1000x larger than P3D?????

Let's do some math.

So if a developer sold 1000 units of an add on in P3D, at $100 (non discounted FSLabs Concorde), and they grossed $100 000, they would earn $100 million if they made it for MSFS?!

It's a certainty they sold in the 10's of thousands over the life of the Concorde, so let's base it off a known developer.  Level D has made it public they sold 35000 units of their 767 for FS9 only.  I'll use that number as an example.  35000 units x $100.  That's $3.5 million gross.  Reasonable.  There are website costs, server costs, developers need to be paid, advertising, store commission, etc...

The record number of sales for an add on is over 90 000, between P3D and FSX.

Multiply that $3.5 million by 1000 (1000x larger market than P3D), that's $3.5 billion!!!

The add on that sold 90 000 units...let's say that one also cost $100.  That's a gross of $9 million in P3D and FSX.  Again, very reasonable.  As a matter of fact, exceptional.

Multiply that by 1000(???!!!)

$9 BILLION in gross sales.

MSFS, HERE I COME!!!!!

Ok, let's go with the more conservative estimate.  

100x larger.  3.5 million x 100.

$350 million in gross sales??!!

The highest selling add on.

9 million x 100.

$900 million??!!

MSFS, HERE I COME!!!!!

 

Shall I even entertain the validity of these figures?  

(Here come the "Get out of here, troll" comments.)

Edited November 20, 20232 yr by GoranM

@GoranM,

If everyone would buy the product probably yes, but you cannot assume that only because the market gets bigger everyone will buy your product. It's just that more people are potential customers so revenue can increased, not that the whole market will buy your product.

Edited November 20, 20232 yr by Ray Proudfoot
Long quoted post removed.

1 hour ago, 737_800 said:

If everyone would buy the product probably yes, but you cannot assume that only because the market gets bigger everyone will buy your product. It's just that more people are potential customers so revenue can increased, not that the whole market will buy your product.

First of all, no.  Even if every single person (10 million, which includes those who tried it out as part of Gamepass) bought an add on at $100, that would "only" equal $1 billion.  

I never said the whole market.  I based the numbers off a known developer and their revenue, for 1 add on, that was made public.  Level D (LDS)  sold 35000 units of their 767 for FS9 only.  That's 35000 ACTUAL sales.  All the math is derived from that.  Not the entire user base comprising of, reportedly, 10 million.  Robert claims the MSFS 2020 userbase is 1000x larger than P3D.  I'm just multiplying the sales of 1 add on from 20 years ago, by 1000.  Safe to say the market has grown since then, so 35 000 is a very conservative number by today's standards.

Basically, Robert claims that P3D has a userbase of 10 000.  (10 million downloads of MSFS 2020 divided by 1000), and abrams is using a more conservative estimate of 100.  10 million divided by 100x, so he's assuming P3D has a userbase of 100 000.  I know, for a fact, P3D has a far larger userbase than that.

Edited November 20, 20232 yr by GoranM

6 hours ago, lwt1971 said:

What is interesting is how MS/Asobo and other aircaft devs feel that there's a need and a market for higher fidelity aircraft for XBox. Goes against the common thinking that XBox'ers only care about casual simming. I've seen XBox'ers on the official MSFS forums and elsewhere complaining about the need for higher fidelity aircraft both default and payware accessible on that platform, so that's all goodness. Also speaks to what RSR was saying how some might initially come into MSFS via XBox (or PC) with casual intentions and then get interested enough to want higher fidelity content.
 

