https://x.com/airmainengineer/status/1891800990317191428

It almost looks like their main gear has collapsed due to the hard landing. 

That's what I think happened. The airplane banked just as it did a hard landing, causing the gear to collapse and roll the airplane, then collapsing the wing and ending in its back. They are all very lucky that they survived.

The crosswind component was probably exceeded, then you add the snow and windy conditions, and that lead to the accident.

I think....

6 hours ago, CFIJose said:

That's what I think happened. The airplane banked just as it did a hard landing, causing the gear to collapse and roll the airplane, then collapsing the wing and ending in its back. They are all very lucky that they survived.

The crosswind component was probably exceeded, then you add the snow and windy conditions, and that lead to the accident.

I think....

 

 

Yeah, there seemed to be no flare at all, just slammed down onto the runway. Maybe there was wind shear or something?

On 2/18/2025 at 10:05 AM, jon b said:

It looked like something out of airplane.

Surely you can’t be serious. 😉

8 hours ago, martin-w said:

 

 

Yeah, there seemed to be no flare at all, just slammed down onto the runway. Maybe there was wind shear or something?

Not saying it wasn’t wind shear, but generally the cause of microbursts are formed in summer conditions not winter, if you look at every aviation accident due to wind shear since the 1950s they all happened during warm or hot summer conditions. 

if a gust of wind decreases suddenly that can lead to an increase in the rate of descent which is likely one of the contributors here, that combined with whiteout conditions contributes to some disorientation, fresh fallen snow blends with clouds on the horizon, so the horizon isn’t as visible and wind blowing snow over the runway makes it harder to see the edges of the runway, this contributes to judging when to flare, or go around due to some disorientation. Add that with a gust decreasing and the rate of descent increasing and not picking up on the usual visual cues become combination factors.

final factor would be crew experience or if they have enough winter experience, the last accident in this region was Colgan Air Flight 3407 in Buffalo and crew inexperience in winter conditions was a big factor in that incident. Crew inexperience is more common on these regional airliners

Edited February 19, 20251 yr by Matthew Kane

Getting a bit of industry insider intel on this one now.

The Female first officer was pilot flying , having been hired in January 2024 and only qualifying to be released from training last month January 2025, the unusual lengthy delay was due to “issues in training”

The rate of descent before touchdown was 1000 FPM.

I’m not expressing an opinion, just passing on information to those interested that’s been passed onto me, unsolicited I should add, I can’t vouch for it’s accuracy.

3 hours ago, Matthew Kane said:

Not saying it wasn’t wind shear, but generally the cause of microbursts are formed in summer conditions not winter, if you look at every aviation accident due to wind shear since the 1950s they all happened during warm or hot summer conditions. 

if a gust of wind decreases suddenly that can lead to an increase in the rate of descent which is likely one of the contributors here, that combined with whiteout conditions contributes to some disorientation, fresh fallen snow blends with clouds on the horizon, so the horizon isn’t as visible and wind blowing snow over the runway makes it harder to see the edges of the runway, this contributes to judging when to flare, or go around due to some disorientation. Add that with a gust decreasing and the rate of descent increasing and not picking up on the usual visual cues become combination factors.

final factor would be crew experience or if they have enough winter experience, the last accident in this region was Colgan Air Flight 3407 in Buffalo and crew inexperience in winter conditions was a big factor in that incident. Crew inexperience is more common on these regional airliners

Windshear and microburst are two different things. Windshear can appear without a microburst. 

18 minutes ago, jon b said:

Getting a bit of industry insider intel on this one now.

The Female first officer was pilot flying , having been hired in January 2024 and only qualifying to be released from training last month January 2025, the unusual lengthy delay was due to “issues in training”

The rate of descent before touchdown was 1000 FPM.

I’m not expressing an opinion, just passing on information to those interested that’s been passed onto me, unsolicited I should add, I can’t vouch for it’s accuracy.

Thank you for a disclaimer... Not to turn this political (this isn't about party lines, these are literal facts of what's happening), but whether it's true or not, it can create a VERY dangerous precedent. The current US administration has just fired 100s of air traffic controllers (a field that's short-staffed anyway)... They HAVE used DEI practices as a scapegoat after a Washington DC accident. Imagine if this turns out to be true, what kind of things they will latch onto here. What's next? Are they gonna start firing pilots? These are crazy times we live in. On the other hand, regional airline training IS something that needs to be examined. Are we putting underqualified pilots on the deck? The flipside of it are some of the European pilots I talk to that continue to lament the 1500 hr rule in the US, claiming it's excessive and that pilots in Europe are able to fly with much less AND more safely because of safer aviation regulations and practices. 

