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Predictions regarding the launch of 2024...

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On 10/11/2024 at 6:42 PM, RobJC said:

So, what do you guys think? Is the launch going to be pretty smooth, a dumpster fire, or something in between? I am voting either it gets delayed or is a dumpster fire. I expect a lot of problems across the board and put a release delay at 50/50 right now. I am fine with them releasing it too early, because until it gets in enough user's hands issues won't get ironed out.  Super pumped about MSFS 2024 but I am a realist. No way this thing is ready in 5-6 weeks. Not in my opinion. I will be happy if the major issues are fixed by the end of the year. Long term this is going to be an amazing project (just like 2020) but patience is going to be a virtue. Great product. Awesome development team. Nothing but respect for these guys. 

Hoping for the best, but absolutely expecting the worst. 

MSFS2020 was smooth for most, so a betting man would also bet on MSFS2024 being smooth.

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  • Why such doubts before we even saw the product? Really wondering what you want to achieve with such a post. Relax, sit back, enjoy life. And when it‘s there and unplayable - feel free to complain. But

  • Gonna be like every other major release that is very backend server dependent. It'll launch, servers will get inadvertently DDoS'd due to a large and sudden influx of users, people will experience som

  • Predicting the outcome is pretty simple really.  MSFS2024 will launch in a state that will be plenty enjoyable for 99% of users, just like MSFS 2020 did.  It'll be one of the best-rated game

Just escaped the second hurricane in three weeks here in Jax, the rest of FL was not so lucky. Millions are still without power or homes here in FL and north of here. It's pretty interesting to read these posts and the hysterics surrounding a sub $200 piece of software (which spread out over 4 years equates to $.13 a day) and contrast that to what is going on the real world. As one who has been in the technology industry almost from the very beginning (Apple II) and who has an IRL PPL certificate, I am incredibly grateful Microsoft decided to restart this franchise again after so many years. And I am even more grateful they figured out a way to bring in much more revenue through the Xbox community so this product will flourish for years to come. If it isn't 100% polished on day one, it matters not one whit to me. I can tell how passionate the developers are for this product, and what a labor of love it must be for them to work on something so revolutionary. The bashing and negativity must be so disheartening for them.

Go Jags and Fins!

4 hours ago, MarcG said:

So in essence, the reason we might not get a beta, it's because they simply don't know how to run one properly and sufficiently enough.


Meh, that's your take I guess... given the various public betas they've run for SUs, AAUs, etc I'd say they quite well know how to run betas, and successfully so compared to before when they were not doing public betas at all. Just because they don't address *all* reported issues, or issues near and dear to specific users doesn't therefore mean they don't know to how run one "properly and sufficiently"
 

12 hours ago, RobJC said:

Is it true that Asobo/MS doesn’t have a bug reporting process setup for this alpha? Also, is there going to be an open beta before release? I have a ton of respect for these guys but i am trying to understand why there won’t be a beta before release? 

Did they run out of time to have a beta and still be able to fix issues before the calendar rolls over to 2025, putting the name “MSFS 2024” into question?


This is not an alpha in the traditional software sense.. read what they've actually said about this technical alpha, also read https://www.avsim.com/forums/topic/651117-predictions-regarding-the-launch-of-2024/?do=findComment&comment=5191131 (bottom line, this is not an alpha in the traditional sense, they're obviously well beyond traditional alpha and beta stages given the time left for release, they're not even really soliciting bug reports since this is a stress meant for online services, and they're getting the data they need from their server-side merely by users using this build)
 

Edited by lwt1971

Len
1980s: Sublogic FS II on C64 ---> 1990s: Flight Unlimited I/II, MSFS 95/98 ---> 2000s/2010s: FS/X, P3D, XP ---> 2020+: MSFS
Current system: i9 13900K, RTX 4090, 64GB DDR5 4800 RAM, 4TB NVMe SSD

2 minutes ago, lwt1971 said:

Meh, that's your take I guess... given the various public betas they've run for SUs, AAUs, etc I'd say they quite well know how to run betas, and successfully so compared to before when they were not doing public betas at all. Just because they don't address *all* reported issues, or issues near and dear to specific users doesn't therefore mean they don't know to how run one "properly and sufficiently"

It's got nothing to do with addressing "all" issues or personal gripes, you clearly didn't read what I wrote in its entirety.

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12 hours ago, RobJC said:

 

Is it true that Asobo/MS doesn’t have a bug reporting process setup for this alpha? Also, is there going to be an open beta before release? I have a ton of respect for these guys but i am trying to understand why there won’t be a beta before release? 

 

There is no “bug reporting” option, and no need for one. The purpose of this limited time alpha is solely to test the server infrastructure - nothing else. Each copy of the alpha sends telemetry back to Asobo automatically when it is in use, and Asobo gets all the data they need from that.

Jim Barrett

Licensed Airframe & Powerplant Mechanic, Avionics, Electrical & Air Data Systems Specialist. Qualified on: Falcon 900, CRJ-200, Dornier 328-100, Hawker 850XP and 1000, Lear 35, 45, 55 and 60, Gulfstream IV and 550, Embraer 135, Beech Premiere and 400A, MD-80.

  • Author
31 minutes ago, JRBarrett said:

There is no “bug reporting” option, and no need for one. The purpose of this limited time alpha is solely to test the server infrastructure - nothing else. Each copy of the alpha sends telemetry back to Asobo automatically when it is in use, and Asobo gets all the data they need from that.

Actually not true. They setup a sub forum so people can share their feedback. 

7950X3D | RTX 4090 | 96GB DDR5 | 4K G-Sync | Win11 Pro

Predicting the outcome is pretty simple really. 

MSFS2024 will launch in a state that will be plenty enjoyable for 99% of users, just like MSFS 2020 did. 

