1 hour ago, dave2013 said:

Looks to me like a simple short-term heat wave.  Happens all the time, all over the world, and usually in Summer.

 

Short term yes, happens around the world yes. And they are becoming more intense and frequent, as expected in a warming world.

 

1 hour ago, dave2013 said:

Otherwise, there is no cause for alarm

 

Alarm might not be the right word. Given that there's an 80% chance of 40 degrees, which would be a record to beat last year's record, and that people in the UK have no air-conditioning, houses desighned for the cold, not heat, biologically not accustomed to protracted heat waves peaking at possibly 40 degrees, a laxadazical attitude to high temps as a result of limited experience, increased deaths during previous heat waves... its right that the authorites alert us and advise us to be careful.

 

Edited July 15, 20223 yr by martin-w

This is an extremely potent area of hot air that will be arriving over the British Isles overnight Saturday. It has been caused by a vortex of low pressure positioned west of Portugal for the last week. The heat has been building over the Iberian peninsula during that time.

Further north, an extension of the Azores high has moved slowly towards Britain. It will continue to move slowly east over the weekend. As it moves towards Denmark the circulation will introduce that hot air over the southern half of the British Isles.

The hot air will arrive quickly and move east by Wednesday morning. But during that time much of the southern half of the country including my area will experience higher temperatures than ever before.

The highest temperature my station has recorded is 35.4°C back in July 2019. It’s being forecast it could reach 37°C (99°F) on Tuesday afternoon. Minima may not drop below 22°C.

Both these will set new records. I’m quite looking forward to it accepting it will be an uncomfortable few days and nights. When you’re a weather fan these events are very interesting.

1 hour ago, martin-w said:

Given that there's an 80% chance of 40 degrees, which would be a record to beat last year's record, and that people in the UK have no air-conditioning, houses desighned for the cold, not heat, biologically not accustomed to protracted heat waves peaking at possibly 40 degrees, a laxadazical attitude to high temps as a result of limited experience, increased deaths during previous heat waves... its right that the authorites alert us and advise us to be careful.

This what you wrote in your initial post:

"Dangerous weather is expected and, if you have not done so already, you should take action now to keep yourself and others safe from the impact of the severe weather."

"It is very likely that there will be a risk to life, with substantial disruption to travel, energy supplies and possibly widespread damage to property and infrastructure."

Widespread damage to property and infrastructure??? 

Please. 

The record temperature was set in Kent, England in 2003 at 38.5C.  No one knows what the temperatures were before the 1700s as there is no accurate data available for most of human history.

It will be uncomfortable if you don't have air conditioning, but 40C is not going to kill anybody as long as you stay hydrated, with the exception of the infirm and elderly - those vulnerable folks should go to an air conditioned location or stay in the shade and stay hydrated.  I don't think buildings will be damaged either.

Dave

Edited July 16, 20223 yr by dave2013

2 minutes ago, dave2013 said:

It will be uncomfortable if you don't have air conditioning, but 40C is not going to kill anybody as long as you stay hydrated.  I don't think buildings will be damaged either.

This is dangerously irresponsible advice. 40c can easily kill vulnerable people if their bodies are unable to cool down, even with plenty of hydration.

This is not the time for complacent ‘don’t panic, it’s nothing’ sentiments. Even here in Japan which does have the infrastructure for such weather, 40c is treated as extremely serious.

2 minutes ago, scotchegg said:

This is dangerously irresponsible advice. 40c can easily kill vulnerable people if their bodies are unable to cool down, even with plenty of hydration.

I forgot to add the exception which is the infirm and elderly.  I did this in a previous post.  My bad.

There are people all over the world who deal with temps like this every summer, and many of them don't have air conditioning.  It is true that the Brits aren't used to it.  It will be uncomfortable.

If you stay hydrated and in the shade the overwhelming majority of people will be fine.

We're scolded for equating weather with climate, but every time there is a heat wave there are the usual people who blow it all out of proportion and raise the alarm.

Dave

Normal  summer day in Australia

Several years ago we hit 116F (46C) in Roswell.  Nobody was out and about.

Buy everything here is airconditioned.  So there is no cause for alarm.

But if it weren't for airconditioning would places like Atlanta. Dallas and Phoenix be the cities and business centers they are today?

