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RobJC

What would it take for LR and/or LM to win your money back?

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1.  Streaming satellite data.  It's hard to look at a textured impression of what the world should look like after seeing satellite data and imaging everywhere

2.  Accurate photogrammetry.  If they could fix the horrible melting and morphing we see up close today that would be key and imperative to their commercial market as well

3.  Performance/Engine rewrite.  I'm done with limiting my $3,000 systems in 2021 to fill the gap for poor performance in the underlying sim engine.  60, 120, 144 hz is the norm now, give me a sim that can take advantage of the HW I paid for.  

4.  Don't break the current add-ons in the process.  If it requires PMDG, FSL to go re-port their products again it's game over again.  Need to be able to leverage current investment.  


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-Paul Solk

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1 hour ago, mtaxp said:

More like wishful thinking, sorry to ruin it for you, last time I checked steam stats show that x-plane had a slight growth since MSFS released.

3rd party devs are as well claiming their sales on the platform are mostly untouched (unlike P3D) + even more developers are joining the x-plane eco system which currently has active developemnt of study level aircrafts that MSFS can only dream of for now; just to name a few: LEVELUP 737, FF777, FF787, TOLISS A340, INI A380, FELIS 747-200. 

Also professional contracts (this is where the true money in flight simulation really comes from, and not a random user on avsim pretending to be a737 captain) + millions of other customers on the mobile platform. The latter mobile category, just an FYI, has more users than all of MSFS's sales combined. 

All of this while everyone who uses XP11 is mostly waiting for 25.9 when the next major version is announced.

"Whose future appears to be dire" , massive LOL, at least you got 4 likes and some more confidence boost online, this forum is a bubble indeed, your opinion is a niche of a niche compared to real stats and numbers, I hope you get over it soon it seems like you really wanted it to happen.

No offense, but a lot of pure P3D users were like you last year shortly after the release of MSFS, claiming that MSFS would fail, P3D was here to stay, etc.  That tune from some of the purist P3D users has changed this year.

If X-Plane 11 continues as it is, I have no doubt that MSFS would eventually take over the entire home flight simulation market.  However, X-Plane's true saving grace is X-Plane 12 - we will see what happens when X-Plane 12 is released as that will tell if X-Plane will survive or not in the home consumer flight simulation market.

Edited by abrams_tank
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Even Stevie Wonder could see where this thread was headed.

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4 hours ago, Rogen said:

Sooner or later there will be a crunch time... unless it's always been Microsoft's intention to run MSFS as a loss leader, which after spending ~6 years in dev with hundreds? of dev crew it

Oh, I doubt Microsoft will keep the 200 developers, or whatever the number is, on MSFS after 5 years.  They will gradually scale back the developers over time.  Since Asobo/Microsoft said MSFS is a 10 year project, by the 5th or 6th year of MSFS, they will probably be planning MSFS 2 for release in 2030 or so and shift more developers to the new MSFS 2 project, and we will have to purchase the new MSFS 2 after 10 years.

 


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20 minutes ago, abrams_tank said:

No offense, but a lot of pure P3D users were like you last year shortly after the release of MSFS, claiming that MSFS would fail, 

A little tip for logic: If somebody claims that x-plane is not going away anytime soon this has 0 relevance to whether he thinks MSFS will fail or not.

As long as x-plane pro is standing there is no reason for x-plane home to go away; both are the same other than projection tech for pro-sims who need it.

You can speculate as much as you want, meanwhile the x-plane eco system wasn't affected at all by the "MSFS storm" according to every usage stat and 3rd part developer and we are in an almost 5 years old product. I wouldn't underestimate what XP12 can bring to the table:

 

And this preview was allegedly a very out of date early demo from months ago while they are putting the all the features together, no tree LOD problem in this one, can even see tree tops shapes on the really far mountains😉

 

Edited by mtaxp
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11 minutes ago, mtaxp said:

A little tip for logic: If somebody claims that x-plane is not going away anytime soon this has 0 relevance to whether he thinks MSFS will fail or not.

