This theory paints the flight crew as heroes, which is something many seem to be overlooking

 

I'd like to hear that pilots were heroes, but this theory has some weak points. Transponders and ACARS are switched off some time before last transmision. If they were on fire - there would be no "Alright. Good night." 30min after both engines are switched off, but "Mayday! Mayday!"

 

Someone on PPRUNE explained last night - there is a visible difference between ACARS being switching off deliberately(there is a logg off process)and ACARS sudden loss of transmition(in case of failure). Apparently, this is why officials are so sure about someone in cockpit acting deliberately.

 

There is a problem also with that "Alright. Good night." I remember well that is reported as "roger that. Good night." first time, and lot of people commented about how this sounds "so military". After couple of days is changed to "Alright. Good night." 

 

About altitude changes(FL450 and so), they are not sure about that. Not confirmed, unlikely.

 

But take a look at this theory: 

http://keithledgerwood.tumblr.com/post/79838944823/did-malaysian-airlines-370-disappear-using-sia68

 

 

I think Bill's point about what was the actual conversation that ended with "Alright" Goodnight" is pertinant.

What was alright? What tone of voice was used? Of course he should have signed off with the callsign, but if there was some kind of emergency unfolding the PO would clearly be distracted by that especially as he was new. So the lack of callsign acknowledgement could be explained.

 

I think he (as I do too) would like to know the context of the instruction. Was it something like

 

Control - Malaysian 370 Contact Vietnamese Center 118.35

 

MH370 - Over to 118.35 Malaysian 370 Alright Good Night.

 

or

 

MH370- Malaysian 370 Alright Good Night

 

or

 

MH370 - Alright Good Night

 

If the latter that would be a non standard response and could have been an attempt by the Copilot (As it looks he made the transmission) to indicate a problem to ATC.

I'm sorry guys, but your over thinking this "Alright, Good night" jargon to much.  Take it from someone who has been flying professionally for 8 years.  It happens...truth be told they guy could have been halfway thru eating a burger or something and was just making a quick reply.  Or it was 1 or 2 am?  The radios are quite, everything is more lax...etiquette would be more lax also.  I've been guilty of signing off along these lines.  Every pilot is.

 

Brian

I'm sorry guys, but your over thinking this "Alright, Good night" jargon to much.  Take it from someone who has been flying professionally for 8 years.  It happens...truth be told they guy could have been halfway thru eating a burger or something and was just making a quick reply.  Or it was 1 or 2 am?  The radios are quite, everything is more lax...etiquette would be more lax also.  I've been guilty of signing off along these lines.  Every pilot is.

 

Brian

I agree, in night shifts just about everyone is in "laxed" mode...it is nearly 2AM...it does happen.

 

I am not going with the hijack/suicide theory. They happen to make a statement. The statement is missing here, no matter where I look. As for trying to get a hold of an airliner, you would think a freighter would be a more attractive target, particularly since the region is full of them.

 

I just hope it is found soon.

The latest reports I have read state that it's unclear if the transponder and ACARS was off before the last transmission - there seems to be some backtracking on that point.

I'm sorry guys, but your over thinking this "Alright, Good night" jargon to much. Take it from someone who has been flying professionally for 8 years. It happens...truth be told they guy could have been halfway thru eating a burger or something and was just making a quick reply. Or it was 1 or 2 am? The radios are quite, everything is more lax...etiquette would be more lax also. I've been guilty of signing off along these lines. Every pilot is.

 

Brian

I don't think you can declare the last transmission something or nothing yet. We don't have the radio transcript so there just is not enough information known about the last communications yet. Even the initially released information gets contradicted later, so you really don't know the timeline and context of that last blurb to declare it one way or another at this point.

I've been guilty of signing off along these lines.  Every pilot is.

 

And to add to that it is more often than not that the two of them have had other exchanges and are familiar with each others voices.  And if the channel has been otherwise quiet for some time they may be the only ones talking.  And it may be the only handoff on that freq that happened in a fair amount of time.  Should not be that casual, but it happens all the time.  What was the hour of the night.........

 

"136 foxtrot papa, please contact Cleveland center on 121 point 8."  

 

"121 point 8, good night then"

This (timeline) may be getting cleaned up into something more concrete.  Hope turning it all over to the US and UK will accelerate the investigation.

 

http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/15/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-flight-370-chronology/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

I don't trust anything the Prime Minister is saying at this point.

 

Give it, and the paranoia theories, a rest. We all know how CNN feeds on this stuff, the two Iraq wars were probably the most profitable ventures in its history.

 

Give the shock and awe a rest; there's enough Fascism and state terrorism in the world already.

