Mathew S,

"My opinion is this... For me P3D is DEAD!  I will not spend another cent on P3D add-ons. Instead, if 3rd party developers want my money they should reposition themselves for FS2020, just like PMDG is doing.  3rd party developers should not kid themselves that they will still have a thriving P3D market.  As soon as FS2020 is released I think P3D sales will drop to just 5% of past levels.  Those developers who stick their heads in the sand will surely go under. 

Of course, this is all just my opinion."

I think, (my opinion) that this is very very short sighted to say the least.  If, all developers reposition themselves for MSFS2020 then, they would certainly kill off every other Sim platform, and, THAT is the least desirable thing for flightsimming.

Look at the history of flight simming.  FSX was going to kill FS2004 and all before it.  FS2004 is still being used by a small percentage of simmers. I would add that it very probably is not the primary platform but, it is still being flown.

P3dv4 (64bit) was going to kill FSX and all before it.  Look at the statistics and you will find that it is still being used on a daily basis.

FSW was going to revolutionize flightsimming.. Well, as we all know, that did not quite happen. 

Aeroflyfs2 and DCS are still thriving to differing degrees.  These are all platforms currently being used and it is anybodys' guess which is being used as a primary platform, but I will put money on the fact ,that a LOT of people are still flying the ancient and modern sims concurrently.

 Looking ahead to the introduction to MSFS2020 and nominating it as the only platform of the future is, in my book, just lacking a little in logic.  NO OFFENCE meant here.

I state this, mainly because, very few people (other than developers) know, just what the next iteration of P3D or XPlane is going to offer.  MSFS/Osobo, at this time, to be honest, Looks superb in every lovely aspect and I believe all of us are looking forward to its release. The other two biggies, however, may well release something just as good AND, given their alleged desire to stay in business, I can only assume that their offerings will at least come close.  (we simply do not know and nobody is telling us in quite the same way as MSFS/Osobo is doing)  That is quite an understatement LOL

I must stress, that we, as a community, should be doing, exactly what we are currently doing. Offering our ideas and encouragement to MSFS, believing that Lockheed Martin and Xplane are watching it all extremely closely.  

As I stated in the post previously mentioned by France89, We have a great Flightsim future to contemplate and we should not really be wallowing in negativity.

In conclusion, despite quoting you, Mathews, this is intended to be a general comment.

Regards

Tony

34 minutes ago, himmelhorse said:

I think, (my opinion) that this is very very short sighted to say the least.  If, all developers reposition themselves for MSFS2020 then, they would certainly kill off every other Sim platform, and, THAT is the least desirable thing for flightsimming.

FS2020 is a revolutionary advance... it's not simply an evolution of what we had.

If those other platforms (P3D and XP) can make similar advances then I'd be happy to support them.

However, it's clear to me, that no-one (not P3D, not XP, not Aerofly) are going to be able to match what we have seen from Asobo for a long time, if ever. My understanding is that Asobo has already spent 2 years working on FS2020.

Also, I'd say it's actually better for Flightsimming if 3rd party developers focus exclusively on the best platform (ie FS2020) to maximise the consumers choice of add-ons for that platform (ie FS2020).

IMO it will happen anyway. The market will naturally settle with 90% of all add-ons being produced exclusively for FS2020 because the P3D market will dry up as the vast majority of P3D users migrate to FS2020.  I also believe that P3D will see almost no new users, because no new user is going to pick P3D when FS2020 is on offer.

Edited November 17, 20196 yr by MatthewS

While I don't think we should be celebrating anyone potentially losing jobs or livelihood (though I also question how imminent this supposedly would be because of MSFS), I also don't think purchasing decisions should be made with the intent of essentially charitably trying to keep everyone gainfully employed.  The people who made stuff as a hobby will be just fine.  The people who make stuff and sell it for money are doing business, and staying in business means adapting to changes in the market.

Assuming MSFS is the real deal as a sim, I assume you'll see most add-on creators shift priorities to it, followed by varying levels of support for P3d, XP, etc.  MSFS is not going to be a flawless rendering of the planet in all it's detail, nor will it have every plane on earth, which leaves plenty of opening for reasonably priced third-party add-ons.  If anything, it gives a lot of these people the opportunity to re-package, re-master, and re-sell their previous work for a new platform

Sims like XP will be forced to up their game to try and compete, which is a win for everyone.  Lockheed Martin probably don't care THAT much about recreational P3D use.

If MSFS is fantastic, we should be nothing but ecstatic about that - not treating it like a funeral dirge for any potential third parties that suddenly became obsolete.  Also, keep in mind that MSFS will probably be lacking some features and stuff that more "mature" sims have (natively or via third party), simply due to having been around for years, so I doubt everyone is just going to up and abandon their sim of choice the day MSFS comes out.

A wise person follows what is written in Genesis 41:34-36. I have to do this too as nobody will support me during a bad year when I may not have any income.

3rd party developers will, hopefully, reap the benefit in a big time when the new sim becomes available. In the meantime, I hope they are part of the "Tech Alpha" or are in touch with Asobo/Microsoft and therefore have access to the SDK probably 10 months before the product reaches the "shelves" and can be ready to sell addons straight away.