This, and can only be good for the future. I think it's great Xbox players are looking to higher fidelity aircraft and addons. What a fantastic time to be a flight simmer whatever platform your on.

if there's so much money available, please throw more resource at the 777 project

So I guess we won't see the price of the 777 drop by 1000%. :)

14 minutes ago, EGLD said:

if there's so much money available, please throw more resource at the 777 project

Future products for MSFS, team expansion, etc: https://youtu.be/QByw5jN43Bc?t=6329
- re: community frustratation who feel PMDG are slow: recent hiring binge has dramatically increased the team size, they plan to hire more in 2024

 

  

3 minutes ago, Jude Bradley said:

So I guess we won't see the price of the 777 drop by 1000%. 🙂

more casual simmers & gamers getting into the community: https://youtu.be/QByw5jN43Bc?t=4782
- RSR thinks this is a good thing since coming into MSFS is an opportunity to expand their interest in more fidelity i.e. "gateway drug", even if it's a small portion of these who get interested in higher fidelity aircraft as that's net new users interested in more serious simming

- PMDG trying to lower price point to increase this entry of more casual users

 

Edited November 20, 20232 yr by F737MAX

6 hours ago, abrams_tank said:

Creo que hay dos razones. La primera y más importante es que las empresas no se dan cuenta de la pérdida de ingresos durante varios años si no lanzan un producto durante ese período de tiempo. La mayor parte de los ingresos de un producto de simulación de vuelo probablemente se produzcan cuando el producto se lanza inicialmente. Ahí es cuando hay más entusiasmo por un producto. Pero si no lanza un producto durante varios años, es posible que no sea tan consciente de la situación del mercado. Creo que el mejor ejemplo de esto es FSLabs. Anunciaron el Concorde solo para P3D, incluso después del lanzamiento de MSFS, en el otoño de 2020. FSLabs, en el otoño de 2020, en realidad tenía plena confianza en el futuro del mercado P3D. Pero el mercado ya estaba cambiando en el otoño de 2020, y FSLabs tardó en reconocerlo. Un avance rápido hasta 2023, FSLabs reconoció que el mercado P3D está diezmado y que el mercado se ha trasladado a MSFS. Pero, ¿FSLabs tardó quizás uno o dos años en darse cuenta de esto y finalmente admitirlo públicamente en 2023?

La segunda razón es probablemente la cantidad de tiempo que le lleva a un equipo de desarrollo cambiar a otra plataforma. Si bien he oído que hay algunos puntos en común entre P3D y MSFS, he oído que el SDK de XP es muy diferente y a los desarrolladores de XP les lleva mucho más tiempo cambiar a MSFS. Volver a capacitar a los desarrolladores de software lleva tiempo y no es fácil. Por la misma razón, si una empresa desarrolla principalmente para Android, no puede pasar a desarrollar para iPhone de la noche a la mañana. Y el tiempo para volver a capacitarse y también hacer que los desarrolladores sean productivos en el nuevo entorno de desarrollo lleva tiempo (incluso si los desarrolladores de Android acumularan el conocimiento básico de programación para iPhone de la noche a la mañana, aún les llevaría tiempo volverse muy productivos en la programación en el entorno de iPhone). ). Al final, el tiempo es dinero, por lo que quizás el presidente/CEO de algunas empresas de desarrollo no quiera perder tiempo volviendo a capacitar a su equipo de desarrollo para trabajar con la nueva plataforma.

 

A third point is that MFS does not currently offer a platform for developing the products that some developers want.

10 minutes ago, Aglos77 said:

A third point is that MFS does not currently offer a platform for developing the products that some developers want.

More often than not developers develop their own solutions that’s agnostic of platform so I don’t entirely agree with this point. MSFS offers a fairly decent globalized offering but sometimes you need a very granular approach to something which no sim offers requiring you doing your own solution. 
 

For example, FBW developing their own physics implementation for the A380’s wings, engine and tail cone.

2 hours ago, GoranM said:

I know, for a fact, P3D has a far larger userbase than that.

If the P3D userbase is so large, why did V6 land like a wet fart? Barely anyone is moving add-ons forward to it. You should let PMDG, FSL, iFly, etc. know that there's actually a massive P3D market for them to go after. Somehow they missed the memo and are focusing on MSFS first. 

2 hours ago, GoranM said:

(Here come the "Get out of here, troll" comments.)

I wouldn't say you're trolling, but it is weird that you went off over a pretty innocuous comment. The fact is, the MSFS market is much larger than P3D, and PMDG is now just one of many fish in a bigger pond. That's all RSR was saying. This isn't groundbreaking news. 

