Sure, this is when we will find out the whole story.But we can also tell a lot by what will be happening in the coming days, not months.Judging by past accidents if there is a hint of equipment fault, within days of getting to the data civil aviation authorities order inspections, parts replacement or even ground whole fleets. You get such actions way before final or even interim reports. Lack of such actions is in itself quite informative.

Good way of putting it.Airbus had sent out a circular advising (stressing but not mandatory) replacement of the pitot systems before the accident. All US operators of the Airbus(es) with the afflicting pitot systems have been replacing them with Goodrich systems made in the US since before the crash.

This is a forum. A place for discussion. I actually have the definition saved in a notepad file for comments like "Let the experts find out" or "what do you know?". Want to read it? :( fo·rum/ˈfôrəm/Noun1. A meeting or medium where ideas and views on a particular issue can be exchanged. :Nerd:2. An Internet message board.

And here are Avsim's forums rules:http://forum.avsim.net/index.php?app=forums&module=extras&section=boardrules :(

Why do you keep saying that? What real world experience do you have that makes you believe flying a Heavy jet near coffin corner at night in severe turbulence after the automatics have just dumped the aircraft into direct law is as simple as set N1 and maintain pitch? It is extremely stressful in the Sim, and no sim out there can recreate the actual conditions they would have dealt with.regards

First let's get thing straight.1. IT IS possible to fly without airspeed reference. I did it in my basic training and a number of times for real in a heavy!!2. I don't fly through thunderstorms per se big or small. I have however flown though severe turbulence many times and can tell you that it is normal to fly with attitude and thrust. In fact it's the best way as the airspeed needle is all over the place in rough weather. It's quite often done. Perhaps in the AF case there was too much reliance on the computer and not seat of the pants. Many pilots complain that some airlines (BA not being one of them) don't give their pilots enough retraining in basic flying.vololiberista

Good way of putting it.Airbus had sent out a circular advising (stressing but not mandatory) replacement of the pitot systems before the accident. All US operators of the Airbus(es) with the afflicting pitot systems have been replacing them with Goodrich systems made in the US since before the crash.

Well, this circular was put out before data from black boxes was accessed, it is quite possible this whole pitot tube business may have had nothing to do with this accident, I was clearly referring to actions that will follow retrieval of the data.

Have you ever tried to maintain pitch after penetrating thunderstorms topping out at 60,000+ ft? Me neither... In a crippled aircraft at that. (Direct law, Master Caution blaring, extreme turbulence, autopilot broken, airspeed broken) Things happen and believe it or not, there is still a human factor involved (regardless of some folks tendencies to claim super human piloting skills). Especially in these Airbus aircraft aimed at making flying easier for less trained pilots. :( Personally I believe the crew definitely elected to fly through a TS. A TS they thought was much less severe than what they finally (probably) encountered. The pitot system failing wasn't just a side issue, but the reason for the pilots ultimately losing control of the aircraft.Then of course there's a chance the TS itself just ripped the aircraft apart, regardless of pitot blockage...Of course I speculate. We'll know soon enough!

All excellent, very realistic points you raise. I would add in all likelyhood the pilots were not checking crew schedules on their personal laptoips at the time, and that if they did fly the path they flew it's because from their perspective at that time that was the reasonable path to fly.Recall the atlantic ITCZ, the thuderstorms there are horrific (Atlantic hurricanes are spawned.)Cheers,- jahman.

Recall the atlantic ITCZ, the thuderstorms there are horrific (Atlantic hurricanes are spawned.)

Hi Jahman,You've raised this point a couple of times and yes, the storms in this area are monsters. Some of the largest storm systems in the world are generated in this area and span all the way up to the North Atlantic.I used to live on the ocean in Nova Scotia and have seen my share of storms. Nor' Easters the most common of them (sometimes 2 or three of these a year). These ones bring winds of 180km/h hitting my house and these ones are not even hurricanes. I've had Hurricanes as well with the last one being Hurrican Juan.Cheers :D

What? Deprive all the armchair quarterbacks from beating their hairy chests and loudly pontificating their (in)expert opinions?Where's the fun in that! :(

That is true.Also, governments could save money by closing their air accident investigation units and just rely on the expert opinion expressed in this forums which atre based on media reports - we, of course,. know that the media is always reliable.

