Malaysian Flight 370

[TU0833 4]

A crash landing in the ocean is the worst scenario we can think of at the moment. Because that simply means months of searches and less clues to gather. 

 

I'm more afraid of the disappearance remain unresolved forever.

[IUBrian 151]

Took 75 years to find Titanic with the best equipment possible and they KNEW it was in the North Atlantic... Now imagine I'd they had no idea and had to search the entire Atlantic.

 

Heck, they didn't just know it was in the North Atlantic, they had a rough latitude and longitude radioed of its position when it was sinking, so they had a relatively small area to search. Granted, for much of the time the technology to find it didn't exist, like side scan sonar and cameras that could operate 2 miles deep, but they also had an 800 foot long liner that sank in 3 large pieces trailing identifiable debris in a relatively small area, settling on a relatively flat sea floor.

[psolk 3,040]

If the purpose was to avoid radar, they would only have to do that over land, which there are only small islands in the Indian Ocean, so it wouldn't be for long durations. They can go back to cruise over the Ocean!

So they would be climbing/descending? Also, how does 5000 feet keep you under radar? Would have thought you would have to be A LOT lower than 5k feet?

[IUBrian 151]

If the purpose was to avoid radar, they would only have to do that over land, which there are only small islands in the Indian Ocean, so it wouldn't be for long durations. They can go back to cruise over the Ocean!

But wouldn't they burn a significant amount of fuel to climb again?

 

And good point, 5000 feet isn't exactly "nap of the earth" radar evading flying.

[tf51d 284]

CNN needs to change it's wording on the flight sim angle. They are saying they found 5 airports in the Indian ocean on the pilots hard drive, I am pretty sure they mean 5 flights.

No there was a report there was 5 airports found. (I assume they mean addons or maybe routes too) One was Diego Garcia, a US Military base - Highly unlikely he took it there, as Male Intr. A busy commercial airport, again highly unlikely. and 3 other airports with 1000m runways. Too small for a 777. Another Red Herring!

But wouldn't they burn a significant amount of fuel to climb again?

 

And good point, 5000 feet isn't exactly "nap of the earth" radar evading flying.

Do we know what the release fuel load was? He may have had extra fuel on board. Airlines sometimes do this because fuel at the destination is more expensive.

[BilboBaggins 82]

Oh well, I'll play one more round:

 

1. Continue to believe it's vanishingly unlikely this was any kind of hijacking.  There is simply insufficient evidence to support that claim at this point, anything being defined as "evidence" is extremely speculative at best, and will have a large variety of possible explanations, the vast majority of them not pernicious.

2. IF, however, there is any remote chance that a plane COULD have been captured this way, it is incumbent upon the investigators to search until they prove that has not happened.  Simple risk management.  If the possibility is there, it is necessary to rule it out, given the consequences of what might happen if it were the case.

3.  A third, and I think more shadowy and honestly, to me more nerve-wracking remote possibility is that IF this was a hijacking, it was "simply" a practice run, an attempt to see -- without expectation or plan of any kind to achieve actual success -- whether such a scenario would be feasible, and what would work, and what wouldn't.  I wouldn't put it past the kind of terrorists involved in the past in such events to be thinking that way, and to be gladly willing to sacrifice a few troops to test the theory as a foundation for future planning.  Such an inhuman experiment would reach a logical conclusion by actively burying the evidence where it'd be virtually impossible to find, deep in the Indian Ocean.

 

Now, who would want to do that, and for what geopolitical reason, is completely up in the air. Belarus jokes that it's a US plot, others joke it's a Russian plot to distract, some could just as reasonably argue North Korea did it to punish China for upbraiding them recently; none of these or other possibilities, including the Ayatollah With a Nuke, can be ruled out.  Nevertheless, I still consider them all highly unlikely.

 

The Chinese economy is beginning to soften; Ukraine could easily turn into Greece/Spain/Portugal, another EU state financially enslaved to massive debt owned by the Dutch and Germans, with similar mass unemployment and political instability; Syria is a pit of long-term despair and chaos; Israel is on tenterhooks about Iran; the whole Middle East is in turmoil.  Reality as well is that a lot of political, social and economic unease could be early consequences of global warming, with resource shortages driving chaos in those regions most immediately sensitive to upcoming possibly more radical changes.

 

And then there's the 2014 election in the US, with a good history in this country of those in the past taking desperate measures to tilt world events in favor of their cause.  The US military is radically downsizing, and there are big contractors as well as big states with big economies affected by that fact.

