Yet another "I've not a clue but I'll make stuff up!" thread... yay!

2 hours ago, WarpD said:

Yet another "I've not a clue but I'll make stuff up!" thread... yay!

I think there is nothing wrong with a thread trying to analyze anything related to the product... It is not labeled as official news (otherwise it would be labeled fake news). So why not?

Analyzing is something even professional reporters do in economy, politics and world matters. They have no real info but they can have a clue. Using some common sense, known similar situations and sometimes the past, we can predicts the future in similar cases right?

So there is nothing wrong about analyzing anything related to this project as long as it is labeled as such and here I think it is.

Edited May 24, 20206 yr by Claviateur

Well, let's do some quick maths.

Asobo has, say, 100 development staff on MSFS, at an average of €45k* and has been working on this for 4 years.

= €18 million

Ignoring MS Game Pass, MSFS might cost €60. 

18,000,000 / 60 = 300k copies to break even.

FSX Steam edition sold a reported 600k copies, so 300k looks pretty achievable.

Of course if we factor in Game pass subscriptions, residual percentage cut from sales of DLC, and licensing of the underlying technology, it looks a pretty attractive business for a game studio to be in.

* Before someone says "but developers earn $120k+". Yes, they do in California, not in Bordeaux.

Edited May 25, 20206 yr by nickhod

In the past, Microsoft has funded the launch of a new sim product, only to shut it down again because of budget requirements for further development... hope not this time, but keep that in mind.. 😉

18 minutes ago, Bert Pieke said:

In the past, Microsoft has funded the launch of a new sim product, only to shut it down again because of budget requirements for further development... hope not this time, but keep that in mind.. 😉

It had too many issues in attracting a userbase due to its missing features and sparse amount of content at launch, the new content was being rolled out too slowly (it didn't help that they totally locked out third-party developers), and it also aligned with the GFWL programme, to which it had a very tight integration, being retired. The new simulator will not be doomed to failure like that from the start. It has already attracted lots of general attention thanks to its revolutionary visuals.

8 hours ago, Stratocruiser1 said:

Not seeing any light yet.

Always takes a little longer for you Air Force guys... 😉   Navy here.

 

This sim is multi-platform so they've already created two separate sources for revenue. And keep in mind MS is using the new sim to showcase the ability of the new Xbox. I assume they're confident that they'll convert a lot of PC users over to the new Xbox with the promise of getting max performance without spending thousands of dollars upgrading your PC.

16 hours ago, highflyer2020 said:

2. Allowing 3rd party devs to created payware for FS2020 and sell it via the Windows Store for which MS will get a small percentage. I imagine this will be tempting for some as it means they don't need to spend money on their own market place or investing heavily in DRM to protect their products from pirates. 

That's what I am stating for months. So yes, I agree. 😄

Other games went free to play in favor of that strategy. If you have a loyal and willing-to-pay userbase, this is a gauranteed cashcow. That's the case with simming.

Platforms like x-plane.org seemingly making good profit. It's a good decision by MS to milk that cow.

3 hours ago, YVRDXBLHR said:

This sim is multi-platform so they've already created two separate sources for revenue. And keep in mind MS is using the new sim to showcase the ability of the new Xbox. I assume they're confident that they'll convert a lot of PC users over to the new Xbox with the promise of getting max performance without spending thousands of dollars upgrading your PC.

That's untrue. No 'official' (meaning actual announcements or PR) sources have actually stated it's coming to the Xbox Series X. We don't even know when the game is due on the Xbox yet. 

Edited May 25, 20206 yr by shawty1984

Quoting from the original post-- "

From Wikipedia: Where implemented, a franchisor licenses its know-how, procedures, intellectual property, use of its business model, brand, and rights to sell its branded products and services to a franchisee.

In this instance, I am assuming ASOBO became the franchisee. A fresh approach was necessary and their submitted proof of concept demonstrated what was possible using currently available modern cutting edge technologies. " 

That assumption is incorrect, as ASOBO is a developer for MSFS, not a franchisee.

Also, as ASOBO is a multi platform & multi game developer, I'm sure that all their costs are amortized amongst all their products. Is it important to us? Not at all.

We, the gamers/consumers have choices to suit or needs.. do we buy in to Xbox consoles, stick & upgrade or PC's (how I dislike the word 'rig', not sure why) or use both. I most certainly hope that5 3rd party developers are not limited to the Xbox store.. 

12 hours ago, WarpD said:

Yet another "I've not a clue but I'll make stuff up!" thread... yay!

It doesn't take a lot of  intelligence to make an educated guess to answer the question OP posted if you think that's too much for you then feel free to not post anything next time and let everyone else discuss. 

10 hours ago, nickhod said:

 

Asobo has, say, 100 development staff on MSFS, at an average of €45k* and has been working on this for 4 years.

= €18 million

Ignoring MS Game Pass, MSFS might cost €60. 

18,000,000 / 60 = 300k copies to break even.

FSX Steam edition sold a reported 600k copies, so 300k looks pretty achievable.

* Before someone says "but developers earn $120k+". Yes, they do in California, not in Bordeaux.

I dont think your calculus Is entitely correct, not all 100 devs been working during 4 years, i guess the team grew in size upon time.

Absolutely Bordeaux Is not LA in compensation terms, however i dont think all make 45k each.

FSX stream reported 600k copies sales but now there are much more gamers and much more games available too.

Just doing some quick math, i guess the game cost 10 million and let say It will coverage availability for 10 years.

I estimate 50k players the First year and then i Will estimate 20k new players each year and that Is around 300k copies.

10 million / 300k users = $33

With the server usage, expect this game to cost around $70.

1 hour ago, mp15 said:

I estimate 50k players the First year and then i Will estimate 20k new players each year

What??? Make at least 500k sales the first week!

mp15.. You in marketing & sales, & have experience in game marketing? Or any idea of real cost of server usage?

50k players in the 1st year? Mmmm, Xbox has in excess of 65 million monthly users? so, your annual 50k sales equates to 4200 sales of MSFS per month?

Back to the drawing board, or calculator, I suggest.

FSX sold 1 million copies in the first two years according to GameSpot article written on 4 Dec 2009.