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Terrydew

P3D taking over by year end

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The guys at Orbx are projecting at the current growth rate that over 85% of their customers will be on P3D V3 by year end. I knew it was growing but not that fast. I think that is great as its showing forward movement.

 

Terry

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I wonder how DTG's flight sim will hit these figures when more news becomes available. The lack of compatibility might keep people on P3D for sometime yet

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I wonder how DTG's flight sim will hit these figures when more news becomes available. The lack of compatibility might keep people on P3D for sometime yet

I too thought about that yesterday.  I realized that I have quite a few clams invested in P3D right now, coupled with the fact that I have just about set P3D exactly where I want it and I don't have any technical issues with flight.  I am still curious as to how DTG's sim will compare, but I have a very funny feeling it won't. I DO however feel that DTG's sim will ultimately replace FSX:SE.

 

-Jim

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"The guys at Orbx" is John Venema, the CEO.  I'm not sure 85% is strictly correct, however.  I have a feeling that a lot of P3D users will have dual installations with FSX and P3D running on the same rig, since many aircraft that run on FSX don't on P3D, for whatever reasons.  Which means FSX, while it will eventually not be the sim of choice, will still hang around for quite awhile.

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I too thought about that yesterday.  I realized that I have quite a few clams invested in P3D right now, coupled with the fact that I have just about set P3D exactly where I want it and I don't have any technical issues with flight.  I am still curious as to how DTG's sim will compare, but I have a very funny feeling it won't. I DO however feel that DTG's sim will ultimately replace FSX:SE.

 

-Jim

 

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"The guys at Orbx" is John Venema, the CEO.  I'm not sure 85% is strictly correct, however.  I have a feeling that a lot of P3D users will have dual installations with FSX and P3D running on the same rig, since many aircraft that run on FSX don't on P3D, for whatever reasons.  Which means FSX, while it will eventually not be the sim of choice, will still hang around for quite awhile.

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I have a feeling that a lot of P3D users will have dual installations with FSX and P3D running on the same rig, since many aircraft that run on FSX don't on P3D, for whatever reasons. Which means FSX, while it will eventually not be the sim of choice, will still hang around for quite awhile.

 

And I have a feeling you only think that because you still have FSX running on the same rig... :wink: I don't: I deleted FSX the day I got P3D and I have a feeling most people who moved to P3D don't have FSX anymore. But we will never know this for sure until someone does a thorough investigation on this. :wink:

 

But anyway, I think we should take care not to misunderstand Venema (like some or most of you seem to do): he is not talking about "P3D users" like you do but about his "customers". And that's a totally different story. I do think that apart from simmers and seriously interested PC pilots most of the FSX users have never ever heard of P3D. (Or Orbx for that matter.) Which means FSX is here to stay for quite some time. And it will have far more users worldwide than P3D for quite some time too. Maybe DTG's upcoming sim (not the school) could become a contender for the flightsim crown because it is being released as a game so regular FSX users will hear about it too, unlike P3D. Time will tell.

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The guys at Orbx are projecting at the current growth rate that over 85% of their customers will be on P3D V3 by year end. I knew it was growing but not that fast. I think that is great as its showing forward movement.

 

Terry

That percentage means nothing without context.  I could increase my customer base from 1 to 2 and report a 100% growth.  The 85% growth is probably more indicative of P3D current low market share.  Every metric available indicates FSX and FSX SE still dominate the marketplace; AVSIMs own annual survey reflects a 8 to 1 market share.  DeltaVA (2500 pilots) publishes their stats and show 75% of  ACARS flights are flown using FSX/SE, FS2004 10%, and P3D 7%. DG has two distinctive advantage over LM.  First, a much larger indented audience; second, a  distribution platform with millions of registered users (i.e. STEAM).  I can't imagine P3D ever eclipsing DG, nor do I believe they view DG as a competitor...

And I have a feeling you only think that because you still have FSX running on the same rig... :wink: I don't: I deleted FSX the day I got P3D and I have a feeling most people who moved to P3D don't have FSX anymore. But we will never know this for sure until someone does a thorough investigation on this. :wink:

 

But anyway, I think we should take care not to misunderstand Venema (like some or most of you seem to do): he is not talking about "P3D users" like you do but about his "customers". And that's a totally different story. I do think that apart from simmers and seriously interested PC pilots most of the FSX users have never ever heard of P3D. (Or Orbx for that matter.) Which means FSX is here to stay for quite some time. And it will have far more users worldwide than P3D for quite some time too. Maybe DTG's upcoming sim (not the school) could become a contender for the flightsim crown because it is being released as a game so regular FSX users will hear about it too, unlike P3D. Time will tell.

wish I would of waited 5 min before posting....you articulated my thoughts precisely....