 

Some poor people died, a plane tragically went down, news at 11, then hey what about the NCAA Tournament, pretty awesome, eh? And which do you think will be best when it releases soon: Milviz's Phantom, Aerosoft's Tomcat or A2A's Cherokee? That's what is real, here. And the death of a bunch of people and the crash of a commercial airliner. Period.

 

Or you could sit and parse this story every minute of every day and wind yourself up into a paranoid frenzy; your choice. But if you do, you're just feeding the news vampires exactly what they want.

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

I don't trust anything the Prime Minister is saying at this point.

 

Give it, and the paranoia theories, a rest. We all know how CNN feeds on this stuff, the two Iraq wars were probably the most profitable ventures in its history.

 

Give the shock and awe a rest; there's enough Fascism and state terrorism in the world already.

 

Some poor people died, a plane tragically went down, news at 11, then hey what about the NCAA Tournament, pretty awesome, eh? And which do you think will be best when it releases soon: Milviz's Phantom, Aerosoft's Tomcat or A2A's Cherokee? That's what is real, here. And the death of a bunch of people and the crash of a commercial airliner. Period.

 

Or you could sit and parse this story every minute of every day and wind yourself up into a paranoid frenzy; your choice. But if you do, you're just feeding the news vampires exactly what they want.

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

I don't trust what anyone is saying at this point, especially the 'mainstream' Media. Also, they have started to data mine PPRuNe and A.net for source material.

 

You think it's getting thick here, just remember... PPRuNe and A.net have a week's head start on AVSIM. Every single scenario posted here has been debated and cross debated a hundred times over, and re-posted again. With 8,000+ posts, there's bound to be repetition.

Can someone answer this... 

 

Don't know if its been brought up but interesting theory came out yesterday that MH370 last known radar contact was very close to SA68 tracking along P628. Plausible theory that MH370 shadowed SA68 flying north to evade radar contact

 

http://keithledgerwood.tumblr.com/post/79838944823/did-malaysian-airlines-370-disappear-using-sia68-sq68

 

My main question with his theory can a T7 receive TA info with Tcas with xpndr off?

 

In order that MH370 could shadow SA68 without alerting SA's TCAS system

 

Looked up SA68 track on flightradar24.com at 1815 UTC on 3/7/2014 and was very close to MH370. Also, MH370 last alt was 29,500 and SA68 was FL300

What's the old saying, idle hands make the Devil's Workshop?

 

Never truer than it is these days.  You'd think people would have something more useful, or interesting to do.

 

Ah but then...... Twitter. Oh well.

 

I don't mind useful or interesting speculation by people simply interested in the procedural, physics or engineering problems (as long as they're not giving anything important away in public); but the paranoid scenario-painting is just sheer emo hysteria.  It serves no purpose and feeds right into the hands of those who'd love to have everyone in a constant state of panic, fear and terror.

 

There are a lot of other things in life: sympathy, enthusiasm, rational interest, fellowship, music, and... flight simming!  I prefer just thinking about those.

 

And so... that's the end of my participation in threads about MH370.  And since I don't vacation summers in fancy places on the Black Sea... the Crimea and Ukraine matter naught as well.

I don't mind useful or interesting speculation by people simply interested in the procedural, physics or engineering problems (as long as they're not giving anything important away in public); but the paranoid scenario-painting is just sheer emo hysteria.  It serves no purpose and feeds right into the hands of those who'd love to have everyone in a constant state of panic, fear and terror.

 

Private Pilot Instrument rated and flight simmer for decades....noboby thought 9/11 was possible on 9/10.....The theory matches up with the known facts and if true would be used again....this isn't motivated by curiosity but possibly preventing even more tragedy

 

BTW have been discussing theory on CNN today.....been tweeting them constantly last 24 hrs since I originally read Keith Ledgers theory

Can someone answer this...

 

My main question with his theory can a T7 receive TA info with Tcas with xpndr off?

 

No. The transponder and tcas are essentially one and the same piece of equipment on the plane. If you turn off the transponder, you turn off the tcas. You can turn off the tcas functions while keeping the transponder working. But you cannot turn off the transponder without turning pff the tcas. The switch goes from off->stby->xpdr->tcas

 

So this blows the guy's theory out of the water, but of course, you really don't need tcas to fly formation with another aircraft.

 

 

No. The transponder and tcas are essentially one and the same piece of equipment on the plane. If you turn off the transponder, you turn off the tcas. You can turn off the tcas functions while keeping the transponder working. But you cannot turn off the transponder without turning pff the tcas. The switch goes from off->stby->xpdr->tcas

 

Thanks for the response..That is what I was thinking....Did read in stby mode tcas computer is on for grd (taxing in fog) operation but not sure if has to be in ta mode to c other planes...Only other possibility waited till out of range of atc radar....turned on tcas for short bursts and maybe spotted SA68 beacon visually....but thats getting too far out there