It'll be one of the best-rated games of the year with slew and 9s and 10s out of 10, and around 95 on Metacritic. Yet, it won't win many Game of the Year awards because simulators aren't visible enough to encourage gaming media outlets to give them that kind of award. It wouldn't get the kind of engagement awards are all about (for the outlets).

A small but very vocal minority will nonetheless throw at it all kinds of negativity, seeking every little detail to nitpick and calling Asobo all sorts of synonyms of incompetent. Of course, that vocal minority will be of no consequence, which will encourage it to be even more noisy. 

After a little while, Microsoft will announce X million users, and some will try to diminish the achievement by saying it's only people on game pass. In the meanwhile, when the Navigraph survey comes around, MSFS 2024 will be easily on top, and not by a small margin.

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45 minutes ago, Abriael said:

Predicting the outcome is pretty simple really. 

MSFS2024 will launch in a state that will be plenty enjoyable for 99% of users, just like MSFS 2020 did. 

It'll be one of the best-rated games of the year with slew and 9s and 10s out of 10, and around 95 on Metacritic. Yet, it won't win many Game of the Year awards because simulators aren't visible enough to encourage gaming media outlets to give them that kind of award. It wouldn't get the kind of engagement awards are all about (for the outlets).

A small but very vocal minority will nonetheless throw at it all kinds of negativity, seeking every little detail to nitpick and calling Asobo all sorts of synonyms of incompetent. Of course, that vocal minority will be of no consequence, which will encourage it to be even more noisy. 

After a little while, Microsoft will announce X million users, and some will try to diminish the achievement by saying it's only people on game pass. In the meanwhile, when the Navigraph survey comes around, MSFS 2024 will be easily on top, and not by a small margin.

You summed it up perfectly. Nothing to add.

On 10/13/2024 at 7:34 AM, lwt1971 said:

Meh, that's your take I guess...

He's certain he fully understands everything way better than the 100's of folks who got us to this point.  Too bad MS/A didn't hire him and fire the rest of managers there eh?🙃

Noel

System:  9900X3D Noctua NH-D15 G2, MSI Pro 650-P WiFi, G.SKILL  64GB (2 x 32GB) 288-Pin PC RAM DDR5 6000, WD NVMe 2Tb x 1, Sabrent NVMe 2Tb x 1, RTX 4090 FE, Corsair RM1000W PSU, Win11 Home, LG Ultra Curved Gsync Ultimate 3440x1440, Phanteks Enthoo Pro Case, TCA Boeing Edition Yoke & TQ, Cessna Trim Wheel, RTSS Framerate Limiter w/ Front Edge Sync.

Aircraft used in MSFS 2024:  Fenix A320,  Aerosoft CRJ, FBW, WT 787X, I-Fly 737 MAX 8, Citation Longitude.

 

23 hours ago, RobJC said:

Actually not true. They setup a sub forum so people can share their feedback. 

Where? I didn't see one during the test period.

  • Author
1 minute ago, Tuskin38 said:

Where? I didn't see one during the test period.

I think it is only accessible to those in the alpha. People were complaining on the official forums that that hadn’t been given access to it yet. 

7950X3D | RTX 4090 | 96GB DDR5 | 4K G-Sync | Win11 Pro

On 10/12/2024 at 12:42 AM, RobJC said:

So, what do you guys think? Is the launch going to be pretty smooth, a dumpster fire, or something in between? I am voting either it gets delayed or is a dumpster fire. I expect a lot of problems across the board and put a release delay at 50/50 right now. I am fine with them releasing it too early, because until it gets in enough user's hands issues won't get ironed out.  Super pumped about MSFS 2024 but I am a realist. No way this thing is ready in 5-6 weeks. Not in my opinion. I will be happy if the major issues are fixed by the end of the year. Long term this is going to be an amazing project (just like 2020) but patience is going to be a virtue. Great product. Awesome development team. Nothing but respect for these guys. 

Hoping for the best, but absolutely expecting the worst. 

I predict that there will be at least one thread named
"FS2024 is not ready ... and shouldn't have been released"

with lots of sub-standard comments.

Edited by Ojisan_alpha

I think once I install it, I'll love it. I'll go explore the world, enjoy some beautiful landscapes, sunrises and sunsets in exotic places of the world that I'll never visit. 

Then I will log on to this forum, have my rose colored glasses removed, and realize how misguided I was. 

9 hours ago, Ojisan_alpha said:

I predict that there will be at least one thread named
"FS2024 is not ready ... and shouldn't have been released"

with lots of sub-standard comments.

which got locked, not surprisingly.

I predict that there will be a similar thread again in the near future ....🤣

AMD 7800X3D, Windows 11, Gigabyte X670 AORUS Elite AX Motherboard, 64GB DDR5 G.SKILL Trident Z5 NEO RGB (AMD Expo), RTX 4090,  Samsung 980 PRO M.2 NVMe SSD 2 TB PCIe 4.0, Samsung 980 PRO M.2 NVMe SSD 1 TB PCIe 4.0, 4K resolution 50" TV @60Hz, VR: Pimax Crystal Light + HP Reverb G2 @ 90 Hz, Honeycomb Bravo Throttle Quadrant, be quiet 1000W PSU, Noctua NH-U12S chromax.black air cooler.

60-130 fps. no CPU overclocking.

very nice.

11 hours ago, OneOfMany said:

I think once I install it, I'll love it. I'll go explore the world, enjoy some beautiful landscapes, sunrises and sunsets in exotic places of the world that I'll never visit. 

Then I will log on to this forum, have my rose colored glasses removed, and realize how misguided I was. 

I can do that now in MSFS 2020, why didn't you get it?

Ryzen 5 3600 / RTX 2070 8GB / 2x8 RAM/

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