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That percentage means nothing without context.  I could increase my customer base from 1 to 2 and report a 100% growth.


Orbx isn't reporting a rate, they're reporting a volume.

85% of their customer base is significant, especially considering how many FS users over the years to whom they've likely catered.
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That percentage means nothing without context.  I could increase my customer base from 1 to 2 and report a 100% growth.  The 85% growth is probably more indicative of P3D current low market share.  Every metric available indicates FSX and FSX SE still dominate the marketplace; AVSIMs own annual survey reflects a 8 to 1 market share.  DeltaVA (2500 pilots) publishes their stats and show 75% of  ACARS flights are flown using FSX/SE. DG has two distinctive advantage over LM.  First, a much larger indented audience; second, a  distribution platform with millions of registered users (i.e. STEAM).  I can't imagine P3D ever eclipsing DG, nor do I believe they view DG as a competitor...

wish I would of waited 5 min before posting....you articulated my thoughts precisely....

The context is in the original post. It is projected "based on current growth rate" to be 85% of Orbx customers "by year end" which I think would include most serious simers. Those are the ones the developers pay attention to. I would love to know these numbers for say A2A or PMDG.

 

Terry

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...  DeltaVA (2500 pilots) publishes their stats and show 75% of  ACARS flights are flown using FSX/SE, FS2004 10%, and P3D 7%...

 

BAVirtual (1250 pilots) shows something like FS9/FSX 65.3%, P3D 31.3%, XP10 3.3% for March and I'm sure P3D willl have increased its share when we get the April figures.

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JV post was referring to his customers.

 

 

 


The context is in the original post. It is projected "based on current growth rate" to be 85% of Orbx customers "by year end" which I think would include most serious simers.

I agree first part of this comment and a couple previous posters above, JV's post should be taken in the context it was posted.

 

I am on P3D but still have a "basic" FSX setup. (Do I fit into both categories? and future DTG?)

FSX is here to stay for years to come.

 

Just an example: Two of my closest friends, who by the way have very complex FSX hardware and "semi pro" cockpits have never heard of AVSIM,or ORBX. They fly IVAO at least 3-4 times a week and one of them occasionally invites/brings his company pilots to his flights.

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"The guys at Orbx" is John Venema, the CEO.  I'm not sure 85% is strictly correct, however.  I have a feeling that a lot of P3D users will have dual installations with FSX and P3D running on the same rig, since many aircraft that run on FSX don't on P3D, for whatever reasons.  Which means FSX, while it will eventually not be the sim of choice, will still hang around for quite awhile.

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I do think that apart from simmers and seriously interested PC pilots most of the FSX users have never ever heard of P3D. (Or Orbx for that matter.)

 

....wait...WHAAAAAAT?

 

Dear Sir,

... then I guess that means that those self same users have their heads sunk as deeply in the proverbial sands, as you do.

 

Respectfully submitted,

 

Chas

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And I have a feeling you only think that because you still have FSX running on the same rig... :wink: I don't: I deleted FSX the day I got P3D and I have a feeling most people who moved to P3D don't have FSX anymore. But we will never know this for sure until someone does a thorough investigation on this. :wink:

 

But anyway, I think we should take care not to misunderstand Venema (like some or most of you seem to do): he is not talking about "P3D users" like you do but about his "customers". And that's a totally different story. I do think that apart from simmers and seriously interested PC pilots most of the FSX users have never ever heard of P3D. (Or Orbx for that matter.) Which means FSX is here to stay for quite some time. And it will have far more users worldwide than P3D for quite some time too. Maybe DTG's upcoming sim (not the school) could become a contender for the flightsim crown because it is being released as a game so regular FSX users will hear about it too, unlike P3D. Time will tell.