30 minutes ago, siggy said:

Genesis 41:34-36

Thanks, I better get my act together.

Edited November 17, 20196 yr by MatthewS

32 minutes ago, siggy said:

A wise person follows what is written in Genesis 41:34-36. I have to do this too as nobody will support me during a bad year when I may not have any income.

3rd party developers will, hopefully, reap the benefit in a big time when the new sim becomes available. In the meantime, I hope they are part of the "Tech Alpha" or are in touch with Asobo/Microsoft and therefore have access to the SDK probably 10 months before the product reaches the "shelves" and can be ready to sell addons straight away.

Good point. To me that highlights part of software (or pretty much any other product) pricing that some people don't or wont see, or don't care about.

Many, or probably most of these developers are small businesses. Their bills don't stop when their sales stop and employing staff increases costs massively over and above those of a one man band working from home. Highly likely that some of them have already seen sales drop to a point where they are almost meaningless but still need to be supported. If their cashflow wasn't already in a good place then they could very easily and very quickly find themselves in a position where they just have to close, or at least lay off staff.

When they do (I hope) emerge from the other side with a shiny new product, a good portion of that early revenue will need to be offset against many months of low income and another buffer built up to allow them to survive the next "FS2020". However is does bring lots of new opportunities and "survival of the fittest" is often a good thing.

So yes I do spare them a thought, but it's not much more than a thought as they've already earned my money. What I will most definitely do is, when I see their pricing, take into account the rollercoaster ride that pretty much all small businesses experience before boldly stating that they are a rip-off.

Written by a small business owner (software) who is clearly not biased in any way, shape or form 😉

Mike, stop stirring the pot already. 

4 hours ago, siggy said:

3rd party developers will, hopefully, reap the benefit in a big time when the new sim becomes available.

I am really looking forward to seeing what great new products 3rd party developers can offer in the new platform.

1 hour ago, MikeT707 said:

I am really looking forward to seeing what great new products 3rd party developers can offer in the new platform.

You may have a long wait....and there, in a nutshell, is the crux of the problem: the absence of an MSFS2020 SDK. Developers find themselves powerless to prepare/defend their position as they have not been provided with the means to get on with the job. Yet they, like the rest of us, are witnessing all the gorgeous imagery that is persuading significant numbers of users to withdraw their support by changing their purchasing profiles. Moreover, this is happening at a time when we are given to understand that the sim has not even reached the alpha stage of development. That, to me, speaks aggressive and unfair marketing and might be interpreted as being an example of sharp practice. Kill off the competition while they are powerless to respond.

Regards,

Mike

Edited November 17, 20196 yr by Cruachan

I suppose that this is just how it is. Happens all the time. Film photography to digital to smartphones. VCR to DVD to Bluray to stream. Record/tape to CD to MP3. And the potentially earth shattering changes looming in the car industry.

Millions of people lose their jobs to technological "progress" all the time. If I want to run a successful software company, then hoping for an age old SDK/API specification to support my business forever is unrealistic. If that is all that I can do, then I will go under eventually. And that happens every day too.

We have a time of big changes ahead in the flightsim world. Nobody ever said that changes are good for everyone.

Best regards

Edited November 17, 20196 yr by Lorby_SI

Watch the Nov. 16th FSElite interview from the 14’ mark. Redmont is discussing with 60 3PD companies. Enough said.

35 minutes ago, Lorby_SI said:

I suppose that this is just how it is. Happens all the time. Film photography to digital to smartphones. VCR to DVD to Bluray to stream. Record/tape to CD to MP3. And the potentially earth shattering changes looming in the car industry.

Millions of people lose their jobs to technological "progress" all the time. If I want to run a successful software company, then hoping for an age old SDK/API specification to support my business forever is unrealistic. If that is all that I can do, then I will go under eventually. And that happens every day too.

We have a time of big changes ahead in the flightsim world. Nobody ever said that changes are good for everyone.

Best regards

I like that sober attitude.

 

I hope to see some of your addons in MSFS. 😉

 

25 minutes ago, domkle said:

Watch the Nov. 16th FSElite interview from the 14’ mark. Redmont is discussing with 60 3PD companies. Enough said.

You may have noted ORBX sponsored FSELITE the visit to XO19. This may say a bit, given the only flightsim on display there is MFS.

Kind regards, Michael

6 minutes ago, pmb said:

You may have noted ORBX sponsored FSELITE the visit to XO19. This may say a bit, given the only flightsim on display there is MFS.

Kind regards, Michael

I noted that, Michael,  and found it kinda weird thinking of the apparent surliness of the mods at their forums or the boss, when you mention the new sim. The situation is certainly not easy to handle with some nutty postings but they do not send good vibes ! 

51 minutes ago, domkle said:

Watch the Nov. 16th FSElite interview from the 14’ mark. Redmont is discussing with 60 3PD companies.

Hi Dominique,

Really?! Very good news.....if true. Can any of those Developers confirm or would they be bound to silence by an NDA? I know of at least one major hitter who is still waiting with baited breath so, at this point, forgive me if I remain a little sceptical.

Regards.

Mike