And here are Avsim's forums rules:http://forum.avsim.net/index.php?app=forums&module=extras&section=boardrules :(

Okay? I try to follow them?

Well, this circular was put out before data from black boxes was accessed, it is quite possible this whole pitot tube business may have had nothing to do with this accident, I was clearly referring to actions that will follow retrieval of the data.

I see, now. True.

That is true.Also, governments could save money by closing their air accident investigation units and just rely on the expert opinion expressed in this forums which atre based on media reports - we, of course,. know that the media is always reliable.

You forgot to mention the Conspiracy Theorists as the comments made from those people must be taken as fact as well.

I am prettly sure everyone in here has made it clear it's speculation and discussion. Good grief!

Hi Jahman,You've raised this point a couple of times and yes, the storms in this area are monsters. Some of the largest storm systems in the world are generated in this area and span all the way up to the North Atlantic.I used to live on the ocean in Nova Scotia and have seen my share of storms. Nor' Easters the most common of them (sometimes 2 or three of these a year). These ones bring winds of 180km/h hitting my house and these ones are not even hurricanes. I've had Hurricanes as well with the last one being Hurrican Juan.Cheers :D

In the movie The Shipping News I remember the house on the cliffs of Newfoundland that had cables tying it to the rocks to keep it from flying away during the storms, until a really big storm came and it flew away anyway. Is your house also on a cliff? :-)Some storms are just too much for aluminum to cope with. I remember many years back some NOAA weather aircraft was destroyed while flying accross a hurricane in the Caribbean.Cheers,- jahman.

In the movie The Shipping News I remember the house on the cliffs of Newfoundland that had cables tying it to the rocks to keep it from flying away during the storms, until a really big storm came and it flew away anyway. Is your house also on a cliff? :-)Some storms are just too much for aluminum to cope with. I remember many years back some NOAA weather aircraft was destroyed while flying accross a hurricane in the Caribbean.Cheers,- jahman.

My house was not on a cliff but a rolling hill....Shaped just like the wing of an aircraft.Therefore if the winds coming off of the ocean were around 160 km/h, the winds became 180 km/h as it passed over my house. It is the same increase in pressure as air passes over the top of a wing of an aircraft. Imagine living in a house on top of a hill with that same shape as an aircraft, and looking over the ocean.This was my home. Difference between Shipping News and my former home was my former house was built in 1973. It is a white brick bungalow designed to withstand winds of up to (and over) 240 km/h. I can say that this house has survived ever yearly storm since 1973. I have never seen a tougher house in my entire life.Another thing about this house is it overlooks Shearwater Airport, the location where they rebuilt Swissair Flight 111. From my front porch I could see those pieces from that MD-11 being brought in from the Atlantic Ocean. That was a very sad and surreal experience for me.

"Therefore if the winds coming off of the ocean were around 160 km/h, the winds became 180 km/h as it passed over my house. It is the same increase in pressure as air passes over the top of a wing of an aircraft."I'm guessing you meant to write 'decrease in pressure'?:(

"Therefore if the winds coming off of the ocean were around 160 km/h, the winds became 180 km/h as it passed over my house. It is the same increase in pressure as air passes over the top of a wing of an aircraft."I'm guessing you meant to write 'decrease in pressure'?:(

Yep..this is what I meant...One thing about that area was it didn't have any tall trees. They would blow over before getting the chance to grow big enough.Cheers :(

Black boxes seem to point towards pilot error after pitot tubes ice up and force autopilot off.Pitot tubes still suspect to triggering main event?Flying over the ocean at night, in a huge storm, with icing, and many alarms sounding can be very overwhelming. And to top things off, the senior Captain was not in the cockpit at the time emergency starts. http://abcnews.go.com/International/air-france-flight-447-black-boxes-pilot-error/story?id=13677612RJ