I am one of those who moved on from FSX boxed to FSX:SE and then P3D.  I currently fly only with P3D, despite the fact that not all content in the flight sim world is P3D compatible.  I still have all of my content for FSX, as do i still have the DVD of FSX boxed and the download is still available in Steam for FSX:SE, but I won't go back.  I am pleased as peaches to how P3D runs on my rig.  With v3.2, things have only gotten better.

 

I have a great respect for the ORBX team, and everything they have provided us so far.  They work hard and diligently to keep their products up to date and as compatible as possible.  Their recent official partnership with Dovetail is commendable, as they probably see that DTG will be around for a long time.  Their new sim coming out will be a defining moment and quite possible up the game to the competition to put out more powerful, detailed sims (I'm looking right at you Lockheed Martin).  Soon, 32-bit sims will be a thing of the past and that's a good thing.

 

This is an expensive hobby we have.

 

-Jim

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32-bit sims won't become a thing of the past until the hardware (read CPU and GPU) becomes available to run the 64-bit replacements, not that it won't happen, but it will be later rather than sooner.

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Its a context issue. Remember the is talking about their customers. Not the entire market. FSX Steam still has far more users than P3D does but they may not be active in the 3rd party addon community so they are not ORBX customers. The addon, 3rd party, patrons are reflected in his number and he projects that community will move up to a 85% clip. 

 

We have no idea about DTG's sim and what it will hold once 3rd party adoption comes about. So I wont add my conjecture as to the adoption rate for that platform until we know more. If it is indeed 64 bit, hardware optimized, and has the addons that I want, I dont see why P3D would still be an option unless something drastic happens at LM. It remains the best solution at the moment, but we will see what the future holds. 

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32-bit sims won't become a thing of the past until the hardware (read CPU and GPU) becomes available to run the 64-bit replacements, not that it won't happen, but it will be later rather than sooner.

 

For the rest of the industry, 32-bit is already a thing of the past. X-Plane moved to 64-bit years ago and most games released in the last few years are 64-bit as well.

64-bit P3D is primarily held back by the existing legacy ecosystem, although some backwards compatibility could certainly be retained. XML gauges, air files, cfg files etc. are not dependent on the architecture, only actual compiled code like plug-ins, dll's etc. are.  However many FSX/P3D addons rely on such external modules to extend the limited functionality of the sim, so it would break a lot of addons. It might be possible to write a "wrapper" to run 32-bit plugins within a 64-bit sim, but that alone would require a lot of work and might not be compatible with everything, defeating the purpose in the first place.

 

The way I see it, they're preparing for the move to 64-bit by getting everything else out of the way first (optimizations, bug fixes, modernized folder structure, modern rendering pathways etc.) so that they can focus on the 64-bit update in the future.

 

The DTG sim is indeed an unknown at this point. It could be a revolution, but it might just be FSX with a bit of spit shine.

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32-bit sims won't become a thing of the past until the hardware (read CPU and GPU) becomes available to run the 64-bit replacements

 

We already have 64 bit hardware it's been available for well over a decade, Xplane 10 has been 64bit since 2011, DCS World almost as long and both run very well on today's 64bit CPU's

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but it might just be FSX with a bit of spit shine.

 

Exactly and from what I have seen not as much shine as P3D all ready has - the minute I saw ORBX providing ground textures that sealed it for me - a bit more polished FSX is not my idea of a new wow simulator - I'll wait for a 64bit P3D 

 

More food for thought - my 32 bit P3D PMDG products will be updated to 64bit for P3D for free 

 

​DTG 64bit not free as far as I know

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a bit more polished FSX is not my idea of a new wow simulator

 

But that's all P3D is really and its still only 32bit

 

 

the minute I saw ORBX providing ground textures that sealed it for me

 

What textures are you running in P3D, Rich ?

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But that's all P3D is really and its still only 32bit

 

 

 

What textures are you running in P3D, Rich ?

 

64 is on its way my friend

 

Orbx global - hence my point - all ready have them 

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64 is on its way my friend

 

I would love to see some concrete evidence that supports that claim, and if it's really on it's way in what time scale can we expect to see it ?

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I would love to see some concrete evidence that supports that claim, and if it's really on it's way in what time scale can we expect to see it ?

 

You know I cant answer that  :wink:

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I wonder how he would know this? In other words, where the data comes from? If you get a new orbx product, it comes with a triple or quad installer. Does the installer send data back to orbx regarding your machine?

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