So many factors here. Best wait for NTSB to investigate and issue a report. Not that the US administration is going to wait for THAT - they are kind of known to fly off the handle with kneejerk reactions. 

9 minutes ago, BostonJeremy77 said:

So many factors here. Best wait for NTSB to investigate and issue a report. Not that the US administration is going to wait for THAT - they are kind of known to fly off the handle with kneejerk reactions. 

The crash happened in Toronto, Canada, which is still a sovereign nation. It will be investigated by the Transportation Safety Board of Canada, with assistance from the NTSB and the FAA, as has been reported.

Edited February 19, 20251 yr by JRMurray
Additional info

Answers are starting to roll in from Canadian news media...

 

 

 

 

18 minutes ago, BostonJeremy77 said:

On the other hand, regional airline training IS something that needs to be examined. Are we putting underqualified pilots on the deck? The flipside of it are some of the European pilots I talk to that continue to lament the 1500 hr rule in the US, claiming it's excessive and that pilots in Europe are able to fly with much less AND more safely because of safer aviation regulations and practices. 

I’m afraid I think that yes, we are putting under qualified pilots on the deck, or perhaps under skilled would be a more appropriate term. They are qualified in that they are licensed. But not all licensed pilots are equal, as we know.

I’m also afraid that being a European pilot myself and the stuff I’m seeing nowadays with some younger pilots is alarming. Comments like the one you mention about being able to fly with less experience and more safely than their FAA counterparts is a prime example.

A lot of these people simply don’t know what they don’t know, they presume they know it all because they can quote an ops manual at the captain and are completely unaware of their own limitations, as Clint famously said, a good man always knows his limitations!

Airline management are quite happy to fill the right seat with a trained monkey if they could as it suits their budget, but as we know , you pay peanuts….. However it’s the line captains that are having to take up the slack for the lack of experience in the right seat.

Long haul airlines were never training airlines, they traditionally employed FOs who had learnt their trade with several years on turbo-props or smaller jets, or moved sideways from other large jets. Nowadays people go straight onto an A320 or B737 with no hands on turboprop time. I’m seeing FOs now after a couple of years flying low cost move to long haul who can’t even talk on the radio properly.

Anyway, I’m not saying any of that applies to the Canadian incident, just making conversation.

Incidentally out of curiosity I've been looking at jobs in the US and having been in the left seat of large jets for 20 years it’s incredible to see the stuff I have to do to get qualified in the US, some sort of simulator course, written exams ,then a type rating and 1000 hours right seat before being able to take a command. It makes my life harder but I fully respect these requirements and think it’s a good thing.

22 minutes ago, Fielder said:

Answers are starting to roll in from Canadian news media...

I can see that between you and Ray I’ve been left with little option than to watch that all time classic in the next couple of days.

The factual data from 3 flight tracking services and enhanced images from a published video are presented on the crash of Delta Connection Flight 4819 (Endeavor Air) at Toronto Pearson International Airport, February 17, 2025. No attempt is made to speculate on the cause of this accident. With recovery of the voice and flight data recorders, we await the probable cause publication by the transportation safety board on DELTA FLIGHT 4819. Flight tracker data indicate a slow approach speed before touchdown and the video images show a flat landing with no flare before the impact. The emergency and rescue operations are to be congratulated for their efforts in the safety of all individuals involved in this CRJ9 landing accident. Your comments and discussion are welcome. FlightAware https://www.flightaware.com ADS-B exchange https://www.adsbexchange.com Flightradar24 https://www.flightradar24.com/43.68,-... Aviation Safety Network https://asn.flightsafety.org/wikibase...

Timestamps Introduction 0:09 Air Traffic Control Audio 0:53 Aircraft Specifications 1:17 Weather Conditions 1:34 ILS RWY 23 Waypoints 2:00 ADS-B Exchange Data 2:27 Last Data Points 2:57 Typical Touchdown Specs 3:27 Freeze Frame Images Enhanced 3:49 Video at 50% Speed 4:59 Summary of Data 5:36