As long as x-plane pro is standing there is no reason for x-plane home to go away; both are the same other than projection tech for pro-sims who need it.

You can speculate as much as you want, meanwhile the x-plane eco system wasn't affected at all by the "MSFS storm" according to every usage stat and 3rd part developer and we are in an almost 5 year product still due to the next generation of it.

So I was very careful in my choice of words: "If X-Plane 11 continues as it is, I have no doubt that MSFS would eventually take over the entire home flight simulation market."

I'm not referring to the Commercial market, which I have no doubt that X-Plane and P3D will keep their market share for the time being.  For the home flight simulation market though (for PC of course), MSFS is definitely a threat to both P3D and X-Plane, especially as high fidelity airliners make their way to the MSFS platform, starting with the Fenix A320 and PMDG 737.

Edited by abrams_tank

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5 minutes ago, abrams_tank said:

So I was very careful in my choice of word: "If X-Plane 11 continues as it is, I have no doubt that MSFS would eventually take over the entire home flight simulation market."

I'm not referring to the Commercial market, which I have no doubt that X-Plane and P3D will keep their market share for the time being.  For the home flight simulation market though (for PC of course), MSFS is definitely a threat to both P3D and X-Plane, especially as high fidelity airliners make their way to the MSFS platform, starting with the Fenix A320 and PMDG 737.

If you want to really try to justify your opinion by setting the bar for just "home simulation market" excluding marginal $$$ and user bases you are free to do so. But the facts still speak and every speculation you had about x-plane for now is wrong, maybe just don't over talk about a platform you are not familiar with. You keep talking about how funding is going to go so here you go, just as LR always said the mobile the pro and the home version fund each other. But shout some mails to austin maybe teach him how to run a business. 

You keep mentioning PMDG and fenix while x-plane is way beyond that, those are just 2 airliners while I counted at least 4X more study level aircrafts on development, should I care?

Edited by mtaxp
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Back on topic, the question is…what would it take for LR/LM to win your money back? This is for people who have decided to leave XP and P3D for MSFS. If you aren’t planning on leaving those products, this thread isn’t for you. 


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16 minutes ago, mtaxp said:

But shout some mails to austin maybe teach him how to run a business. 

So as some one who studied business as my major and my degree (I also run my business), you spend every day studying business case studies day in and day out.  I view MSFS vs X-Plane/P3D as another case study that I would have studied back when I was studying business for my major.  I can say this since it is an obvious fact: if X-Plane and P3D had modern graphics (like MSFS does now) and also modeled the entire world with accurate satellite & photogrammetry (plus the conversion of 2D satellite to 3D by a company like Blackshark AI), Microsoft & Asobo would have looked at X-Plane and P3D and told themselves it's a waste of money trying to compete against X-Plane and P3D.

Companies are out there to make money and if Microsoft & Asobo viewed the competition as too high, they would have just moved on to another project that could make them money, rather than lose money on developing MSFS.  The fact that Microsoft & Asobo looked at the home flight simulation market, and realized how far behind the technology was in P3D and X-Plane, they came to the conclusion that they could make a modern flight simulator like MSFS and take market share away from P3D and X-Plane.

This is a fact that Microsoft saw a business opening in the home flight simulation market for PC.  That opening shouldn't have been there in the first place if P3D and X-Plane were using modern graphics and was covering the entire world with accurate satellite & photogrammetry.  

In the last 10 years of flight simulation in the home market, P3D and X-Plane barely moved the ball forward.  P3D and X-Plane, at most, moved the ball forward by a few yards in the last 10 years.  Microsoft & Asobo come in, and they punt the ball 90 yards down the field, rather than the few yards that P3D and X-Plane managed to moved over the last 10 years.

I can't teach Austin how to run his own business since he knows best how to run it.  I can say though that Austin and LM left Microsoft an opening to enter the home flight simulation market, which is pretty obvious by now.

Edited by abrams_tank
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1 hour ago, abrams_tank said:

They will gradually scale back the developers over time.  

