HiFlyer

Why the World is Running Out of Pilots

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Ughhh..... 🤕

 

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hiflyer,

I do not know where you dragged this video from but the perpetrator is very much preaching to a knowledgable and converted audience.

 I am very sure there is a message there somewhere but drawing a line from Dubai to Sydney and following it up with an aircraft landing at an unknown airport, does not really tell me why there is a pilot shortage. I have to admit that I have very little knowledge in this area but this video told me three fifths of sweet F. All.

I am not criticising you in any way shape or form but it just seemed to me, to be entirely nonsensical to the unwashed  and word not allowed hordes out in the real world(me included). I would have thought that if support is what he was chasing, then a little more information which related to the images might have been a little more helpful. I also feel that most of the world is aware of the pilot shortage and I was actually eager to get some more information about it with this video. Unfortunately, that simply did not happen.

Did anyone else find this baffling??

Regards

Tony

 

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14 minutes ago, himmelhorse said:

I do not know where you dragged this video from

Youtube? 😃

15 minutes ago, himmelhorse said:

I also feel that most of the world is aware of the pilot shortage

Why would you think that? I would think that the vast majority have no idea, especially of pilots salaries in various countries, the requirements for working for a commercial airline, and all sorts of information that while known to me as a "general" subject, was lacking in details that the video provided, such as hours worked, how those hours were counted and lots of other information I had only a vague knowledge of.

Not everyone, and certainly not the general public would be aware of much of this information, and I hope there are at least a few out there that found the video as interesting as I did.

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Devon,

I think and said that because of media coverage. For instance QANTAS mentions it frequently. I do not know about the media in UK or the US nor indeed America. I have seen it in print and on News coverage at least four times but no information in depth, which is why the video caught my attention in the first place.

Also I never said it was not interesting ... I just found it baffling in that I could not relate to information like Fuel usage in relation to pilot shortages. A lot of it just did not make sense.

Hold the boat guys....I initially played the video on my laptop and all I got was music with no voice at all. I have however just replayed it on another computer to re check an item and "found the Voice"  So I retract all and I mean ALL I said and will re look at the video. 

I apologise unreservedly for my inadvertant stuff up.

Regards

Tony

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The one main reason I grasped for the pilot shortage is the refusal to invest in a 300K education and only getting a 30K salary - and only getting paid for when you're in the air. That's a bit too much to sacrifice.

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Devon,

Just as an aside, have a look at the video without sound and I think you will understand where I came from in my original statements.

Regards

Tony

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The world will never be short of a pilot so long as Ace Rimmer is around!

 

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12 minutes ago, tamsini said:

The one main reason I grasped for the pilot shortage is the refusal to invest in a 300K education and only getting a 30K salary - and only getting paid for when you're in the air. That's a bit too much to sacrifice.

That’s certainly part of it. A friend of mine didn’t spend that much but around $100,000 at an aviation school in Tulsa. First airline gig he got was flying the ATR-72 or SAAB 340 for  American Eagle. Started out making around $32,000. He had to get a roommate to split rent to make ends meet. He always joked about the FA’s getting paid more than him.

The US military also has or is going to have pilot shortages as well. That’s not surprising as hard as it used to be to get a pilot slot in the US military. When I was in college I was in the UASF ROTC. When I was getting ready to do the last two years known as the POC, you’ll be required to serve at least 4 years after graduation. The problem I had at the time is that I had corrected vision, which made it really hard to get a waiver for a pilot slot. I decided not to take a chance getting stuck in the air force for 4 years and didn’t do the POC.

Either way, if you try to get free flight training in the military you have to not only be a top student, but also and almost perfect physical specimen. If you go the civilian route it will cost you a ton of money that will take a while to recoup based on low salaries.

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39 minutes ago, himmelhorse said:

Devon,

Just as an aside, have a look at the video without sound and I think you will understand where I came from in my original statements.

Regards

Tony

No harm, no fowl. 🙂

 

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'Cause so many of us are instead so captivated with simulators!  LOL!

 

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Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, cmpbellsjc said:

The US military also has or is going to have pilot shortages as well. That’s not surprising as hard as it used to be to get a pilot slot in the US military. When I was in college I was in the UASF ROTC. When I was getting ready to do the last two years known as the POC, you’ll be required to serve at least 4 years after graduation. The problem I had at the time is that I had corrected vision, which made it really hard to get a waiver for a pilot slot. I decided not to take a chance getting stuck in the air force for 4 years and didn’t do the POC. 