Please spend less time in here and more time finishing the aft equipment bay for the CL650 1.8 update. 😁

Edited November 20, 20232 yr by chapstick

26 minutes ago, chapstick said:

If the P3D userbase is so large, why did V6 land like a wet fart? Barely anyone is moving add-ons forward to it. You should let PMDG, FSL, iFly, etc. know that there's actually a massive P3D market for them to go after. Somehow they missed the memo and are focusing on MSFS first. 

I never said the P3D market was massive.  I said it's larger than 100 000 (conservative estimate) and much, MUCH larger than Robert's estimate (10 000).  10 000 is just too ridiculous to even consider.  I'm simply presenting a conclusion, derived from given information.  

26 minutes ago, chapstick said:

I wouldn't say you're trolling, but it is weird that you went off over a pretty innocuous comment.

I wouldn't say I "went off".  If I had a mouthful of coffee, I probably would have spat it out after reading "1000x higher userbase than P3D".  Innocuous?  It's hilariously ludicrous.  I've seen many unusual comments, and I usually just smh and move on.  But for a reputable developer to come out and make such an outlandish comment is, weird.  And I find myself asking...why???  Is he hyping it up to be something more than what it is??  If so, why??  It doesn't need it.  

26 minutes ago, chapstick said:

The fact is, the MSFS market is much larger than P3D

Agreed.  Without objection.  And much larger than abrams estimate of 100 000.  I really want to mention the actual figure, but obviously, no-can-do.  

26 minutes ago, chapstick said:

Please spend let time in here and more time finishing the aft equipment bay for the CL650 1.8 update.

I sometimes need a smile.  1000x more people in MSFS than P3D gave me a big one.

Besides, I was up until 4am this morning working on it.

Back to work.  I've said what I wanted to say.  I'll let the math speak for itself now.  

I have to say I'm surprised there are people who actually blindly believed Robert's comments, without even considering the math.

Edited November 20, 20232 yr by GoranM

Do you think the p3d home user group is over 100k or are you including commercial and military?

23 minutes ago, GoranM said:

Agreed.  Without objection.  And much larger than abrams estimate of 100 000.  I really want to mention the actual figure, but obviously, no-can-do. 

Maybe you have reading comprehension issues? Please don't put words in my mouth and re-read my original comment. I never said P3D had 100K users. Robert said the MSFS market is 1000x the size of P3D's market. 1000x means 1000 times in typical English.  I said maybe Randazzo was exaggerating but since he has access to the sales numbers that we don't, maybe a conservative estimate that MSFS is 100x P3D's market when the XBox market is factored in is more reasonable. 100x means 100 times in typical English.

I never said P3D had 100K users. Please don't put words in my mouth.

Edited November 20, 20232 yr by abrams_tank

21 minutes ago, micstatic said:

Do you think the p3d home user group is over 100k or are you including commercial and military?

Much higher.  Based on add on sales only.  I doubt military would buy add ons, but if they do, we can include the military.  

I'm happy to explain my conclusion without giving away actual numbers that would reveal too much information.  These numbers don't include MSFS due to the nature of Gamepass, and Asobo mentioning MSFS has had 10 million DOWNLOADS.  Not SALES.

The percentages are fairly consistent between X-Plane and P3D, based on discussions I've had with 2 P3D developers.  

For a developer to sell an add on to 3%-5% of the total user base of a flight sim, is above average.  3% is about the average.  

The developer who sold 90 000 units for P3D and FSX (probably more by now, since that was after about 3 years) reached a considerably higher number than that 3%-5%.

13 minutes ago, abrams_tank said:

Maybe you have reading comprehension issues?

No.  I'm afraid you have math issues.  

A reported 10 million MSFS userbase divided by 100 (your number), is 100 000 people using P3D.  As you said, you assumed MSFS is 100x bigger than P3D.  I'm using your number to divide into 10 million (The number given by Asobo).

 

Edited November 20, 20232 yr by GoranM

gents.  we can have this subject and discuss with civility right?