Wow! Then this is self-fulfilling. Developers, if development is faster then you will be gone sooner....  💭

Edited by fppilot

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4 hours ago, mtaxp said:

More like wishful thinking, sorry to ruin it for you, last time I checked steam stats show that x-plane had a slight growth since MSFS released.

 

Wow what an increase, from around  1,400 users to maybe almost 1600 users in many months. X Plane must be taking the world by storm....LOL

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So X-Plane's big talking-point now is that its trees will soon be improving. 

2 hours ago, mtaxp said:

 

And this preview was allegedly a very out of date early demo from months ago while they are putting the all the features together, no tree LOD problem in this one, can even see tree tops shapes on the really far mountains😉

 

If this is the biggest improvement coming in X-Plane 12, then I am unimpressed. And, I must confess, I'm quite baffled. X-Plane advocates are constantly boasting about how their sim showcases the most realistic flight models (allegedly, possibly, maybe) and that graphical representation of the world outside the cockpit is of interest only to the rabble. Now, with X-Plane 12, their biggest talking point seems to be, "Look, our trees are swaying in the breeze." I also noticed the POV used in this video of the swaying trees -- on the ground, in the middle of a forest, looking directly up a tree trunk. How realistic is this? You're not much of a pilot if the view outside your cockpit window is the middle of a forest, at ground level, looking directly up a tree trunk. Perhaps someone should call out the emergency equipment! Moreover, when the camera pulls back, displaying hundreds of trees at once in the demo, the trees are no longer swaying in the breeze (because X-Plane 12 can't handle the frame hit.) MSFS of course also has trees swaying in the breeze -- a fact many users don't even realize because this feature is imperceptible when flying aircraft in the simulator. My prediction is that the forthcoming release of X-Plane 12 will be met with the same lackluster response as the release of P3D v5.

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3 hours ago, RobJC said:

Back on topic, the question is…what would it take for LR/LM to win your money back? This is for people who have decided to leave XP and P3D for MSFS. If you aren’t planning on leaving those products, this thread isn’t for you. 

This topic is not for me. Content with what I have. 🙂

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15 hours ago, W2DR said:

LM's main concern is flight simulation

Their main concern, which worked quite well for them pre-MSFS, is creating 'cockpit simulators' for people willing to falsely claim they are bonified aviation students in order to pay the $50 academic license fee for each of now 5 iterations, or $200 x 5 for the more honest among us.  

15 hours ago, W2DR said:

MSFS is mainly concerned with eye-candy

This is the classic denegration of 'real world graphics' into the poorly veiled derogetory descriptor of that as, 'eye candy', an inherently dismissive lable for real world scenery, lighting and atmospherics.  Perhaps for you flying thru landclass-based, completely inaccurate, can't tell where you really are, sometimes pretty, and always unreal environment that the expensive cockpit simulator offers.  Of course you can get your wallet out because absolutely everyone does to try to turn the 'cockpit simulator' into a real world flight simulator, and cough up another $1000 only to discover performance suffers immensely in the process--go ahead and fly that PMDG 737 NGXu into KSFO-HD in Orbx NCA w/ detail maxed and tell us how it all worked out...🤣

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3 hours ago, mtaxp said:

If you want to really try to justify your opinion by setting the bar for just "home simulation market" excluding marginal $$$ and user bases you are free to do so. But the facts still speak and every speculation you had about x-plane for now is wrong, maybe just don't over talk about a platform you are not familiar with. You keep talking about how funding is going to go so here you go, just as LR always said the mobile the pro and the home version fund each other. But shout some mails to austin maybe teach him how to run a business. 

You keep mentioning PMDG and fenix while x-plane is way beyond that, those are just 2 airliners while I counted at least 4X more study level aircrafts on development, should I care?

They were still making VHS Tapes, when DVD players started appearing. 

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Bob Cardone         MSFS 2020 , Fenix A320, Milviz C 310 , Kodiak , Simple Traffic  

TrackIR   Avliasoft EFB2    ATC  by PF3    FlyVirtual.net  CLX PC

 

 

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