When my low draft number of 70 captured me in 1970, I investigated my enlistment and commissioning options.  I had four years of college under my belt, but had exhausted my one year of waiver ability after transferring from one state's institution to another state's institution. Some of my education hours transferred as electives, so I had fallen behind on degree requirements, as defined.  I would have loved to have taken advantage of flight training and an aviation role.  But the commitment to 6 years of service was more than I was willing to go for.  So I understand.

My fortune was that the USAF put me through meteorological training and sent me to an Army Air Field (AAF) at Forney AAF at Ft Leonard Wood, Missouri (KTBN), where through conducting ground weather school training for US Army rotary and fixed wing pilots, and for the flying club, I was able to pursue my pilot training dreams at no cost!

I often wish I was back in the day!  Since 1985, when joining a new employer, I have been strictly a simulator pilot.  I was married with two kids at that time and I needed to relinquish my FAA registration to qualify for my new employer's benefits-included life insurance coverage, equal to twice my annual salary!  Something I was clearly compelled to do!

Edited by fppilot

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Posted (edited)

This is exactly why I didn't go for my Commercial Licence. I started school as a Mechanical Engineer at 18 and was working full time by 22 with a very good salary. At 24 because I had a good disposable income I went to Flight School and I was thinking of making a career change. I got through PPL and was at the point to pursue commercial but walked away. This was back in 1994 and the pay back then wasn't good enough for me to give up on my Mechanical Engineering salary and take a big pay drop to chase a dream.

Today more then 25 years later it is even worse, the pay is worst then ever, when you compare costs of training and amount of time to train etc as pointed out in this video. Airliners are taking advantage of the ones that dream of flying and are willing to put them through all of that to become a pilot and end up selling their potential income far short because they are chasing a dream. Even decades into that career the eventual salaries still fall short compared to other careers with similar education standards and years of experience, not to mention the inevitable compromised pension plan. 

Reality is I wanted to be a pilot in the 1960s, when it was a revered job with great pay, I realized in 1994 those days were long gone so I walked away, best decision I ever made. Good thing the Flight SIms got better since then, it satisfies my interests in aviation enough and I am very glad I didn't compromise my potential earnings chasing a dream. 

Edited by Matthew Kane
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I recommend watching the Frontline episode "Flying Cheap".  This may not only discourage one from wanting to become a pilot, but may well discourage anyone from ever flying again.  Having said that, and despite the issues with the regional carriers, aircraft accidents, especially fatal ones, are still very rare.

Dave

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Tell me there is a pilot shortage when there arent 12000 application on file for every major airline in the us. 

Not only that, but most airlines around the world arent clamoring to hire expats either.

The only shortage is with airlines like the regionals here in the states.

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10 minutes ago, ahsmatt7 said:

Tell me there is a pilot shortage when there arent 12000 application on file for every major airline in the us. 

Not only that, but most airlines around the world arent clamoring to hire expats either.

The only shortage is with airlines like the regionals here in the states.

Oh, there's definitely a pilot shortage.  You don't to the top to see if there is a shortage you look at the base.  The base will tell you what's coming down the road. Flight schools are hard pressed for intructors, as anyone who has ratings is quickly moving on to Part 135 operators for a year, after that a regional is snatching them up.  A year after that they are applying and getting accepted are Legacy's without ANY turbine PIC. Never ever having sat in the left seat of any aircraft since the time they got their CFI.  This is all unhearz of in the industry.  So yes. There is a pilot shortage, yes it has been routinely reported on, no one in the know is actually denying it.  It's only getting started to.  It's going to speed up over the next 5 years.

As to what caused this.  Such a long explanation and a lot of deducing.  But if you really want to narrow down the field I would look at the management of these regional airlines and the driving force of the Legacy's for cheaper and cheaper contractors. They started the race to the bottom and now it's time to reap what you sow.  That's just my honest opinion though.

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I believe that a big factor is the high cost of entry - 4-year degree, followed by 10s of thousands of dollars for training and licensing, then maybe a low paying job for years before getting on with one of the regional carriers who also don't pay much.

This is a result of the price wars between the airlines which followed deregulation.  The benefit is that millions of people can now afford to take a flight.  The downside is, in my opinion, that quality has suffered greatly, which is why I haven't flown commercially in almost 10 years and don't ever plan to again if I can help it.

Dave

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Mario hit the nail on the head.  No one wants to pay the equivalent of becoming an MD, and then get stuck with a low salary for the majority of your career (there are exceptions, of course).  Airlines are now offering to pay for the flight school to get people in the door.  That's not without problems either, of course.  They're requiring you to basically front the cost, and then reimburse you in installments after.  
Take JetBlue's gateway program.  Sure, you can skip the regionals and go directly to a major, however you have to be able to pluck $125,000.00 from the money tree and float it for a few years while training.

