).

Edited August 19, 20241 yr by ca_metal

@ca_metal,

What about stuff bought using 3rd party installers like Orbx direct? 

Edited August 19, 20241 yr by Ray Proudfoot
Long quoted post removed.

20 minutes ago, MarcG said:

Another angle; with more reliance on the Cloud infrastructure maybe they don't have full confidence in it until that improves over time, just look at the number of various server related issues this calendar year, it doesn't bode well for a sim that will rely more heavily on servers than it's predecessor. Again leaving the older Sim to fall back on until a time whereby the Cloud & Servers can be relied upon and trusted more heavily.

Have we learned how much more reliance?  Perhaps it's mainly shooting in the initialization data so perhaps longer local loading times, then after that it's similar to what's happening now as at that point it's streaming scenery data so what other basic components need to be cloud-dependent at that point.

How many server related issues happened, roughly?  I fly pretty much daily, 1-2 flights of 1.5-4h duration and it's truly only been a handful of times I couldn't get up in the air as per usual except for the major down that happened a couple months back or something, and that type of event has been rare in my experience.  I do recall a few weeks of frequent 'connection lost' events but almost always they self-resolved during flight.  That being said not quite trivial but also hardly show-stopping for a sim-game.

 

Edited August 19, 20241 yr by Noel

1 minute ago, hanhamreds said:

What about stuff bought using 3rd party installers like Orbx direct? 

I would think it’s the same since they all end up in the community folder.

10 minutes ago, Noel said:

Have we learned how much more reliance?  Perhaps it's mainly shooting in the initialization data so perhaps longer local loading times, then after that it's similar to what's happening now as at that point it's streaming scenery data so what other basic components need to be cloud-dependent at that point.

How many server related issues happened, roughly?  I fly pretty much daily, 1-2 flights of 1.5-4h duration and it's truly only been a handful of times I couldn't get up in the air as per usual except for the major down that happened a couple months back or something, and that type of event has been rare in my experience.  I do recall a few weeks of frequent 'connection lost' events but almost always they self-resolved during flight.  That being said not quite trivial but also hardly show-stopping for a sim-game.

 

No idea on the first question, guess we'll find out more in the coming months. 

Server issues this year there's been far more major outages with many more minor ones than in previous years, the minor ones affecting different users in different countries it seems. The evidence is all there and yes just because you haven't been affected doesn't mean to say they didn't happen 😉