 

Given all of the above, there are any one of a number of theories one could propose about a group, or organization, or corporate conspiracy, or government, or partisan extremist religious fanatic cause, wanting to precipitate chaos with something like this, or worse, if "this is just a test."

 

So, that's all theorizing, too, and I will hope it's as farcical as everything else I've seen in the past few weeks; the sad thing is, it's equally as plausible.

[FLEX1978 373]

No there was a report there was 5 airports found. (I assume they mean addons or maybe routes too) One was Diego Garcia, a US Military base - Highly unlikely he took it there, as Male Intr. A busy commercial airport, again highly unlikely. and 3 other airports with 1000m runways. Too small for a 777. Another Red Herring!

Do we know what the release fuel load was? He may have had extra fuel on board. Airlines sometimes do this because fuel at the destination is more expensive.

 

They didn't uplift any extra fuel.  They had enough for the trip and typical company reserves.  climbing back up to cruise again would burn of a fairly large chunk of the trip fuel.

[fppilot 4,360]

Geezzz!  Now it appears to be one-ups-man-ship on wild speculation.  

 

Next we're liable to have someone suggest that the pilot intentionally went as stealth as possible and then invaded various countries' airspace in an attempt to get shot down to create an international incident.  And perhaps that happened and of course no country would now admit to pulling the trigger.

 

Who's got the next wild one?  (Please keep it as short as possible)

[IUBrian 151]

I'll give you a crazy one (this is in jest, btw)

 

China is behind it, has it hidden, but stages a "fake attack" with the T7 from North Korea. Uses its outrage at the murder of its citizens to launch a surprise attack to take out North Korean leadership, and installs a provisional, Chinese friendly government. Simultaneously gains world stature for ridding the world of a menace, launching an attack no one can blame them for, maintains a buffer between South Korea and the US, which is likely the only reason it still puts up with their nonsense, displays its military prowess (and willingness to use it) to the Pacific region, firmly supplanting the US as "the" power in the region (and putting the fear of God into Japan and Taiwan), and like the US removing Saddam, portrays itself as a true "good" superpower, taking advantage of Russia's unpopular annexation of Crimea and fears of a renewed Cold War.

 

And really, who would believe North Korea's protestations of innocence.

 

I'm not making light of the situation, btw. I'm afraid everyone is dead, and that is a tragedy. But at this point the flow of new "information" has slowed to a drip from what was previously a trickle. There doesn't seem much to add to existing theories.

 

(EDIT - until I found this - seems to be a fairly reasoned argument for an accident )

 

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/03/19/how-flight-370-could-have-become-a-zombie.html

[tf51d 284]

They didn't uplift any extra fuel.  They had enough for the trip and typical company reserves.  climbing back up to cruise again would burn of a fairly large chunk of the trip fuel.

...and we know that how?

[Tom Allensworth 1,532]

 

 

Time for AVSIM to step in and respond, if you dare lol

 

What makes you think we haven't and why "if we dare"? Please explain yourself.

[psolk 3,040]

...and we know that how?

It was stated they took company standard and had 45-60 minute reserve fuel as always for that route for total flying time of 7 to 7.5 hours

[airhauler 2]

Lt. Gen. Tom McInerney and lead investigator of TWA800 both think that the plane flew north and landed in Pakistan on Kellyfile just now

 

This is how I feel that all the evidence keeps pointing in that direction

 

Read my blog which includes Keith Ledgerwood original idea that MH370 shadowed SIA68

 

http://michaelsocalblog.tumblr.com/

[Matthew Kane 1,343]

 

 

Who's got the next wild one?  (Please keep it as short as possible)

 

I am going with alien abduction (short enough for yea)  :ph34r:

[tf51d 284]

It was stated they took company standard and had 45-60 minute reserve fuel as always for that route for total flying time of 7 to 7.5 hours

With all the misinformation the Malaysians put out though this, you'll forgive me if I don't take anything they say at face value! Just say though your right and I'm right that it was hijacked with the intended destination to Socotra Island, or some where in that area. Assuming it wasn't the pilots, it's possible the hijackers didn't realize dropping down low ate extra fuel, and they didn't make it. In which case the plane would be down some where between the Maldives and Yemen. Which would mean the search area is still in the wrong place. I just can't reconcile why they would go South where there's nothing, where the main search area is currently. Interesting it was moved a little further west today though.