Or take a look at the Epic-Ameriflight gateway program.  It's a better deal than Jetblue's in my opinion, but you still have to front approximately $53,000.00.  That will get you a chance to go to Ameriflight flying boxes, and then Ameriflight has a flow thru program with UPS. 

Of course those aren't the only options, but either way, you're going to be shelling out a lot of money with no meaningful return for a long time.

Me personally, I got my private back in 2008, and worked on advanced ratings.  I used to want to go to the airlines, but I realized that once my hobby would become work, then I'd probably start to hate it.  Now I have a successful career where I'm home every night, get better pay, and can fly when I want to, where I want to, with who I want to.  And still enjoy it!

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    If the pilot shortage is indeed expected to become critical in a few years,  then I believe airlines world-wide will just have to caugh-up their own the money for training those men and woman who have the both the aptitude and desire to become commercial pilots.  Along with this radical change, much higher starting pay scales will have to also be in the offering.

   Airlines can keep decreasing leg room to add more seats, but that won't help too much if there's no one sitting in the cockpit seat🙄       

 

 

   

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It will sort it`s self out in the long run another airline went belly up only a few days ago pilots out of a job.

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Hi Folks,

A buddy of mine from the airport - a 68 year old retired elevator mechanic GA pilot with 1200 hours - just got picked up by the FEDEX Feeder in the Northeast - - - flying G1000 equipped Caravans between Dulles and Newark... His first commercial gig - nothing against him - but due to his age it seems to show they need pilots pretty bad right now...

Regards,

Scott 

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24 minutes ago, scottb613 said:

but due to his age it seems to show they need pilots pretty bad right now...

How would you feel if the pilot was 70 and had 25,000 hours? 🙂

 

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3 hours ago, ACR said:

Or take a look at the Epic-Ameriflight gateway program.  It's a better deal than Jetblue's in my opinion, but you still have to front approximately $53,000.00.  That will get you a chance to go to Ameriflight flying boxes, and then Ameriflight has a flow thru program with UPS. 

Ameriflight has a flow thru for Omni, Allegiant (Both are complete jokes of a flow thru.  Omni for one just got bought by ATSG) and Frontier.  UPS is a gateway which is nothing more than a glorified interview process.  But now you are trying to compete with people that have heavy turbine PIC and international time and all you have is a bit of turbo prop time.  It might pay off in a few years and by few I mean atleast 5.  But right now thats hardly a reason to go there.

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19 hours ago, fppilot said:

When my low draft number of 70 captured me in 1970,

Military paid for my education and flight training. One year out of flight school I had 1,500 hours and when I left active duty after six years of flying I had almost 5,000 hours.  Over half of my flight time was either night or IMC. 

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Posted (edited)

There is a myriad of reasons as to why airlines are where they are now and the trouble they face looking forward. The reasons also vary geographically.
As has always been the case it is a simple matter of supply versus demand. Historically there has always been an over supply of pilots. Over the years pay and conditions have eroded and many pilots left the airlines, especially those that got regularly furloughed or had to tough it out for a long time on the tail end of a seniority list. Budget carriers started the race to the bottom of the barrel and this had an affect on premium carriers. The lure of mega airline start ups like Emirates, Etihad and Qatar, that offered good pay and early jet commands sucked many pilots from around the globe. To this day they still take many young pilots that are disillusioned by their local operators slow career prospects.
The true pilot shortage is masked by an increasing retirement age. When I started it was 50 then 55 then 58 followed by 60 and now 65 years of age. There is speculation that the FAA may be pressured into increasing this age limit yet again and if so ICAO will follow suit. That may ease things a little but not as much as it did with previous retirement age hikes. If you have had "skin in the game" for a while then just getting to 65 can be an issue. Many of my colleagues are retiring before 65 and quite a few others forced to do so due to medical issues. Holding down a class 1 medical after 65 can be an issue. At best the increased retirement age (even if it is removed altogether) would only slow the inevitable down by 2 or 3 years max imho. The retirement age has a huge affect on airlines with seniority systems in place. A pilot leaving from the top means that many pilots below will be shifting seats and this is a huge drain on training resources that could be used for training new hires. 
The Asian aviation expansion will have a huge effect. Their pilot supply is traditionally ex military pilots but the military wont want to see it's ranks depleted so where will their pilots come from and who will train them and who will pay for it?
But on the other side of the coin there is the next GFC which, looking at the overheated states of many of the worlds economy's, is probably just around the corner. It is predicted to be significantly bigger than the last and with no tools left in the tool box to fix it (because they are still in use from the last one) will linger on for much longer. The airlines will be hit very hard in which case pilot supply will be the least of their worries..

Edited by cowpatz
Sentence structure

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GFC? Is that an acronym for "Global Financial Collapse"?

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