Noel

1 hour ago, dave2013 said:

If you stay hydrated and in the shade the overwhelming majority of people will be fine.

Dave - I feel your crusade has stolen your compassion.  The majority will be fine.  well yes Im sure thats often the case.  Not everyone will be fine.  You know that it takes time to aclimate to the summer heat.  Those in the UK probably dont have to to do that very much.

and yes infrastructure - roads that melt and buckle..maybe runways at airports...who knows.  I hope they have large air conditioned places to go to aqnd ways to get there.  We do here but do they? do they all?

And yet a little farther north in Scotland, the players at the Open are wearing sweaters. 

Maybe time for a road trip north for the folks in the south.

A good piece of advice for those who need to cool down and have no a/c. If your home for the day and get hot draw a bath with cold tap water or take a cool shower every once in a while. It’s simple but helps. Or go sit in the car with a/c on for a bit.

My a/c went out once when living in Tucson, Az during the summer and I had a bath tub filled with cold water and would get in for 20-30 minutes at a time to cool off. Had I not done that, I would have been almost unbearable.

3 hours ago, dave2013 said:

We're scolded for equating weather with climate, but every time there is a heat wave there are the usual people who blow it all out of proportion and raise the alarm.

Not really interested in your position on climate change. Will actively resist any attempts to say this is all perfectly normal and there’s no need to ‘raise the alarm’.

Dangerous nonsense.

This is why I live in a temperate zone, if it's cold you put something on, if it's hot you could take everything off, it doesn't matter you are still hot.

1 hour ago, Matthew Kane said:

This is why I live in a temperate zone, if it's cold you put something on, if it's hot you could take everything off, it doesn't matter you are still hot.

I think that this is the whole point, the UK is a temperate zone, which is why there is concern about temperatures that do not normally occur in temperate zones.
There is another less serious point, the highest temperatures are forecast in an area to include London and the press and government are largely based there.
Sometimes it is forgotten by them that there are other parts of the UK when they are directly affected.

The forecast for Ulverston (from the BBC weather website) shows 29C on Monday and Tuesday. I will be very happy if that is as hot as it gets. Very high temperatures can be dangerous if you are not careful, even if you are young, fit and healthy.

10 hours ago, dave2013 said:

 

The temp today in London, a large city and thus prone to urban heat island effects, 

 

This protracted heat wave is a Europe wide phenomonon. Europe isn't a city, British Isles isn't a city, the regions of the Midlands worst affected, isn't a city, and my son in Birmingham isn't living in the city, and London, doesn't just mean the city.

Urban heat island effects impact cities. 

8 hours ago, dave2013 said:

This what you wrote in your initial post:

 

No I didn't. It was a quote from the Met Office.

 

8 hours ago, dave2013 said:

 

The record temperature was set in Kent, England in 2003 at 38.5C.  No one knows what the temperatures were before the 1700s as there is no accurate data available for most of human history.

It will be uncomfortable if you don't have air conditioning, but 40C is not going to kill anybody as long as you stay hydrated, with the exception of the infirm and elderly - those vulnerable folks should go to an air conditioned location or stay in the shade and stay hydrated.  I don't think buildings will be damaged either.

Dave

 

Damage is impacting infrastructure now. Roads are melting. Gritters are in action as a result. Something we usually only see in the winter.

And people don't stay hydrated, and people don't stay in the shade, and we know the death rate increases in protracted heat waves. Deaths have occured already. Hence... why its essential that the authorities warn people. If they didn't, they would be chastised for it. To warn unprepared Brits of the dangers is common sense, not alarmist.

We do know with reasonable accuracy what european temps were prior to 1700, from proxy data. And we know what the causal factors were that were responsible for past, extended warm periods, like the medieval warm period. Namely, decrease in volcanism, increase in solar activity and signifcant changes in ocean currents. None of those causal factors are present now.

You recently claimed you now agree that mankind is responsible for recent warning but every chance you get you vehemently play it down, this thread is a perfect example. You also take every oportunity to divert topics in this direction and exaggerate the negatives of renewable energy.

 

You are a denier in stealth mode!

 

 

Edited July 16, 20223 yr by martin-w